Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX-GOV: Likely R
TX-LT GOV: Lean R
TX-AG: Lean R

Paxton and Patrick are likely to likely to lose than Abbott...

Nah, all of these races are Safe R.

TX isn't there yet for a flip, and 2022 isn't going to be a nice environment for Dems.

It's a Neutral Environment we only need 278 but last polls in PA and AZ show Fetterman up by nine and Kelly up by 4 over Brnovich ND Laura Kelly tied in KS


PBOWER2A say don't look at Approvals they will link up with Prez Approvals on Election night, Prez Approvaks matter in Prez races not so much Midterms

It was 50/45 NPVI on Election night 304 map and some not all polls show Biden level pegging at 50/45

Of course Traggy, Rassy and QU are purposely misleading us on 40 percent Approvals

[Blair]

The frustrating thing is that if he hadn't ran in 2020 he would at the very least be treated as a much more serious challenger.

[Calthrina950]

The frustrating thing is that if he hadn't ran in 2020 he would at the very least be treated as a much more serious challenger.

If he hadn't run in 2020, I could see O'Rourke holding Abbott to within 5%, given the polarizing policies which Abbott has enacted in the past few years. But instead, I'm expecting him to lose to Abbott by something similar to what Hegar lost by to Cornyn.

[President Johnson]

The frustrating thing is that if he hadn't ran in 2020 he would at the very least be treated as a much more serious challenger.

Or run against Cornyn instead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once Biden bills get fully enacted we can all Doom all we want but TX, OH and NC Senate can be winnable, we can predict the future but never know for certain

If I went to Vegas, I would not bet against Beto, Ryan, or Beasley

Ryan is running and is Bipartisan like Ruben Gallego

It's a Neutral cycle right now, but it can be different in August 22


Beto is a fresh and boyish face like DeSantis and don't forget we

Ds elected Beshear and his boyish looks and Ryan is a carbon copy of Beshear and his mentor is Ruben Gallego he tells it like it is like Ruben

We will make our Predictions, very soon and they won't look like a Neutral map, Rs are gonna make very R fav maps and D's very D friendly maps despite the rhetoric on the Forum

I know I will put Ryan, Beasley and Beto winning, I had McGrath winning and Harrison and they were underdogs

So19 if he wants can put Crist and Val winning it's called wave insurance for a reason, it's not must win states, since he feels strongly that Val and Crist both win

[Biden his time]

The Texan people will remember how fast Beta O'Rourke was about to sell away religious freedom for a few extra votes, just saying.

Anyone else running against Abbott on the Democratic side?

[Suburbia]

TX-GOV: Likely R
TX-LT GOV: Lean R
TX-AG: Lean R

Paxton and Patrick are likely to likely to lose than Abbott...

Nah, all of these races are Safe R.

TX isn't there yet for a flip, and 2022 isn't going to be a nice environment for Dems.

TX AG can be winnable

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a wave TX Gov is winnable Beto is only down 9

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto down by six because of the Border Crisis, he's DONE, he isn't winning Abbott 55/45

[Benjamin Frank]

Is any Democrat likely to run against Beto O'Rourke in the primary as the 'anti O'Rourke' candidate (Or ABo'R) 'anybody but O'Rourke.'

[Pericles]

The frustrating thing is that if he hadn't ran in 2020 he would at the very least be treated as a much more serious challenger.

If he hadn't run in 2020, I could see O'Rourke holding Abbott to within 5%, given the polarizing policies which Abbott has enacted in the past few years. But instead, I'm expecting him to lose to Abbott by something similar to what Hegar lost by to Cornyn.

538's data is interesting, that Abbott's approval ratings have gone bad this year. Still, I doubt that's toxic enough to lose despite partisanship.

[Calthrina950]

Is any Democrat likely to run against Beto O'Rourke in the primary as the 'anti O'Rourke' candidate (Or ABo'R) 'anybody but O'Rourke.'

I don't know who would, but it's possible. O'Rourke certainly isn't going to have as "smooth a sailing" to the nomination this time like he did in 2018.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The frustrating thing is that if he hadn't ran in 2020 he would at the very least be treated as a much more serious challenger.

If he hadn't run in 2020, I could see O'Rourke holding Abbott to within 5%, given the polarizing policies which Abbott has enacted in the past few years. But instead, I'm expecting him to lose to Abbott by something similar to what Hegar lost by to Cornyn.

538's data is interesting, that Abbott's approval ratings have gone bad this year. Still, I doubt that's toxic enough to lose despite partisanship.

Might see him losing, if Trump won.

[Calthrina950]

The frustrating thing is that if he hadn't ran in 2020 he would at the very least be treated as a much more serious challenger.

If he hadn't run in 2020, I could see O'Rourke holding Abbott to within 5%, given the polarizing policies which Abbott has enacted in the past few years. But instead, I'm expecting him to lose to Abbott by something similar to what Hegar lost by to Cornyn.

538's data is interesting, that Abbott's approval ratings have gone bad this year. Still, I doubt that's toxic enough to lose despite partisanship.

I'm not surprised that his approvals have worsened, and again, it won't cost him reelection. Abbott seems to have gone all in on being a staunch Trumpist and catering to the base following his last reelection bid. But then again, he's never been a "moderate", and I'm baffled now as to why so many people split their tickets between him and O'Rourke last time. Abbott is just as extreme as Cruz is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott isn't losing move on

Cornyn won by six pts over Hegar and Abbott is leading, in a Neutral Environment like 2020 Abbott's wins 55/45


Biden Approvals are near or below 50, it's a 303 map unless Biden gets above 50

Abbott won in a D wave over Valdez 55/45 in 18

Nate Silver 304 blue Wall

Polls want you to get excited it TX was winnable wouldn't they show us Da leading or tied in OH or NC Sen, they won't show us those poll numbers

[Frodo]

Is there any likelihood Matthew McConaughey could become the Arnold Schwarzenegger of Texas, if he actually decides to run?

SHOCK POLL: Matthew McConaughey Tops Texas Gov. Greg Abbott By 8 in Head-to-Head Matchup, Clobbers Beto Nearly 2-to-1

Matthew McConaghey’s chances of becoming Texas governor are looking alright, alright, alright according to a shocking new major poll.

According to a survey released by the University of Texas and the Dallas Morning News, the actor — in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup — tops current Gov. Greg Abbott (R) by 8 points. In all, 43 percent of respondents say they would back McConaughey, 35 percent would support Abbott, and 22 percent would pick someone else.

McConaughey fared even better against another prominent candidate in the 2022 race. According to the poll, the actor would trounce Democrat Beto O’Rourke in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup by a 49-27 margin. O’Rourke, who lost a Senate bid to Ted Cruz in 2018, then flopped as a presidential candidate in 2020, officially threw his hat in the ring earlier this week.

However:

In a three-way race, however, the survey found O’Rourke and McConaughey would split the anti-Abbott vote and allow the governor to win reelection. The poll has Abbott at 37, McConaughey at 27, and O’Rourke at 26. O’Rourke, in that three-way battle, garnered 74 percent of the Democratic vote. But if McConaughey proves to be a viable candidate, it seems plausible that he could gain more Democratic support — should he end up as the most likely opponent to defeat Abbott.

Perhaps Beto should reconsider his candidacy. 

[Biden his time]

Is there any likelihood Matthew McConaughey could become the Arnold Schwarzenegger of Texas, if he actually decides to run?

SHOCK POLL: Matthew McConaughey Tops Texas Gov. Greg Abbott By 8 in Head-to-Head Matchup, Clobbers Beto Nearly 2-to-1

Matthew McConaghey’s chances of becoming Texas governor are looking alright, alright, alright according to a shocking new major poll.

According to a survey released by the University of Texas and the Dallas Morning News, the actor — in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup — tops current Gov. Greg Abbott (R) by 8 points. In all, 43 percent of respondents say they would back McConaughey, 35 percent would support Abbott, and 22 percent would pick someone else.

McConaughey fared even better against another prominent candidate in the 2022 race. According to the poll, the actor would trounce Democrat Beto O’Rourke in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup by a 49-27 margin. O’Rourke, who lost a Senate bid to Ted Cruz in 2018, then flopped as a presidential candidate in 2020, officially threw his hat in the ring earlier this week.

Hope so! He's alright, alright, alright!

[Calthrina950]

Is there any likelihood Matthew McConaughey could become the Arnold Schwarzenegger of Texas, if he actually decides to run?

SHOCK POLL: Matthew McConaughey Tops Texas Gov. Greg Abbott By 8 in Head-to-Head Matchup, Clobbers Beto Nearly 2-to-1

Matthew McConaghey’s chances of becoming Texas governor are looking alright, alright, alright according to a shocking new major poll.

According to a survey released by the University of Texas and the Dallas Morning News, the actor — in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup — tops current Gov. Greg Abbott (R) by 8 points. In all, 43 percent of respondents say they would back McConaughey, 35 percent would support Abbott, and 22 percent would pick someone else.

McConaughey fared even better against another prominent candidate in the 2022 race. According to the poll, the actor would trounce Democrat Beto O’Rourke in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup by a 49-27 margin. O’Rourke, who lost a Senate bid to Ted Cruz in 2018, then flopped as a presidential candidate in 2020, officially threw his hat in the ring earlier this week.

However:

In a three-way race, however, the survey found O’Rourke and McConaughey would split the anti-Abbott vote and allow the governor to win reelection. The poll has Abbott at 37, McConaughey at 27, and O’Rourke at 26. O’Rourke, in that three-way battle, garnered 74 percent of the Democratic vote. But if McConaughey proves to be a viable candidate, it seems plausible that he could gain more Democratic support — should he end up as the most likely opponent to defeat Abbott.

Perhaps Beto should reconsider his candidacy. 

If McConaughey does run as an independent, we would merely see a repeat of 2006, with Abbott winning reelection by plurality like his predecessor Rick Perry did.

[Frodo]

Is there any likelihood Matthew McConaughey could become the Arnold Schwarzenegger of Texas, if he actually decides to run?

SHOCK POLL: Matthew McConaughey Tops Texas Gov. Greg Abbott By 8 in Head-to-Head Matchup, Clobbers Beto Nearly 2-to-1

Matthew McConaghey’s chances of becoming Texas governor are looking alright, alright, alright according to a shocking new major poll.

According to a survey released by the University of Texas and the Dallas Morning News, the actor — in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup — tops current Gov. Greg Abbott (R) by 8 points. In all, 43 percent of respondents say they would back McConaughey, 35 percent would support Abbott, and 22 percent would pick someone else.

McConaughey fared even better against another prominent candidate in the 2022 race. According to the poll, the actor would trounce Democrat Beto O’Rourke in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup by a 49-27 margin. O’Rourke, who lost a Senate bid to Ted Cruz in 2018, then flopped as a presidential candidate in 2020, officially threw his hat in the ring earlier this week.

However:

In a three-way race, however, the survey found O’Rourke and McConaughey would split the anti-Abbott vote and allow the governor to win reelection. The poll has Abbott at 37, McConaughey at 27, and O’Rourke at 26. O’Rourke, in that three-way battle, garnered 74 percent of the Democratic vote. But if McConaughey proves to be a viable candidate, it seems plausible that he could gain more Democratic support — should he end up as the most likely opponent to defeat Abbott.

Perhaps Beto should reconsider his candidacy.  

If McConaughey does run as an independent, we would merely see a repeat of 2006, with Abbott winning reelection by plurality like his predecessor Rick Perry did.

I wonder if he might be better served challenging Beto O'Rourke in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

[Frodo]

Masculinity-obsessed Republicans (especially in Texas) can't question his:

I really liked this movie.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Lean R you know the spill if Biden is less than 50 it's a 3o4 map if he is greater than 50 it's a 413 map his Approvals are 45/50 it's a Neutral Environment and FL would flip before TX anyways because Biden lost FL by 3 and TX by six

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I'll be the first person to start a 'Marxists for McConaughey'™ group if he gets in; I can't stand Beto's narcissism.

But for real, I really hope McConaughey gets in as an independent. I understand he'll have to probably straddle a fine line and throw some light red meat to Conservative leaning independent, this being Texas and all. But at the same time, he'll represent a real chance for us to pass election reform, healthcare expansion, minimum wage increases and other progressive ideas that are popular, just not with the (D) name attached.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

McConaughey isn't going to beat Abbott head to head. However there's a slight (very slight) possibility he could allow Beto to eke out a plurality if he ran as an independent, if he becomes a repository for disaffected Republicans, so I'll go with that.

That somewhat happened in 2006. Both Carole Strayhorn (who basically was a Republican) and Kinky Friedman who ran a bit of left-leaning campaign but kind of collapsed at the end and basically came a generic protest vote probably took more votes from Perry. However Chris Bell was a pretty lousy candidate who bled a lot of support to them as well, allowing Perry to win with a <40% plurality. Democrats should've ran Bill White that year, he actually might've stood a chance under those circumstances.

[S019]

It's only Democrats who come up with these galaxy brained schemes of thinking that left-leaning independents would take equally from both sides, or even take more from the right than the left, and then people wonder why Democrats lose elections. It isn't because of being "out of touch" or anything (whatever that means), it's because of dumb consultant brain, such as these galaxy-brained ideas, let me just say I'm very glad neither ibizzbee nor BRTD are DNC strategists.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto isn't down by 9 he is only down by six, 45/39 the same amount as CRIST is to DeSantis 51l45 it's not far fetched that CRIST or Beto win