Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am guessing Beto is jumping into this race to push DC D's Sinema and Manchin on VR this race and FL will get more competitive if VR passes, Rs are benefiting from the blockade on VR and it's all Simema and Manchin fault, we could have been passed VR over the Summer with a Filibuster carve out, the two wasted so much time

[TML]

Please remember that even though O'Rourke tried to run a Sanders-lite campaign in 2018, a subsequent review of his track record revealed that he actually took plenty of contributions from the oil and gas industry in TX (about $430K - 3/4 of which were big-dollar donations over $200 - during the 2018 election cycle, which is second only to his opponent Ted Cruz), and voted with Republicans to deregulate big business more often than the average Congressional Democrat during the Trump administration. This suggests to me that even if by some chance he does unseat Abbott, we shouldn't be too quick to assume that he would actually implement good climate & power-related policies once in office. I certainly hope that whoever his primary challenger(s) may be can hit him on this aggressively and make him try to overcome this if he really wants the Democratic nomination for governor.

[Inmate Trump]

Beto's going to be hit hard by constant replaying of his "hell, yea I'm going to take your guns" quote from his presidential campaign.

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe R -> Safe R.

This would even be an uphill battle in an R-midterms, but with these partisan winds we're likely going to see in 2022, Beto isn't standing a chance. Yup, state level races are less nationalized, though TX hasn't really departed from its partisan lean in such elections. This is different in red states like MT or KY (or MA, VT vise versa).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto can win an upset this is more flippable than FL, when Biden recovers from his 41)38 percent Approvals we don't know after 2 Spending bills are passed and Debt Ceiling what Manchin abd Sinema are gonna do on Debt Ceiling and we have dozen of H Seats that we need to win to hold the H anyways

Biden wont be at 41or 38% Approvals in ABC OR USA TODAY SECULAR POLLS A YR FROM NOW

R2K polls had Ted Strickland and Lee Fisher beating Portman and Kasich a yr before an election we all know how that turned out trusting polls a yr out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R -> Safe R.

This would even be an uphill battle in an R-midterms, but with these partisan winds we're likely going to see in 2022, Beto isn't standing a chance. Yup, state level races are less nationalized, though TX hasn't really departed from its partisan lean in such elections. This is different in red states like MT or KY (or MA, VT vise versa).

It's wave insurence you don't make bold predictions, Cook has NC even with Biden at 41 a Tossup Senate RACES

Biden wont be 41 percent a yr from now as I have repeadily said Abbott is likely leading by 10 that will disappear in a yr where DeSantis is up by 12 and he has Rubio a Cuban and He had Surfside, Biden commended DeSajtis for bravery in Surfside

It's still a VBM not same-day voting despite what happened in VA T Mac was a retread anyways

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Lmao! Safe R, Abbott +17

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1460255699364155394?s=20

In this midterm environment, I don't think this is that much of a stretch. My guess is R+12 on the low end and R+16 on the high end.

[ElectionsGuy]

He's a weaker candidate now running in a much worse year for his party. He's going to lose by much more than he did to Cruz. Though I still think Abbott's margin will be less than in 2018, because of the naturally polarizing issues he's embraced which may alienate some independents in a way he didn't in 2018.

[S019]

The goal isn't for him to win it's just to keep it close enough so that Democrats don't get destroyed up and down the ticket a la Nevada 2014.

[John Dule]

If Beto O'Rourke ever holds elected office again in my life, I will send my Social Security Number to each of the next ten people to post in this thread. You can quote this comment if it's ever relevant (which it won't be).

[lfromnj]

If Beto O'Rourke ever holds elected office again in my life, I will send my Social Security Number to each of the next ten people to post in this thread. You can quote this comment if it's ever relevant (which it won't be).

So this thread as well?

[Real Texan Politics]

If Beto O'Rourke ever holds elected office again in my life, I will send my Social Security Number to each of the next ten people to post in this thread. You can quote this comment if it's ever relevant (which it won't be).

So this thread as well?

I guess so

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bold, gutsy. Never change, Dule!

[S019]

If Beto O'Rourke ever holds elected office again in my life, I will send my Social Security Number to each of the next ten people to post in this thread. You can quote this comment if it's ever relevant (which it won't be).

Hi

Bold, gutsy. Never change, Dule!

Well O'Rourke's path is uphill but he surely has one and if he outperforms expectations yet again, you can expect that he's going to get a lot of calls to challenge Cruz in 2024 or Cornyn in 2026.

[S019]

Well it seems Democrats have learned from the Virginia disaster:

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1461137623221735433

So much for them having "bad political instincts," don't get me wrong I expect him to lose, but definitely a sign that Democrats have learned the right lessons from Virginia and not the wrong ones.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well it seems Democrats have learned from the Virginia disaster:

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1461137623221735433

So much for them having "bad political instincts," don't get me wrong I expect him to lose, but definitely a sign that Democrats have learned the right lessons from Virginia and not the wrong ones.

CRIST and Val are done by double digits too, CRIST down by 12 and Val is DOWN BY A WHOPPING 19 PTS 😲😲😲😲

[Del Tachi]

He’s not going to win, but if he puts forward the same amount of work meeting with and registering voters like he did in 2018, it will only continue to help Democrats moving forward in Texas.

This is basically the entire point, no matter what anyone says.

No, the entire point is that a vanity run by Beto for TX-GOV is good income potential.  Beto is a known fundraising commodity and liberals still have wet dreams about flipping TX, so Beto will do very well at siphoning away money from more winnable races  to feed his ego.

[Alben Barkley]

Safe R with Beto.

Less predictable with McConaughey.

[Agonized-Statism]

O'Rourke is a non-starter. Don't like him at all, but it has to suck to fizzle out time and time again. I expected him to at least get some kind of federal position (what happened to that vague gun czar promise?).

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think that Beto will perform much more strongly than most of you think. He's a uniquely talented retail politician who is being underestimated because posters are wrongly conflating his bad instincts in interacting with national media with being a "bad politician". Even if he is treated as a kind of joke, Abbott is governing in a very polarizing way that guarantees that Beto will receive ~45% of the vote or something like that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After the Rittenhouse verdict and stand your ground laws it's Safe R, Beto is too left wing on Guns to be Gov


If Beto was really competetive, a poll would be showing him ahead, but last poll had him down by nine ots

[Agonized-Statism]

I think that Beto will perform much more strongly than most of you think. He's a uniquely talented retail politician who is being underestimated because posters are wrongly conflating his bad instincts in interacting with national media with being a "bad politician". Even if he is treated as a kind of joke, Abbott is governing in a very polarizing way that guarantees that Beto will receive ~45% of the vote or something like that.

I would probably predict a stronger performance than most posters, who are overreacting to his fairly close loss in 2018 and Texas' results in general in 2020, but there's a big coalition Texas Democrats need to pull together and it's fair to doubt his ability to do that. Of course lots of people are horrified with the way Texas Republicans handled the freeze and all this craziness Abbott is doing to sate the grassroots conservatives, but can O'Rourke really play the reformist fighter while also pulling over some small business conservatives? How will he walk the line on social issues? What will he do to address perceptions of inauthenticity? Most importantly, will he be able to harness the latino vote? Not to mention there's lots of gaffes that can drag down his campaign, like the gun comment.

I see Democrat victories in Texas in the 2020s, but I don't know if 2022 is it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think that Beto will perform much more strongly than most of you think. He's a uniquely talented retail politician who is being underestimated because posters are wrongly conflating his bad instincts in interacting with national media with being a "bad politician". Even if he is treated as a kind of joke, Abbott is governing in a very polarizing way that guarantees that Beto will receive ~45% of the vote or something like that.

I would probably predict a stronger performance than most posters, who are overreacting to his fairly close loss in 2018 and Texas' results in general in 2020, but there's a big coalition Texas Democrats need to pull together and it's fair to doubt his ability to do that. Of course lots of people are horrified with the way Texas Republicans handled the freeze and all this craziness Abbott is doing to sate the grassroots conservatives, but can O'Rourke really play the reformist fighter while also pulling over some small business conservatives? How will he walk the line on social issues? What will he do to address perceptions of inauthenticity? Most importantly, will he be able to harness the latino vote? Not to mention there's lots of gaffes that can drag down his campaign, like the gun comment.

I see Democrat victories in Texas in the 2020s, but I don't know if 2022 is it.

Biden Approvals near 50 percent is a 304 map not a 412 map, the Da tried hard last time to get TX/FL and failed

[Suburbia]

TX-GOV: Likely R
TX-LT GOV: Lean R
TX-AG: Lean R

Paxton and Patrick are likely to likely to lose than Abbott...

[Sir Mohamed]

TX-GOV: Likely R
TX-LT GOV: Lean R
TX-AG: Lean R

Paxton and Patrick are likely to likely to lose than Abbott...

Nah, all of these races are Safe R.

TX isn't there yet for a flip, and 2022 isn't going to be a nice environment for Dems.