Texas 2022 megathread

[Rookie Yinzer]

He loses by double digits.

I agree with you for once lol

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Abbott will easily win over perennial candidate O'Rourke by double digits.

This. I think the TX Democrats will regret trotting this guy out there again, especially after he let the mask slip on his second amendment views.

[MT Treasurer]

The most interesting thing about this race (other than the RGV/South TX & Hispanic trends) will be whether Abbott wins by a narrower margin than DeSantis and whether this marks the beginning of a long-term shift in which TX becomes less Republican than FL both in terms of likelihood and margin (unfortunately, there’s no Senate race in TX in 2022 to compare to FL). I’m expecting Abbott to win by high single digits, but TX Republicans are very lucky that Trump lost in 2020.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Lmao! Safe R, Abbott +17

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1460255699364155394?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

McConaughey needs to run as a Dem/Independent or this is a guaranteed loss.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McConaughey needs to run as a Dem/Independent or this is a guaranteed loss.

He's not running he gave a boost to Beto campaign

[Real Texan Politics]

Third time's a charm?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Either this is an audition for a Biden Cabinet post, or he's really badly advised. Running in 2022 but not 2020 is electoral suicide.

[Mr. Illini]

Terrible announcement video. Why would you mention job creation when it has to be Abbott's #1 thing to run on? And your "big vision" alternative is legalizing marijuana???

He almost convinced me that Abbott is a better choice!

[😥]

Yeah, O'Rourke is just becoming a perennial candidate. McConaughey would be far better

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do users think McCounghey is gonna run Abbott is the clear Fav since Biden border policy has made this a 304 EC map, you see how Demings is doing in a border crisis and she reminds voters of Harris she is 12 pts down

We have a pro immigrant Gov I'm Newsom and he is poor

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

God speed you brave fool

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Yeah, O'Rourke is just becoming a perennial candidate. McConaughey would be far better

At what point does this occur? Like seeing descriptions of John James as a perennial candidate just seems wrong. He's not running for random seats whenever possible, it was only two times. It seems the same for Robert here, with him having made one close af race, his god awful "just made for it" presidential campaign, and now this run for governor. Does the prez race really turn him into a perennial candidate?

[_.]

Beta O'Rourke will only hurt the Texas Democratic Party.

Only question is R+10 or R+15?

[S019]

The most interesting thing about this race (other than the RGV/South TX & Hispanic trends) will be whether Abbott wins by a narrower margin than DeSantis and whether this marks the beginning of a long-term shift in which TX becomes less Republican than FL both in terms of likelihood and margin (unfortunately, there’s no Senate race in TX in 2022 to compare to FL). I’m expecting Abbott to win by high single digits, but TX Republicans are very lucky that Trump lost in 2020.

More or less where I am, I want to see if he can do better than Hillary, which would already be an improvement from Hegar's 2020 performance, also I want to see if the massive inroads that Democrats made in the suburbs from 2016-2020 will continue in a Republican leaning year. I do still think Republicans have more upside in TX than FL, and personally I don't expect that to reverse until either 2024-2028. Anyways let's just say if O'Rourke can do better than Hillary, that'd be a good sign, especially against a Republican not-named Trump, if he can match Biden (unlikely, but I guess could happen if trends accelerate or Abbott's issues weigh him down), that should send alarm bells at Ted Cruz HQ as well as the RNC, because that'd show a. Texas is trending D and it's not just b/c of Trump and b. It'd put in a range where it'd be very winnable for Dems in 2024, this will be an interesting race to watch, even if the outcome is (likely) decided, margins and swings are going to tell the real stories in this one.

[Suburbia]

Likely R

The only offices TXDP can pick up are LG and AG

[PoliticsWatcher1]

Abbott is winning easily.

[Real Texan Politics]

Well that's pretty much the race. With Beto now in, he's a shoe-in to the democratic nomination. I expect just about every high profile Texas democrat to endorse him for governor.

Abbott will most likely win his primary, but it will definitely be more competitive than the democratic primary (even if neither are really all that competitive in the first place). While Beto will likely win every county in his primary except for a few rural ones where no one votes in the dem primary, there's a chance that one of Abbott's challengers (likely Huffines and/or West) may win a few rural counties in the republican primary, though this won't change the fact that Abbott is most likely to win the primary.

As of right now, my prediction for the race is R+9-10. If this were a Trump midterm, Abbott would likely only hold on by around 5-6. Beto, due to his higher profile status, will almost certainly do a much better job at energizing voters than Lupe Valdez in 2018, not to mention this will highly likely become a nationalized race. It also helps Beto and the dems that there are multiple big issues to run on against Abbott and the republicans, most notably the power grid failure, abortion, guns, and voting rights. On the other hand, Abbott and the GOP have their own issues to energize their base on, most notably the economy, border crisis, medical freedom, oil and gas, and education/CRT. If we start seeing multiple scandals arise from schools in Texas, the latter issue will certainly help Abbott just like it did with Youngkin in Virginia this year.

Those are just my 2 cents for right now. Let me know what y'all think!

[_.]

Those are just my 2 cents for right now. Let me know what y'all think!

I think it's gotta be worth more than two cents
Great analysis!

I'm surprised you didn't mention O'Rourke's unpopularity and extreme failure in polls, though
Do you expect that Democrat-leaners who may have been turned off by his comments may be forced into his lane due to polarization and nationalization, or will they look towards Abbott's relative moderate image (if he has one)?

Also, what do you expect to occur in the crucial counties of Tarrant, Collin, and Denton?

[Meatball Ron]

Abbott's relative moderate image

Absolutely not a thing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well that's pretty much the race. With Beto now in, he's a shoe-in to the democratic nomination. I expect just about every high profile Texas democrat to endorse him for governor.

Abbott will most likely win his primary, but it will definitely be more competitive than the democratic primary (even if neither are really all that competitive in the first place). While Beto will likely win every county in his primary except for a few rural ones where no one votes in the dem primary, there's a chance that one of Abbott's challengers (likely Huffines and/or West) may win a few rural counties in the republican primary, though this won't change the fact that Abbott is most likely to win the primary.

As of right now, my prediction for the race is R+9-10. If this were a Trump midterm, Abbott would likely only hold on by around 5-6. Beto, due to his higher profile status, will almost certainly do a much better job at energizing voters than Lupe Valdez in 2018, not to mention this will highly likely become a nationalized race. It also helps Beto and the dems that there are multiple big issues to run on against Abbott and the republicans, most notably the power grid failure, abortion, guns, and voting rights. On the other hand, Abbott and the GOP have their own issues to energize their base on, most notably the economy, border crisis, medical freedom, oil and gas, and education/CRT. If we start seeing multiple scandals arise from schools in Texas, the latter issue will certainly help Abbott just like it did with Youngkin in Virginia this year.

Those are just my 2 cents for right now. Let me know what y'all think!

Your flawed data is only correct if Biden Approvals stay exactly where they're at now, 41%, Beto is young he is a fresh face and Biden won't be at 41% on Nov 22 more like 50



If we go by Approvals a yr before Election Ted Strickland would have been reelected, he was leading Kaich in R2K polls in 2009

We won't know until Aug 22 what Biden Approvals are, users need to be patient and wait until campaign begins

[Real Texan Politics]

Those are just my 2 cents for right now. Let me know what y'all think!

I think it's gotta be worth more than two cents
Great analysis!

I'm surprised you didn't mention O'Rourke's unpopularity and extreme failure in polls, though
Do you expect that Democrat-leaners who may have been turned off by his comments may be forced into his lane due to polarization and nationalization, or will they look towards Abbott's relative moderate image (if he has one)?

Also, what do you expect to occur in the crucial counties of Tarrant, Collin, and Denton?

All 3 are swinging dem from 2018, but won't vote as dem as they did in 2020, especially since statewide republicans do a lot better than Trump in Texas.

I'd expect Tarrant to be somewhere around R+7, Collin R+9, Denton R+13. Each of them could be a couple points more republican that I stated, but still close to that number.

To answer your other question, I think much of the stuff that went down this year (power grid, abortion bill, etc) has made Abbott a more polarizing figure than 2018. Yes, Beto's comments will hurt him, especially the "hell yes" and taxing churches gaffes from his presidential campaign. Yes, those said comments will be on every attack ad towards Beto this time. There are certainly gonna be some dems who may have been turned off by those comments who come back to him because the alternative is "mUh Texas Taliban." Although if Matthew McConaughey decides to step in as an independent, we could see many of those voters flock to him instead, making for a very interesting 3-way race.

[xavier110]

What’s in it for Beto? Doesn’t this set him up worse for ‘24 than simply skipping this race? I don’t really get the strategy behind this decision.

[patzer]

What’s in it for Beto? Doesn’t this set him up worse for ‘24 than simply skipping this race? I don’t really get the strategy behind this decision.

I suspect he's in it because he thinks he can win.

To be fair, there is a path to victory- it's just narrow. Beto needs a combination of several factors such as- voters not being too enraged at his gun stance thanks to finding other issues more important; ability to attract the sorts of suburban voters who'd have gone for Youngkin in VA (e.g. clearly favouring parents having a say in education); most likely casting himself as a more independent-minded candidate so as to not make it a de facto referendum on Joe Biden; campaigning among and winning back Clinton-Trump Hispanic voters; finding attacks on Abbott that hit (whether it be the power grid or any future events that happen).

The one thing Beto has in his favour is populism and the campaigning ability- he certainly wouldn't neglect South Texas Hispanic voters in the way Biden did, for example.

Unfortunately for him there's still a pretty heavy trend against him- Dem midterm, somewhat tainted image with the gun comments, state is still generally Lean R for now, and he's less of a new/trendy figure now. I don't fancy his chances. But, there is a path (though narrow), and I absolutely expect him to be trying his hardest for it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto can win this race, we also have very competitive H be seats in TX, we can't go without a Gubernatorial election without having a nominee anyways or else Rs are gonna sweep the competetive H races

We also need VR to pass, we don't know what Manchin will do once all the Spending bills and Debt Ceiling is passed, that is the time to reform the Filibuster

We won't know if we won't try but  Conservatives thinking that Biden will be at 41% Approvals are fooling themselves