Texas 2022 megathread

[Cyrusman]

Beto bungled anx chance to make this kind of competitive by running 4 prez as a very liberal candidate. Race is Likely R at best.

I don't think a lot of people remember that by now. Like they remember he did it, but not the substance. Plus, I can see him being a turnout machine again for liberals.

If he had gone away since then and done nothing, then he'd be remembered for that, but he's been very active in TX since early 2020 in voter registration efforts.

Are peoples memories that bad?

[wbrocks67]

Beto bungled anx chance to make this kind of competitive by running 4 prez as a very liberal candidate. Race is Likely R at best.

I don't think a lot of people remember that by now. Like they remember he did it, but not the substance. Plus, I can see him being a turnout machine again for liberals.

If he had gone away since then and done nothing, then he'd be remembered for that, but he's been very active in TX since early 2020 in voter registration efforts.

Are peoples memories that bad?

I just don't think it's relevant. It was nearly two years ago at this point. That's an eternity in politics.

[Mr. Smith]

Still think he should do what Feingold couldn't in 2016 and take on Ted Cruz again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto bungled anx chance to make this kind of competitive by running 4 prez as a very liberal candidate. Race is Likely R at best.

I don't think a lot of people remember that by now. Like they remember he did it, but not the substance. Plus, I can see him being a turnout machine again for liberals.

If he had gone away since then and done nothing, then he'd be remembered for that, but he's been very active in TX since early 2020 in voter registration efforts.

Are peoples memories that bad?

I just don't think it's relevant. It was nearly two years ago at this point. That's an eternity in politics.

Beto hasn't even officially announced and so many users think that he is definitely gonna be Gov of TX


News flash Abbott just made it tough to vote

[Sir Mohamed]

Beto bungled any chance to make this kind of competitive by running 4 prez as a very liberal candidate. Race is Likely R at best.

I don't think a lot of people remember that by now. Like they remember he did it, but not the substance. Plus, I can see him being a turnout machine again for liberals.

If he had gone away since then and done nothing, then he'd be remembered for that, but he's been very active in TX since early 2020 in voter registration efforts.

The GOP just needs to run clips from the 2019 Dem debate with Beto saying "hell yes, we take your AK-15s away". As prez candidate, he clearly run a national campaign for the Democratic nomination, which is vastly different from running in a GE in a red state.

Steve Bullock find of suffered from the same fate. Now, I don't believe he would have won the senate race last year, but the Steve Bullock of 2016 was for sure a better candidate in MT than the Steve Bullock of 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

In spite of the somwhat sensationalist title, this is a lengthy piece well worth reading to gain a clearer understanding of the reasons behind some the recent R shifts in South Texas (although it’s not limited to that often strereotyped region):

"Why Democrats Are Losing Texas Latinos"
By Jack Herrera
Texas Monthly

Excerpt, which undescores that larger shifts like that are (as is generally the case in electoral politics/voting behavior) driven by a combination of ideology, outreach, and identity-

There are three main theories on what’s driving Tejano voters’ shift toward Republicans. One, embraced in part by Cuellar, is that the movement toward Trump, who was uniquely attractive to some Tejano voters, was a fluke. Many down-ballot Democrats won a larger percentage of the vote in South Texas than Biden did. Tejanos I spoke with across the Rio Grande Valley—male and female—were attracted specifically to Trump’s brutish and unapologetic masculinity, his machismo. He also had a remarkable ability to reach people who felt left behind in an elite-driven economic system. And he benefited from the decision by Democrats to campaign by phone and text rather than in person. For all these reasons, some believe the 2020 results are unlikely to be repeated in 2022.

The other two hypotheses, however, suggest the party faces a more challenging future. According to Shor, the Democratic base has shifted recently in ways that might be hurting it among Hispanic voters across the country. In the past four years, Democrats have self-consciously invested heavily in the political priorities of progressive, well-paid, highly educated Americans who live in big cities and suburbs. Often maligned as “woke” politics, tacking left socially has helped Democrats attract and energize young white liberals, while at the same time alienating conservative and moderate Hispanic and, to some extent, Black Americans. While the Republican gains in South Texas were large enough to flip entire counties, Hispanic neighborhoods across the country—from East San Jose, California, to South Tucson, Arizona—also shifted toward the GOP, even as Democrats maintained comfortable leads in the final totals. The party historically has needed more than 60 percent of the Hispanic electorate to win on the national level. If it is losing conservative Hispanic voters, it could be facing an extinction-level event.

The final theory does not portend doom for national Democrats but is nevertheless dour news for the party’s chances of flipping Texas. Even if Hispanic voters across the country largely stay blue, Tejanos, like Cubanos in Miami, may be outliers: “The Rio Grande Valley is just super weird,” in Shor’s words. Though the language of “trying to be white” is crude and ascribes intent that may or may not exist, it’s clear that political anxieties were powerful enough to overcome traditional party allegiances in 2020. And that suggests that Tejano identity is changing. Tejanos, like the Irish Americans before them, may continue to align more closely with the interests shared by their Anglo neighbors than with those of immigrants and people of color.

Regardless of which theory proves most prescient, the Texas GOP is enjoying a ripe opportunity to court a large new bloc of voters. On a Sunday this spring, as the borderlands began to feel the first inklings of the stifling heat of summer, Tyler Kraus, the former chairman of the Webb County Republican party, drove out to South Laredo to canvass. It was well before he’d typically start going door-to-door in a nonelection year, and even though he wouldn’t be campaigning for Trump that day, he wore a red “Keep America Great” hat and was primed to get ugly looks. Neighborhoods in South Laredo are almost 100 percent Hispanic, and their residents are some of the poorest in the city.

The first question Kraus, who is Mexican American on his mother’s side, had for those who opened their doors was “¿Inglés o español?” Then he’d launch into a pitch in the prospective voter’s preferred language, usually framed around protecting the Second Amendment or opposing abortion. “We’re basically trying to tell them that the Republican party aligns with their values,” he told me.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/democrats-losing-texas-latinos-trump/

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

New drinking game.

Take a drink anytime a post mentioning Beto is followed up by the "Hell yes we'll take your AK-15s" quote

[Real Texan Politics]

New drinking game.

Take a drink anytime a post mentioning Beto is followed up by the "Hell yes we'll take your AK-15s" quote

Do the same every time an attack ad mentions the quote too.

[Real Texan Politics]

Something tells me the potential dem candidates are probably waiting for Beto to make a decision before they jump in the race, considering Beto is practically a shoe-in to the nomination.

Probably explains why no dem has announced besides a public educator with no wikipedia page.

[progressive85]

Yeah totally.  If Beto hadn't done that glory-seeking vanity campaign for President (i mean dude didn't even get elected to the Senate in 2018 and yet he wants a promotion into the White House) and gone bonkers, and if he'd just worked hard for the past few years building up the state party (and he could have did it too), he'd actually be in a really good position to run for Governor of Texas.  And possibly win the damn thing... which would have in turn made him instant presidential material. 

Sometimes pure naked ambition can backfire on you like a bitch.

[NotSoLucky]

Given the new "protections" for partisan poll watchers, I imagine that the 2022 election would be an absolute sh!t show. I imagine that there will be a flood of republican poll watchers violently harrassing voters and poll workers. Abbott and his cronies want to turn Texas into a far right Evangelical sh!thole, and will stop at nothing to keep their iron grip on Texan politics even if 59% of the residents don't approve of it.

Yeah totally.  If Beto hadn't done that glory-seeking vanity campaign for President (i mean dude didn't even get elected to the Senate in 2018 and yet he wants a promotion into the White House) and gone bonkers, and if he'd just worked hard for the past few years building up the state party (and he could have did it too), he'd actually be in a really good position to run for Governor of Texas.  And possibly win the damn thing... which would have in turn made him instant presidential material. 

Sometimes pure naked ambition can backfire on you like a bitch.

Yeah, I agree it was really arrogant of O'Rourke to say "We're gonna take your AR-15" especially being from a state with a high percentage of gun owners. Even without that comment though, I still feel it was a mistake for him to run for president. Had he focused on Texas politics like Abrams did with Georgia, he would have much higher chances. But all his presidential campaign did was make him look vain and arrogant.

[Heebie Jeebie]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1439614278374412292

[Real Texan Politics]

Let’s see if he’ll follow through with that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news, Abbott is vulnerable and so is DeSantis, we need a big name for our H seats

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GiancarloSopo/status/1439627663438716934


He’s underwater by 12 points overall in Texas

[Real Texan Politics]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GiancarloSopo/status/1439627663438716934


He’s underwater by 12 points overall in Texas

The Texas GOP better do some good campaigning down in south Texas, especially in the RGV and maybe Laredo, Del Rio, and El Paso. Hit Beto and the dems on the border crisis, and show the images and videos in attack ads, that could be a good strategy.

But the doomer side of me thinks they'll just play the "hell yes" quote 100 times before they show any of that.

[BoiseBoy]

Beto would make it closer than any other Democrat right now, but Abbott has a massive advantage and will easily win by 10 or more points, unless something changes drastically in the next year.

[Suburbia]

Latinos are a Democratic base bloc....they are Lean D....but Texas and Florida Latinos are different----Latinos are not super monolithic.....

California Latinos are Democratic-leaning, Florida and Texas Latinos are Republican-leaning

Latinos are Lean/Likely D.....

[Utah Neolib]

Still think he should do what Feingold couldn't in 2016 and take on Ted Cruz again.

Scott Kelly or Collin Allred, or one of the border dems would be a far better candidate

[Matty]

Beta o'dork once SHAMEFULLY said that churches that oppose gay marriage should lose their tax exemptions.

That was awful and even got pushback by some liberals.

Beta O'dork is damaged goods. He is authoritarian.

[BoiseBoy]

Beta o'dork once SHAMEFULLY said that churches that oppose gay marriage should lose their tax exemptions.

That was awful and even got pushback by some liberals.

Beta O'dork is damaged goods. He is authoritarian.

Well now that you cleverly replaced part of his last name with the word DORK I'm sure he'll lose by even more!

[Pollster]

Hopefully his 2022 campaign looks more like his 2018 campaign than his 2020 campaign.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Beta o'dork once SHAMEFULLY said that churches that oppose gay marriage should lose their tax exemptions.

That was awful and even got pushback by some liberals.

Beta O'dork is damaged goods. He is authoritarian.

Agreed.  O'Rourke needs to fully commit to this proposition and call for ALL churches to lose their tax exemptions. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto would make it closer than any other Democrat right now, but Abbott has a massive advantage and will easily win by 10 or more points, unless something changes drastically in the next year.

He is only up by 5 right now and DeSajtis is up 3

[Suburbia]

Likely R.....but the only way a Democrat wins is if Allen West is the nominee