Texas 2022 megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

I don't think he's extremely vulnerable, but he's a lot more polarizing now than he was in 2018 and 2014, which is why I think he wins by less than those two elections (despite it being a republican favorable year), especially if dems put up a much more energetic dem like Beto instead of a milquetoast dem like Valdez.

Beto will still be tainted by the comments that need no mention as they've been mentioned to death, but Texas dems love him, like a lot. The race won't be within 5 like Beto vs Cruz, but could be within 10 if dems play their cards right. I'd say Abbott's floor is R+7, ceiling may be 13-14.

Not only that, but there’ll also be a lot of new young voters, many of whom lean to the left and HATE Abbott. Remember Paxton Smith, the Dallas high school valedictorian who gave a pro-abortion speech? We may be seeing her on TV and on the campaign trail a lot helping the democrats beat Abbott, especially on the abortion issue.

[Drew]

A new poll finds Abbott’s approval rating at 41 approve/50 disapprove, with 52% of Texans saying the state is on the “wrong track”.  This was taken before the abortion law took effect.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/570953-abbott-approval-rating-wanes-as-most-texans-say-state-on-wrong-track?fbclid=IwAR2QhxRv7-xTjLCq5WdZPilEpsIhb_viAZaVdYdTnnkYs7cPAd7MZcWsI7I

[Real Texan Politics]

A new poll finds Abbott’s approval rating at 41 approve/50 disapprove, with 52% of Texans saying the state is on the “wrong track”.  This was taken before the abortion law took effect.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/570953-abbott-approval-rating-wanes-as-most-texans-say-state-on-wrong-track?fbclid=IwAR2QhxRv7-xTjLCq5WdZPilEpsIhb_viAZaVdYdTnnkYs7cPAd7MZcWsI7I

That poll may be more covid related, as the Texas covid numbers are very bad optics for Abbott, like with DeSantis (even though I think both are favored to win re-election anyways).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we so Concerned about TX and DeSantis is only up 41/38 and so is Rubio only up 2

This is the same TX that Reelected Rick Perry time and time again, H races are in play in TX, Abbott easily won in 2018 and we netted H seats

Some polls have D's up 7 forget Biden Approvals on Generic ballot, and Biden will be at 52/54 Approvals come Nov 2022

Cook needs to change MA and FL Gov and Sen to Tossup

Downing isn't /20 pts behind and this isn't 2018 in MA

Sabato he still in  the Ice ages has WI Lean R for Sen, that's why Rs keep saying WI Means R but Cook changed it, Sabato believe not a Neutral Environment but an R Wave but Cook is Pragmatic

[Adam Griffin]

We need the Texas McConaughey version from the movie "Bernie": slam dunk winner!

[wbrocks67]

See, someone needs to be in this race right now to be capitalizing on Abbott's terrible governing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto said no one is running since VR won't pass

As I said before D's need to spend their time defeating DeSantis not Abbott, as Fried is only 3 down

FL GOV AND SEN AND OH SEM even in this Environment with Josh Mandel or JD Vance can flip

TIM Ryan, Demings and Fried are all 2/3 pts behind

[Suburbia]

See, someone needs to be in this race right now to be capitalizing on Abbott's terrible governing.

Wendy Davis should run again, he proved her whole point of the GOP's anti-abortion position....she could get more support in 2022 than in 2014.....

Or let Davis be Lt. Governor...

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe R remains Safe R.

[S019]

This race strikes me as a bit of fools gold, and Democrats should focus on LG/AG instead.

[Suburbia]

Safe R remains Safe R.

Likely R

[Oppo]

McConaughey has the strengths of Silvio Berlusconi and Hugo Chavez with none of the baggage. He has the potential to become a truly transformative politician.

[Real Texan Politics]

Wikipedia now lists Steve Adler, the current mayor of Austin, as a potential canddiate.

The source they use, however, is an article from the Austin American-Statesman about whether his future political aspirations will be affected by his controversial trip to Mexico where he filmed a video (while in Mexico) discouraging Austin citizens from traveling.

So I'd take this with a grain of salt, probably isn't happening.

[CookieDamage]

Safe R remains Safe R.

Completely premature judgment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R remains Safe R.

Completely premature judgment.

It doesn't s Safe R, Beto said he's not running or McCounghey since Sinema voted to keep Filibustered and let Voter Suppression past, they won't come within 10 pts of Greg Abbott

Nate Silver have Rs winning this

We had a massive wave In TX in 2018, Abbott still won

[Real Texan Politics]

Safe R remains Safe R.

Completely premature judgment.

So is any blue Texas prediction, although if McConaughey runs as a dem then maybe I could understand.

Also I'm surprised no one including myself have mentioned this so far, but could Gene Wu be a potential dem candidate? He's probably the most popular of the "fugitives" who fled the state to filibuster the voting bill, which ended up getting passed and signed into law recently.

A Wu vs Beto primary would remind me a lot of Crist vs Fried, with Wu being like Fried having a base of mostly out-of-state twitter #resist libs, and Beto being like Crist where he's consistently up in the polls by a lot. Maybe I'm crazy, but it could be a possibility.

Or maybe Wendy Davis makes a comeback, we'll never know.

[MargieCat]

I heard from a source close to Beto that he is going to run against Abbott.

[Real Texan Politics]

I heard from a source close to Beto that he is going to run against Abbott.

It’s been rumored for a long time. What’s the source?

[wbrocks67]

I heard from a source close to Beto that he is going to run against Abbott.

When's he gonna launch though? now's a better time as any.

I'm not sure about his chances but I also think we're far enough removed from the Dem prez primary where most people have forgotten about that campaign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is loosing to Abbott by double digits

Beto isn't Nikki Fried whom is only 2 pts behind

[Real Texan Politics]

Sooooooo.........Gene Wu not running and endorsing Beto?
https://twitter.com/GeneforTexas/status/1435429414649663490?s=20

[Sir Mohamed]

Beto bungled anx chance to make this kind of competitive by running 4 prez as a very liberal candidate. Race is Likely R at best.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is losing by 10 pts to Abbott

[Cyrusman]

I don't think he's extremely vulnerable, but he's a lot more polarizing now than he was in 2018 and 2014, which is why I think he wins by less than those two elections (despite it being a republican favorable year), especially if dems put up a much more energetic dem like Beto instead of a milquetoast dem like Valdez.

Beto will still be tainted by the comments that need no mention as they've been mentioned to death, but Texas dems love him, like a lot. The race won't be within 5 like Beto vs Cruz, but could be within 10 if dems play their cards right. I'd say Abbott's floor is R+7, ceiling may be 13-14.

Not only that, but there’ll also be a lot of new young voters, many of whom lean to the left and HATE Abbott. Remember Paxton Smith, the Dallas high school valedictorian who gave a pro-abortion speech? We may be seeing her on TV and on the campaign trail a lot helping the democrats beat Abbott, especially on the abortion issue.

2014 I can easily understand but why is he more polarizing   than 2018 when 2018 was a very polarizing  time and a bad year for the GOP.

[wbrocks67]

Beto bungled anx chance to make this kind of competitive by running 4 prez as a very liberal candidate. Race is Likely R at best.

I don't think a lot of people remember that by now. Like they remember he did it, but not the substance. Plus, I can see him being a turnout machine again for liberals.

If he had gone away since then and done nothing, then he'd be remembered for that, but he's been very active in TX since early 2020 in voter registration efforts.