Texas 2022 megathread

[Utah Neolib]

McConaughey is the only dem who can win this

[Schiff for Senate]

Likely Republican, though the chances of it actually flipping blue are very, very unlikely. If I had to guess right now what an Abbott v. O'Rourke matchup would look like, I'd say Abbott wins by around 7-8% or so (but probably on the lower side of that).

[Real Texan Politics]

Allen West is officially in.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/04/allen-west-greg-abbott-texas-governor-election/

[Lambsbread]

Let the sh**tshow begin.

[Vespucci]

Let the sh**tshow begin.

It will certainly be a sh*tshow, although West has no chance; Trump endorsed Abbott and West is a blatant carpetbagger.

[Pink Panther]

Let the sh**tshow begin.

It will certainly be a sh*tshow, although West has no chance; Trump endorsed Abbott and West is a blatant carpetbagger.

Although Abbott should be heavily favored, West could potentially appeal to the base better, even without Trump's endorsement, similar to the GOP primary for CO-3 in 2020. However, the GOP base for Texas probably isn't as Trumpy as in CO-3, so Abbott should be fine, as stated before, though we should keep an eye on West for any possible hijinks.

[Calthrina950]

Let the sh**tshow begin.

It will certainly be a sh*tshow, although West has no chance; Trump endorsed Abbott and West is a blatant carpetbagger.

All of this, and Abbott has moved significantly to the right since being reelected. He's gone all in on the culture war issues that have been energizing the Republican base recently. I don't think he will have any problems winning either the primary or the general next year.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Allen West is officially in.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/04/allen-west-greg-abbott-texas-governor-election/

“Radical African-American Republican Carpetbagger Allen West announces run for Governor of Texas

[NewYorkExpress]

Allen West would be a disaster as the Republican nominee for Governor of Texas. I'd go as far as to say the race would be at least Tilt D with him as the Republican nominee.

[Nyvin]

Allen West is officially in.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/04/allen-west-greg-abbott-texas-governor-election/

If West wins the R primary, Texas Gov is officially tossup.

[MargieCat]

Allen West would be a disaster as the Republican nominee for Governor of Texas. I'd go as far as to say the race would be at least Tilt D with him as the Republican nominee.

My ultra-rightwing neighbor (who doesn't know I'm a democrat) was complaining that the democrats stole the election and spouting off conspiracy theories about dominion/smartmatic. She was calling Lina Hidalgo a communist witch that stole her election in 2018 and helped the democrats steal more races.

She had Abbott and Cruz signs in her yard back in 2018.

I told her that she needs to support Allen West in the primary because Abbott is insufficiently conservative

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is Safe R, McCounghey isn't even a candidate and if he is he is loosing by 1, lol Abbott is gonna win primary

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/McConaughey/status/1411792440411889664?s=20

It certainly sounds like he's planning on an announcement...

[Real Texan Politics]

TX is Safe R, McCounghey isn't even a candidate and if he is he is loosing by 1, lol Abbott is gonna win primary

That’s just one poll that says he’ll lose by one, and when a poll comes out showing McConaughey winning by double digits, I’ve got a feeling you’ll be basing your prediction based on that.

But yes, Abbott will win the primary. Could be slightly more competitive now with West in the race, but Abbott should still pull it off. West is probably the only challenger I see that may actually win a county or two or a few in the primary against Abbott.

[Terfnerf]

Safe R as long as Abbott survives the primary.

[Real Texan Politics]

I noticed Beto is trending on twitter, fueled by speculation (and wishful thinking) of him entering the gubernatorial race; possibly also fueled by this tweet from Beto:
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1413303263970185216?s=20

Also seeing a lot of anti-McConaughey sentiment among the Beto supporters, many of them praising his work for Texas, but don't want another entertainer as their leader. Some even suggested Matthew should support Beto, which I could see happening if Beto announces first.

[Orangeoutlaw]

Texas GOP Chairman Matt Rinaldi withdraws his support for Donald Huffines.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JasonWhitely/status/1419301913963737092

[Real Texan Politics]

If I had to guess, Huffines and West will likely split the MAGA vote and make Abbott the winner.

[Blair]

Strong 2006 vibes here.

[MargieCat]

If I had to guess, Huffines and West will likely split the MAGA vote and make Abbott the winner.

I don't think that Huffines and West's combined vote share even comes close to Abbott's.

I bet Abbott gets more than a majority with both establishment support plus the Trump endorsement.

[Real Texan Politics]

Strong 2006 vibes here.

More likely if Matthew runs.

[Real Texan Politics]

It's been a month, time for a bump.

So all those new laws in Texas have gone into effect today, including the controversial heartbeat bill and permitless carry bill.

How could these new laws shape the race in one year? I could see more energized anger turnout from dems, but Abbott is still the clear favorite for now (even if his polling numbers start dwindling like DeSantis).

[Non Swing Voter]

Can anyone vote in either primary in TX or is it restricted by party?  Like could Dems sabotage Abbott by voting for West?  In Virginia you can just take either primary ballot (when the GOP decides to actually have primaries that is).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are within 2 pts of Taking down Rubio and DeSantis they need to stock to FL and just keep par with our House candidates

If Castro  runs in 2024 fine but TX Gov and Sen are LOST

[MargieCat]

Can anyone vote in either primary in TX or is it restricted by party?  Like could Dems sabotage Abbott by voting for West?  In Virginia you can just take either primary ballot (when the GOP decides to actually have primaries that is).

Yes.

In Texas, we don't really have partisan registration.

Everyone is independent. But once you vote in a party's primary, you are with that party for the calendar year. You can't vote in the runoff for the other party.