TX-GOV: O'Rourke thinking about running

[Real Texan Politics]

We'll see how well he does with how much of left of his fanbase he has left.

[Real Texan Politics]

BOLD PREDICTION TIME

If Beto's the nominee, Harris County could possibly be a bit more competitive than usual. Beto still wins it though but it definitely swings to the right by a few points.

Also some of y'all may not know this, but Fort Bend County actually voted for Abbott in 2018. It's certainly possible it could stay red this time, or maybe it votes to the left of Harris County.

[Real Texan Politics]

BOLD PREDICTION TIME

If Beto's the nominee, Harris County could possibly be a bit more competitive than usual. Beto still wins it though but it definitely swings to the right by a few points.

Also some of y'all may not know this, but Fort Bend County actually voted for Abbott in 2018. It's certainly possible it could stay red this time, or maybe it votes to the left of Harris County.

For someone who frequents Fort Bend and Harris on a daily basis.

HELL NO.

Yea you're probably right.

Although how did Abbott win Fort Bend in 2018? Albeit it was a plurality and he didn't win Harris but was it his suburban appeal?

[Real Texan Politics]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=6xpj

My county map prediction, though it's likely I may be taking the south Texas trends for granted. Probably depends on the messages Beto campaigns on, because if he's gonna campaign the same way he did for president then it's possible he loses ground in some the more conservative hispanic counties.

Also I think Abbott keeps the suburbs and holds onto Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and Williamson, although loses Fort Bend. Hays is barely even winnable for republicans anymore though he can certainly make gains there. Remember this is based off the 2018 results which is why Tarrant, Williamson, and Fort Bend were red.

[Real Texan Politics]

I think he has the potential to lose by a closer margin than Valdez (though it would still be a firm Abbott win), and it's not like Texas Democrats really have anyone else to waste on what is obviously an unwinnable race.

I think Abbott only wins by single digits this time because of Beto's strong name recognition and potentially strong campaigning. Still likely R, but I'd say Abbott +8.