Florida 2022 Megathread

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Charlie's running

Nooo...

Everyone sees him as a snake oil salesman and political opportunist. No way he wins! Even with that "moderate" shtick he's got going on!

Borderline Lean/Likely R -> Strong Likely R

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Armchair Analysis:

Crist would likely lose in the general by 4 - 6% approximately (6 - 8% if Cubans keep swinging Republican). He's a swamp creature that the vast majority of Floridians don't like. May as well run DWS.

Fried needs to attempt to hold her place as Agriculture Commissioner. She'd likely lose by some 2 - 4% (4 - 6% if Cubans keep swinging Republican) if she tried running against DeSantis.


Only people who have a fighting chance are people on the outside like John Morgan who know how to run campaigns. Everyone knows who John Morgan is and he isn't hated, and also he was able to pass his amendment for Medical Marijuana with good politicking.


On a related note, though, here's my prediction:



Run from him, hide from him, Electoral Juggernaut Wayne Messam arrives all the same.

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CRIST is the only one that can win the Gov race, he can take Cubans away from DeSantis, Deming's can't

The only thing that can take away Cubans from DeSantis is a strong Democratic party organization, voter outreach in both Spanish and English, and disinformation combating campaigns built up and consistently done several years in advance of the election (not to mention the price of this, if money is spent efficiently, probably would cost less than the biennial three-week-long ad blitz Democrats do in the state). Crist would fail if he can't do all of those things and more very, very well.

Also, Crist would probably do worse than Fried or John Morgan but that's just IMO. Does he have some personal connections to the Cuban community?

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If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

"the 2022"? "Maimi dade"? Literacy? Very silly to assume that the last election is the only one that ever matters & trends will continue out into time forever.

sorry about the typos but its more silly to straight out ignore the massive shifts from 2016 to 2020.
Maimi-Dade's shifts were among the most extreme in the nation. you're telling people to ignore that??
futhermore, 2022 will be a GOP year and the Maimi dade will mostly shift more atlas blue from 2020.

We saw a 6-point shift toward the Democrats in Dade from 2012 to 2016. Anyone who assumed that trend would not only hold but intensify in 2020 ended up looking very stupid when it snapped back hard. I am looking out for you!

How dare you question the idea that 2020 trends are permanent. This is obviously what the map will look like:

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I will vote for Demings if she runs

I agree in that Demings is better candidate than Crist or Fried.

Crist is known as a flip-flopper with no conviction and will be incredibly easy for DeSantis to attack.

Fried's whole shtick is that she's not DeSantis, she doesn't bring up anything else and doesn't give voters anything to vote for other than not being the big scary Republican in the Governor's mansion. She's gonna choke hard come 2022.


Unfortunately, Demings also has a very high chance of losing against a popular incumbent like DeSantis, and this could tarnish her in the future. Maybe it's better for Democrats long-term if they run a sacrificial Crist in 2022. IMHO Democrats should focus on fixing their image among the Floridian people, and also should focus on down-ballot races and try to get more big names up through the ranks. Republicans absolutely dominate there right now and ending their juggernaut in the state house needs to be a priority for Democrats if they want to see success.

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Image Link

Fried can't win, she's gonna choke hard. She doesn't stand for anything except being opposed to DeSantis, she couldn't even stand for the $15 Minimum wage. If she's the best we got then the Florida Democrats should just hand this race to DeSantis and save their breath for 2024 and 2026. DeSantis will fry Fried.

The announcement was a teaser for an announcement:

https://twitter.com/nikkifried/status/1392476334690078720?s=20

This ad is cringeworthy and reeks of the #Resistance, reminds me of Biden's ads in September and October where I live. 0 substance. It keeps talking about her record but doesn't tell us anything about it. Does she even have a record?

Nothing but soulless platitudes and appeals to "electability" which were probably bogus in the first place.


IMHO Val Demings and John Morgan are the two best candidates to take on DeSantis.

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Fried looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Demings looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Crist looks into running: "He's ruining (Whatevers left of) his political career"

Let's just cut the middle-man and say no FL Dem will win next year and its a foolish exercise determining who stands a "better chance". As far as I'm concerned, the best that Dems can hope for here is 47% and/or a 3 point loss.

Yes

I mean looking at it from a purely political perspective I kinda hope Fried wins the nomination just so we can get that "lol weed" empty suit out of politics.

Crist is another good choice for running against DeSantis, because even though he has a political function in holding the Pinellas Congressional District, that's balanced because he will perform better than Fried (IMHO and also according to polling, which shows that Crist has much higher favorability ratings than Fried and that he performs better than Fried against DeSantis). This would probably mean that more downballot seats are held by Democrats. Also, no guarantee that the Pinellas District still exists after this redistricting round. Republicans could theoretically gerrymander it away.

Murphy already has lost against Rubio so we got that taken care of too, ideally nobody else will attempt to go for that race.

Democrats can now hopefully focus on down-ballot races now that the sacrifices are already selected:

DeSantis vs. Crist (R+2 to R+4 margin of victory) or DeSantis vs. Fried (R+4 to R+6 margin of victory)
Murphy vs. Rubio (R+2 to R+8 margin of victory depending on how good Murphy is)

Though I do think Morgan would be the 'best' candidate in that FL Dems have absolutely nothing to lose if he's nominated. 2018 was his best shot though and I'm really disappointed that he sat it out

Same  

But yes, I've never really understood the appeal of Nikki Fried. Her 2018 win was a bit of a fluke — she campaigned on marijuana, which was enough to get her the extra fraction of a percentage point over Nelson & Gillum, but I don't see how that translates to winning statewide office when she's at the top of the ticket. Think it's telling that her ad mentions that she won election but doesn't mention anything she did after that.

This exactly!

IMHO, If she wants to change minds about her and actually come off as a strong candidate then she needs to start pushing and passing popular and effective policies relating to agriculture (no, marijuana isn't enough) that has bipartisan support. And maybe if she gets really popular she could just fend for herself and hold her current position.

She can't expect to hold a seat for four years without doing any actual work in office then be a good challenger for Florida governor!

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To be fair, Morgan is even more of a "lol weed" empty suit than Fried. Bankrolling Amendment 2 doesn't change that (It might even bolster it).

I did not know that, and if he does turn out to be that way, I'd be against him as well. He comes off as far less of it, though. All I've seen is that he's promoting referendums on certain popular liberal positions, and have been seeing that he's a successful campaigner who's able to get these things passed.

Also, I'd argue that Morgan's less of a "lol weed" empty suit than Fried, who couldn't even bring herself to properly support the $15 minimum wage amendment.

But I get you have a vendetta against her and that's fine. Personally, I'd be fine with either as the nominee even though it literally doesn't matter and I'm not expecting support to change between candidates.

   

While it may come off that way, I don't have any vendetta against Fried (even if Caldwell was my favorite 2018 Republican). It's more of that I'm sorely disappointed at how little she's attempting to accomplish in her current position as Florida Agriculture Commissioner (and if she's actually attempting to accomplish things then I'd stand corrected, but in that case, she definitely needs to publicize her work). The only change I've seen whatsoever over the last two years that is because of her is that whenever I go to the gas station, I see a sticker with her face on it that says that the gas has been "Inspected and Approved for quality". That's it! All the while our orange production continues to drop. Sad!

As you said earlier, it's incredibly telling how her advertisements aren't about anything she's actually done, but just that she's been elected and is capable of saying a bunch of empty generic platitudes.

Instead of getting things done, she seems more interested in trying to take down DeSantis in 2022. 90% of the time I read about her doing anything, it's just about her criticizing DeSantis (which is unpopular in Florida anyway), nothing that she actually is working on or actually supports (other than cannabis cultivation, wow so important). This stuff is only appealing to the #Resistance Wine moms. It's really just like Hillary where she ran on an "I'm not Trump so vote for me" platform and she's going to choke hard come November 2022 unless she changes her tune and starts to use her position to work for Florida (I'm quite confident in this and would like to be quoted if I'm wrong).

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Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

Wouldn’t Broward County count or are they just more establishment dem?

Very much so, yes.

May also help that Fried is from the Miami area, so that could possibly help her win the big 3 Miami area counties?

Not necessarily.

In my opinion, it'll only help her maybe in Fort Lauderdale, Deerfield Beach, Parkland, places where it's popular to own the cons without pushing any actual policy. She has zero appeal to the Hispanics and Black people where I live (anecdotally), and it's doubtful that people even know she's from our county.

In fact, this is even backed up by the data, in Miramar, where I live (and this is a 45% Black, 35% Hispanic city), she underperformed Gillum in the 2018 election, despite being from our county.

Miramar Two-Party Results (Population 138,168)

Agriculture Commissioner

[R] Matt Caldwell: 8,987 votes (18.97%)
[D] Nikki Fried: 38,382 votes (81.03%)

D+62.06

Governor

[R] Ron DeSantis: 8,925 votes (18.56%)
[D] Andrew Gillum: 39,173 votes (81.44%)

D+62.88

And my city has lots of Cubans and Venezuelans, so this is a place where the socialism attack should've worked perfectly on Gillum (and it did on Biden, Miramar swung 10% or so to Republicans in 2020) and should theoretically have caused a DeSantis overperformance. But Gillum still performed better than Fried even after those attacks and his socialist image. Bernie also lost against Biden massively here.

Fried similarly underperformed in neighboring Pembroke Pines (Population 168,280) (45% Hispanic and 20% Black).


I wouldn't be surprised if the same held true in Miami-Dade's Black and Hispanic areas.

Crist, Demings, or Messam (who won over 86% of the vote in the Mayoral election) would do much better.

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Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

Wouldn’t Broward County count or are they just more establishment dem?

Very much so, yes.

May also help that Fried is from the Miami area, so that could possibly help her win the big 3 Miami area counties?

Not necessarily.

In my opinion, it'll only help her maybe in Fort Lauderdale, Deerfield Beach, Parkland, places where it's popular to own the cons without pushing any actual policy. She has zero appeal to the Hispanics and Black people where I live (anecdotally), and it's doubtful that people even know she's from our county.

In fact, this is even backed up by the data, in Miramar, where I live (and this is a 45% Black, 35% Hispanic city), she underperformed Gillum in the 2018 election, despite being from our county.

Miramar Two-Party Results (Population 138,168)

Agriculture Commissioner

[R] Matt Caldwell: 8,987 votes (18.97%)
[D] Nikki Fried: 38,382 votes (81.03%)

D+62.06

Governor

[R] Ron DeSantis: 8,925 votes (18.56%)
[D] Andrew Gillum: 39,173 votes (81.44%)

D+62.88

And my city has lots of Cubans and Venezuelans, so this is a place where the socialism attack should've worked perfectly on Gillum (and it did on Biden, Miramar swung 10% or so to Republicans in 2020) and should theoretically have caused a DeSantis overperformance. But Gillum still performed better than Fried even after those attacks and his socialist image. Bernie also lost against Biden massively here.

Fried similarly underperformed in neighboring Pembroke Pines (Population 168,280) (45% Hispanic and 20% Black).


I wouldn't be surprised if the same held true in Miami-Dade's Black and Hispanic areas.

Crist, Demings, or Messam (who won over 86% of the vote in the Mayoral election) would do much better.

Is Messam considering a run? I thought he was going to run in the special election for FL-20.

Realistically probably not. I don't even think he's registered to run for FL-20 special.

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I made a map:



Image Link


Comments?

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IMHO Nikki Fried vs. Charlie Crist is a dog-and-pony show for the elite donor class.

The two frontrunners are unlikeable and have no real convictions or ideas to help the Floridian people out, only standing for not being DeSantis. It's basically Young Hillary Clinton vs. Male Hillary Clinton.

If forced to choose between these two, I'll go with Nikki Fried, but it's all still very upsetting.

I support one of these guys who I haven't crossed out. I really hope one of them gains traction:




Any one of them will have plenty of material to use luckily      

"Charlie Crist is a flip-flopper" easy instakill

"How do you expect Nikki Fried to stand up to DeSantis, she couldn't even stand up for a $15 minimum wage" again easy

Also "Nikki Fried is a good-for-nothing career politician who's had her eyes on governor's mansion for far too long. Everything she does isn't to help the average Floridian, but is only to gain name recognition for her governor's run. Don't fall for her tricks."

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blablablabla

Fried - 36%
Crist - 33%

blablablabla

I must cope  

DeSantis+8% victory incoming

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https://mobile.twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1447991315468324872

Primary: Likely Crist -> Safe Crist
General: Likely Republican -> Safe Democratic

Seriously though, could Messam be chosen for lt. governor by Crist? He would balance the ticket by age and race.

The question isn't "could", it's "will", and the answer as we know is "yes"

2022 will be a blue wave just through the sheer intensity of Wayne Messam's mega-coattails across the whole nation! Crist's upballot windfall will skyrocket and possibly the mega-coattails may even extend to 2024, when Biden finally gets his 413 landslide map that he's dreamed of...

It's not even a question.

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Actually speaking, though

Charlie Crist will win Broward County and by considerably more than average
Nikki Fried will be fried in her own county

This isn't much of a question, she will underperform heavily in the West and South part because there are too many working class minority-rich areas for her to be popular. Remember she underperformed the "socialistic Afro American" Gillum in Pembroke Pines and Miramar.

She is the epitome of latte liberal...

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Whatever you think about DeSantis, you have to admit his opponents are cringe

It's clear that Fried's political skills are very questionable. How the hell did she even get elected in the first place?

Fluke, and not one that's going to be repeated

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https://twitter.com/BrianElections/status/1470086281975582721

Would it really matter if Crist and Fried got more money? They don't know how to use it

Bloomberg poured in $100 Million into cringey TV ads, that didn't help a thing... if they used it for voter registration drives instead, maybe, but thinking that is a few standard deviations of IQ too much for Florida Democrats to realistically do.

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https://twitter.com/NikkiFried/status/1472266564212871172

cringe cringe cringe cringe cringe

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-SNIP-

Jesus Christ. I think even I could run a better campaign than her, and that's saying a lot.

Most normal people could.
The thing is that these swamp creatures aren't normal people.
They have more in common with Twitter bots than actual humans.

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Fried is fried lol

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Why so much attention on this race for second place?

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Crist is risen

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Miami-Dade County has finished counting every ballot in the 2022 Primary, while Broward County has finished all except 161 Vote-by-mail ballots.

The unofficial results can be found here for Miami-Dade and here for Broward

287,926 ballots were cast in Dade with a voter turnout of 19.1%
260,419 ballots were cast in Broward with a voter turnout of 21.0%.


The one primary that occurred statewide on both the Democratic and Republican sides was the Agriculture Commissioner primary. However, due to its low profile, only 79.4% of voters in Broward and 76.8% of voters in Miami-Dade participated in the primary.

In Broward County, overall, these ballots broke 74.0% towards the Democratic party.
While in Miami-Dade County, they broke 55.1% towards the Democrats.

Election day ballots were more Republican than the total in both counties:
63.4% of election day ballots in Broward broke for Democrats.
50.6% of election day ballots in Miami-Dade broke for Democrats.


Florida is a closed primary state which greatly affects partisanship, so the above observations cannot be taken as indicative of very much heading into the general election.

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Palm Beach and Broward counties EV raw vote lead by DEMS is increasing slightly by day but it is way below the percentages than in 2018. Also in Osceola, which makes me doubt if DeSantis can also win Osceola but he has a lock probably now in Miami-Dade and well-positioned to win Hillsborough and Pinellas (a big blow to Crist!).

Is Palm Beach the least D County where Dems are still leading in the early vote? It seems like considering what's happenning statewide, Dems are holding up ok there so far, but obv doesn't really matter in the end.

Palm Beach has a large retiree population that's somewhat different than that found in Central Florida in that it is heavily descended from the New York metro area and has a large Jewish component, both of these skew the elderly more D in Palm Beach County than they otherwise may be. Especially given these groups are more likely to vote early, this isn't incredibly indicative of electoral prospects in Palm Beach.

Crist isn't going to win the county by D+15, and he definitely isn't going to win in by double the margin he does in Orange County.

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Will the voters not show up on Eday and would rather do some preparations instead?

No effect, this is only a Tropical Storm
TS Force Winds aren't really that bad (especially since this won't be coupled with extreme rain) and anyway they dissipate really quickly over land. The large size of the storm is somewhat concerning however still it needs to organize, this looks like it may be more subtropical than tropical by landfall (if it even landfalls, that's not a done deal!)

Only place where I think this could have problems is if it both intensifies far more than expected (which is unlikely according to CIMSS SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index) and only in the immediate vicinity of landfall.

Also, the farther north it tracks, the weaker and less tropical this system looks to be