Florida 2022 Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is far from done it's 47/46 DeSantis it's not DeSantis plus 8

[2016]

Charlie Crist is such an arse, asks Hurricane IAN Victims to donate to his Campaign because he has run out of $$$$
https://flvoicenews.com/charlie-crist-campaign-asks-hurricane-ian-victims-to-donate-to-his-campaign/

I will dump a whole lot Oppo Research to that childish Democrat called Crist. No, he is no CHRIST!

[Хahar 🤔]

Do you think that dumping opposition research on this forum is going to do anything but waste everyone's time? This is a forum for discussing election results, not electioneering.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis and Rubio are favored with Hurricanes IAN but it's all Lies when Mason DIXON has DeSantis up by 11 and Rubio is up 6
I Guatemala that DeSantis isn't winning by 11

[Calthrina950]

Do you think that dumping opposition research on this forum is going to do anything but waste everyone's time? This is a forum for discussing election results, not electioneering.

This is a forum for discussing election results, but this forum contains a great many threads where Democratic and Republican politicians alike have their records either attacked or defended, including in many of the races ongoing. If we can have a thread with pages of controversies surrounding Dr. Oz, or Herschel Walker, or any number of other Republican candidates, then there can be a thread with pages of controversies surrounding Charlie Crist.

[Calthrina950]

Do you think that dumping opposition research on this forum is going to do anything but waste everyone's time? This is a forum for discussing election results, not electioneering.

This is a forum for discussing election results, but this forum contains a great many threads where Democratic and Republican politicians alike have their records either attacked or defended, including in many of the races ongoing. If we can have a thread with pages of controversies surrounding Dr. Oz, or Herschel Walker, or any number of other Republican candidates, then there can be a thread with pages of controversies surrounding Charlie Crist.

You understand the difference between "discussing controversies surrounding a certain candidate" and pasting tweets from a candidate's press secretary, right?

There's hardly a difference. Both involve advocating for a particular candidate or supporting a particular candidates' claims. Both involve attacking one side and upholding the other. I doubt that this comment would have been made if 2016 had been promoting Charlie Crist instead, rather than attacking him.

[Senator Incitatus]

Do you think that dumping opposition research on this forum is going to do anything but waste everyone's time? This is a forum for discussing election results, not electioneering.

In this case, shut the forum down until November.

[2016]

Do you think that dumping opposition research on this forum is going to do anything but waste everyone's time? This is a forum for discussing election results, not electioneering.

This is a forum for discussing election results, but this forum contains a great many threads where Democratic and Republican politicians alike have their records either attacked or defended, including in many of the races ongoing. If we can have a thread with pages of controversies surrounding Dr. Oz, or Herschel Walker, or any number of other Republican candidates, then there can be a thread with pages of controversies surrounding Charlie Crist.

You understand the difference between "discussing controversies surrounding a certain candidate" and pasting tweets from a candidate's press secretary, right?

There's hardly a difference. Both involve advocating for a particular candidate or supporting a particular candidates' claims. Both involve attacking one side and upholding the other. I doubt that this comment would have been made if 2016 had been promoting Charlie Crist instead, rather than attacking him.

Thanks Calthrina950, I appreciate it

[2016]

Sorry to my Democratic Friends on the other side but I have to bring this up just to remind everyone how "Comical" CNN/SSRS Polls can be:


That was just atrocious to publish that Poll at all!!!

[Roll Roons]

Say what you want about DeSantis, but this is a fantastic ad:
https://twitter.com/RonDeSantisFL/status/1579502655726145538

[brucejoel99]

Say what you want about DeSantis, but this is a fantastic ad:
https://twitter.com/RonDeSantisFL/status/1579502655726145538

Fantastic top reply, too, not that they or any of the 415K Floridians in the same boat as them will get any press:

https://twitter.com/gayle9459/status/1579508099261792256

[UWS]

Sorry to my Democratic Friends on the other side but I have to bring this up just to remind everyone how "Comical" CNN/SSRS Polls can be:


That was just atrocious to publish that Poll at all!!!

And in addition back in 2004, the Dems had a 3.58 percentage points advantage in registration in Florida in October 2004, yet George W. Bush won Florida by 5 percentage points, the most comfortable margin victory for a Republican in Florida in presidential elections thus far in modern history.

https://p2004.org/states/fldet04.htm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida

[2016]

Say what you want about DeSantis, but this is a fantastic ad:
https://twitter.com/RonDeSantisFL/status/1579502655726145538

It is. I am admitting that I want DeSantis as our Nominee in 2024 and not Trump. Donald is too old for my liking.

[2016]

@RollRoons,
I cannot wait to see this flashing on my Screen on November 8th

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't need FL but if Gwen Graham runs against Scott in 2024 them he is much vulnerable than Rubio or DeSantis, I am anxiously awaiting for Gwen Graham to announce she is running in 24 she should be glad that she didn't take the LT Gov the October Surprise was Hurricane Ian

[TodayJunior]

@RollRoons,
I cannot wait to see this flashing on my Screen on November 8th

Chill the f out dude.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

@RollRoons,
I cannot wait to see this flashing on my Screen on November 8th

Chill the f out dude.

If you ignore 2016 posts this thread is six whole pages shorter.

[Real Texan Politics]

I don’t think anyone here aside from OC thinks DeSantis is gonna lose anyways.

[Calthrina950]

I don’t think anyone here aside from OC thinks DeSantis is gonna lose anyways.

I think it's pretty obvious at this point that Hurricane Ian is helping DeSantis politically. Even Biden praised him for how he responded to the hurricane. The only question now is whether or not DeSantis wins by double digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t think anyone here aside from OC thinks DeSantis is gonna lose anyways.

It's called wave insurance and you think GRISHAM is gonna lose she is up 16 the same amount as DeWine is on Whaley

No, I am not gonna change it when FL and NC are the first states up but he's not gonna win by 11 he is gonna win closer to Trump margin 3 pts that's why I still think we can win it where are the polls aside from Mason DIXON on this race they just polled OH why haven't they polled FL

Some users don't care if they get a race wrong I figured, that's why majority of map makers don't think wave insurance, if I can update my map and change my prediction when the candidates win I would make a 303 map which it will be but I can't do I make a nut map

[2016]

I don’t think anyone here aside from OC thinks DeSantis is gonna lose anyways.

The DeSantis vs Crist FL Governor Debate originally scheduled for Wednesday Oct. 12 has been pushed to Monday Oct. 24
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/10/politics/ron-desantis-charlie-crist-debate-florida

Democratic Strategists in FL basically have given up with one Strategist saying that Biden's glaring Comments how DeSantis managed the Hurricane last week may have sealed "Crists Fate"
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/08/politics/florida-democrats-hurricane-desantis-crist-demings/index.html

130K have already VBM in FL and Democrats lead by only 4,000 Votes. Even more concerning for them only 1000 Votes seperate them in Dade County
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Just like in Arizona today is the Final Day to register to vote in FL.

@Calthrina950,
DeSantis' Margin of Victory depends if he can win a Majority of Independents or No Party Affiliation Voters (FL has 3.9 Registered NPA Voters). If he does this will be big.

[2016]

Democratic Governor Nominee will run a Single Issue Campaign on Abortion in the Final 4 Weeks of this Campaign
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2022/10/11/abortion-rights-key-crist-campaign-ron-desantis-governor-midterm-election-florida/10466370002/

LOL if this is only Issue Florida Democrats have to run on they must truly being down double digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democratic Governor Nominee will run a Single Issue Campaign on Abortion in the Final 4 Weeks of this Campaign
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2022/10/11/abortion-rights-key-crist-campaign-ron-desantis-governor-midterm-election-florida/10466370002/

LOL if this is only Issue Florida Democrats have to run on they must truly being down double digits.

I know you like to talk about FL but your Adam LAXALT iss now losing didn't Trafalgar have Adam LAXALT winning yea so much for how accurate Trafalgar is

It's always been a 303 map and the Center Street Pac poll that showed Fetterman at 55 was accurate 55/35 Fetterman and Shapiro are gonna win by more than Biden won PA bye

I have a wave insurance map because there are always upsets the only year Ds didn't mount an upset was 2000/2004/2016 when Rs cracked the blue wall with Hillary , Gore and Kerry

2006 TN almost went Ford/Webb beat George Allen
2008 BEGICH beat Stevens, GA Chambliss went to a Runoff
2010 Reid beat Sharon Angle
2012 Rs won 241 H seats and Ds won OH, MO and FL SEN
2014 Bill Walker won AK Gov
2018 OH split vote between DeWine and Brown which can happen in 22 with DeWine and Ryan
2019 Beshear won
202o Ossoff beat Perdue
2022 AK went to Peltola, Ryan, Beasley, McMullin are trying to duplicate Peltola

[Hollywood]

Not sure it's going to make a difference but DeSantis and his administration are getting some heavy criticism over the delay in evacuating Lee County. A lot of death could have been avoided had they not waited the day before the landfall of Ian to evacuate.

Also not really anything but DeSantis has been wearing his campaign merch to tour destroyed areas and hand out food. Pretty distasteful in my opinion, not sure anybody cares though.

I disagree.  The media reports that DeSantis is receiving 'heavy criticism' is almost entirely a left-wing smear campaign by left-wing members and influencers within the national media as opposed to genuine public discourse in Florida.  The claim doesn't even hold up on a national level, because even an Economist National Poll of Adults indicates that a plurality of Democrats approve of DeSantis' Hurricane Ian response (43%) while 27% are not sure and 30% Disapprove.  It's ridiculous to even address the claims that 'no one cares' about DeSantis' bad response , because not even Democrats believe the presupposition that DeSantis has made a mistake. 
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/05/hurricane-ian-economist-yougov-poll-october-2022?utm_medium=organic_social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=SM-2022-10-US-B2C-Weather

I think most people are sickened by the claims by Democrats insinuating that DeSantis is responsible for more deaths cause he didn't act quickly to evacuate Fort Myers. The reality most people observed for themselves was DeSantis providing early warning to evacuate and quickly restoring services to communities despite the stronger than expected impacts.  The reality for most people like me who were awake for 36-48 hours straight during Ian's approach was that the NHC and National News Programs were completely wrong when they disregarded the atmospheric trends that could shift the track way further south into Monroe, and put both Dade and Broward into Major Hurricane conditions.  There was clearly some upper level dynamics depicting a shortwave trough slowly moving towards the Peninsula in concert with a Southeasternly displaced upper level ridge (200-300Mbs) shearing, shifting, shunting, speeding, and dislocating the Ian's vortex and its thunderstorms further east along two distinct transient frontal boundaries (tropical and sub-tropical) despite lower level 700-925Mb pushing the system further north.   

"While watching the Weather Channel discuss how Hurricane Ian would hit Tampa Bay, they switched the feed to an ongoing press conference with Gov. Ron DeSantis. During the press conference, DeSantis made a bold statement which caught the Weather Channel off guard. He said Hurricane Ian may turn and track farther south like Charlie did in 2004.

Even though the spaghetti models had Ian going farther north and south, DeSantis specifically said farther south.  He no doubt said this because he had access to the European weather model output — which all along had shown forecast tracks farther south — even down to Fort Myers. Up until this time, the official forecast was farther north — closer to the statistically less accurate GFS (American) model.

Then, once the TV feed returned back to the Weather Channel studio, you could see they initially didn’t quite know how to follow up on DeSantis’ comment. Of course they knew DeSantis was right, because they also had access to the Euro model output.  Weather Channel forecasters immediately acknowledged DeSantis’ comment and began discussing the Euro model output in earnest. Soon afterwards, the official Hurricane Ian forecast tracks steadily moved southward toward Fort Myers.

DeSantis helped save lives with his public forewarning of Ian’s more southerly track."
https://www.villages-news.com/2022/10/06/desantis-got-it-right-on-hurricane-ian/

So DeSantis was one of the earliest and most outspoken public officials that was warning people to evacuate Fort Myers, but many people didn't listen due to the NHC-Weather Channel graphics and messaging that focused on a Pensacola to Tampa Bay Landfall.   

Why did people die? . The affects of an extremely major hurricane (with extraordinary vertical shear thanks to undisturbed bath water in the W Caribbean and SE Gulf) entering a moderate horizontal shear environment accentuated the impacts on the east side of the storm, and served as a short-term mechanism that increased vorticity (circulation/spin) as well as the strength and expansiveness of the Eastern-displaced convection (Category 4-5) that hit SW Florida.  The impact of mid-upper-level troughs and shortwaves (kinks in jet stream ahead of main trough, or pseudo troughs)  on Major Hurricanes is a less researched phenomenon of Hurricanes that models and meteorologists cannot accurately forecast.  In Northern Hemisphere, these conditions normally shift tracks and impacts further East and NE, rapidly strengthen systems and/or expand wind fields while increasing tornadic activity on the dirty sides of the storms (Think Sandy pivoting West along Negatively tilted winter trough), and increase the timing of impacts and landfalls due to upper level jets before the storm rapidly weakens when the winds blow thunderstorms (vertical Shear) away from core (vertical shear needed to intensify storms).   This is impossible to forecast during October.

Check out this meteorological forum that includes meteorologists talking about the storm (and also has a very rowdy political thread that members must request moderators in order to gain access lol).  We discussed landfalls anywhere from the east coast for Florida to Mississippi, and maps of the upper level environment are depicted.  The warnings to evacuate were ordered, but people didn't follow them.  Emergency Management in those counties didn't know whether evacuation was necessary, because their was uncertainty in the forecast.  Even the Democrat politicians in some of these counties refused to organize a mandatory evacuation, but most of these politicians aren't throwing anyone under the bus like we see Democrats doing at the Federal Level.  DeSantis isn't blaming anyone cause these situations are tricky. https://southernwx.com/community/threads/2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-thread.1076/page-22

This was recently discussed by one of our leftist posters in this Hurricane Ian Thread as follows:

The problem is officials are afraid to pull the trigger on warnings "to" early.....hell I remember when Hurricane Floyd was coming and they evacuated the entire SE coast from Miami to Hatteras several days before it hit.....then took a lot of heat when it missed Florida...

With Ian they did not issue mandatory evacuation orders in Lee County until Ian was less than 24 hrs out for the Ft Myers area. The NHC had issued a surge warning for Lee County days before they took a hit....there is some indication that Lee County did not follow their own comprehensive emergency management plan.

This will of course lead the the inevitable fight about how crying wolf leads to complacency and people not heeding the warning etc....but at least they had a warning to not heed, and those that wanted to had time to leave....in the end though

The NHC and NWS need to look at finding better ways to convey the danger of these storms better.  https://southernwx.com/community/threads/hurricane-ian.1126/page-105

Ya'll need to stop playing politics with Hurriance Ian cause you're afraid DeSantis will gain popularity.  Honestly, it disgusts all the lefties on weather forums, and it's a bad look when every meteorologist from both sides of the aisle start backing Republican talking points.  The discussion that are being had among the educated circles of Florida on Ian are more substantive than the BS stories from so-called journalists attempting to create controversy in the National News. 

From a non-political member of the meteorology forum: "I'm wondering how high the death toll is really gonna go... I've heard some bad rumors the last couple days that I'm hoping are just the usual false exaggerations but who knows. It sounds like some people who evacuated from Tampa went to Fort Myers though(and most of those hotels were absolutely gutted).... There was a lot of bad decisions all around with this storm."

[Dereich]

I don’t think anyone here aside from OC thinks DeSantis is gonna lose anyways.

I think it's pretty obvious at this point that Hurricane Ian is helping DeSantis politically. Even Biden praised him for how he responded to the hurricane. The only question now is whether or not DeSantis wins by double digits.

I'm confident that in pure number terms Ian is going to be a net negative for DeSantis. There's zero chance Lee and Collier Counties are back to fully normal turnout by next month and both previously provided fairly hefty vote margins to DeSantis. His handling of the hurricane, at least from what I've seen and heard, hasn't been particularly noteworthy one way or another. I doubt it wins over many people.