Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

Ahh Kentucky, a ruby red state home of baseball, bourbon, KFC, the Kentucky Derby, and a young(ish) incumbent democrat governor who's eligible for re-election in 2023. Who would've guessed?

So with Andy Beshear up for re-election, there really is no need to talk about other potential democrat primary challengers are there currently aren't any listed on wikipedia, so I'll just mention some republicans. And no, Rand Paul isn't one of them, but Matt Bevin is. Other republican primary challengers include Daniel Cameron (current attorney general of Kentucky), Allison Ball (current Kentucky state treasurer), James Comer (current congressman from KY-01), Savannah Maddox (member of the Kentucky house from the 61st district), and Ryan Quarles (the current Kentucky agriculture commissioner).

And while not listed on wikipedia as a potential candidate, let me be the first to say this: be on the lookout for Papa John himself, John Schnatter, potentially running for governor, who would more than likely run as a republican due to his support of Donald Trump. Though after his downfall due to a slur-filled conference call, this may end up being Beshear's best candidate to beat.

Kentucky, like Louisiana, is a ruby red state on the federal level which just so happens to be kind of a blue state on the state level, with a few republicans elected here and there (but the ones elected typically serve one term before losing re-election). Based on this, it's probably safe to rate Kentucky as D for now, though the margin of victory could definitely be in question, especially if the republicans run a decent candidate. Speaking of that, Daniel Cameron is probably out of the question in terms of winning the election due to his reponse to the death of Breonna Taylor, and Papa John Schnatter for previously mentioned reasons. Plus Matt Bevin lost in 2019 due to his massive unpopularity, so republicans have some searching to do.

My current rating prediction: Lean D

[Real Texan Politics]

I read in a article post-November 2020 that one of the prominent Democrats in the KY state legislature lost his re-election, maybe it was the Boyle county area? Can’t remember for sure, but his constituent came up to him and said “it’s not that we don’t like you or we don’t like the work you’re doing, it’s just that you’re a Democrat” I wish I could find that article but I was shocked when I saw it, I had to to dig for it though.  
Ky voter registration has gone from nearly 50-40, Democratic advantage(2017) to 44.14-46.65 Democratic advantage (December  2020).
Let’s also note that Bevin almost become the first Republican in Kentucky history to win a Republican governorship for the second time, and he was insanely unpopular. Also, David Cameron is pretty popular too, but you don’t necessarily see that same sentiment in person do you? and friends I can definitely tell you, there’s something wrong with that Beshear approval rating, it’s decent but not high enough where he should sleep comfortable with the idea of winning a clear re-election. I would describe his approval rating as “apathetically high” meaning I doubt it’ll translate into votes, as time goes on, Democrats are going to have to have more than just a good approval rating too; the numbers are just getting too challenging for them to overcome.

About David Cameron, despite having approval ratings above 50%, there are two words that will be detrimental to his campaign, and those two words are...

Breonna Taylor

As I've mentioned before, Cameron was the attorney general at the time of Taylor's death, and that's a position he still has today. However, I also found out he is currently facing impeachment due to his response to Taylor's death, which may or may not hurt his chances with independents. It probably hurts him a lot more if the cops that killed Taylor are still free by the 2023 election, but the damage may have already been done to his campaign. Not to mention the heavy amount of attack ads towards him that would probably be paid for by activist groups like BLM. Those could end up being brutal to him and his campaign.

So yea, if it weren't for Breonna Taylor's death, he would probably have a decent chance at being elected governor. But unfortunately due to those events and his highly controversial response, he's DOA in my opinion, and would probably be an almost guaranteed victory for Beshear if Cameron's the republican nominee. Or maybe Cameron wins and the polls will show it to be much closer than it actually is.

I wonder if Elliott county will stay Democratic.

Elliott surprisingly stays democratic at the state level, and I think it voted for Beshear as well. I'd say Elliott votes for Beshear again unless republicans nominate a populist candidate.

[Real Texan Politics]

What about Bevin former lt governor?

Jenean Hampton? Not sure. Republicans would probably attack her for voting for the libertarian candidate in 2019 instead of Bevin.

[Real Texan Politics]

Checked back on the wikipedia article for the election, and one notable name has been removed from the potential republican candidates list: Matt Bevin.

But we do have a new potential GOP candidate: Kelly Craft (former UN Ambassador under Donald Trump (2019-2021) and former US Ambassador to Canada (2017-2019)).

For those who don't know, Kelly Craft is from Lexington, KY, and got her BA from the University of Kentucky. Her husband is Joe Craft, who is a billionaire and CEO of Alliance Resource Partners, the third largest coal producer in the eastern United States.

As for where wikipedia got the information from, here is the source: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/28/trump-donor-campaigns-463363

Does she have a chance if she runs?

[Real Texan Politics]

Update: James Comer is out according to the AP. (source: https://apnews.com/article/kentucky-matt-bevin-james-comer-jack-conway-51ea3474091c45a06dcb5b88d610a144

Another update: Mike Harmon, the Kentucky state auditor, has declared his candidacy. (source: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2021/07/12/state-auditor-mike-harmon-running-for-kentucky-governor/7935502002/)

[Real Texan Politics]

Time for an update bump!

We've got another republican challenger, this one being Eric Deters, a retired personal injury attorney without a wikipedia page. Not sure if he entered before or after Harmon.

Should also mention there is a new "publicly expressed interest" republican that is listed, that being Max Wise, a Kentucky state senator from the 16th district. Could he be one to watch?

[Real Texan Politics]

Definitely good news for Beshear, but he’s not entirely safe even with decent approvals just based on the environment as well as partisan politics. As of now I still expect Beshear to go down, but it could also depend on the GOP candidate choice.

[Real Texan Politics]

Hot take: He's running for Kentucky governor

Maybe that's his "day of reckoning"?
https://twitter.com/mschlapp/status/1494350695784407046?s=20&t=hD8IBKIZBo5Em...