Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Frodo]

Kentucky, like Louisiana, is a ruby red state on the federal level which just so happens to be kind of a blue state on the state level, with a few republicans elected here and there (but the ones elected typically serve one term before losing re-election). Based on this, it's probably safe to rate Kentucky as D for now, though the margin of victory could definitely be in question, especially if the republicans run a decent candidate.

Republicans are near parity in voter registration, and have an overwhelming supermajority in both houses of the legislature that will be entrenched and consolidated, especially after redistricting and gerrymandering Democrats to near-oblivion.

I would say rather that Kentucky at the state and local levels is almost as Republican as it is at the federal level. 

[Frodo]

Except for case, where Republicans nominate their own "Roy Moore", i am reasonably sure in their victory. Not overwhelming, but - solid... Beshear and JBE are "the last of mohicans" for Democrats, just as Hogan, Baker, and Scott - for Republicans. Soon - 95+% of partisan elections in US will be, essentially, useless - utterly predictable from very beginning.. May be - even 98+....

There’s not a single statewide elected Democrat or Democrat in Congress right now who’s genuinely moderate or who will ever actually stand up to their own party. Maybe that has something to do with this so-called 'polarization' that people somehow can’t seem to grasp.

What reason is there for a Republican-leaning voter to even support a Democrat nowadays? Even the ones who brand themselves as 'conservatives' are clearly always reliable votes for their party in the end &, in the case of the governors, prioritize Democratic legislation being implemented or veto power being exercised more than anything else. Elections might become more predictable (not that optimistic, but hope you’re right) because the politicians have become very predictable.

Mostly agree, but, except for people i mentioned - the same is basically true for Republicans. And in state legislatures - probably to even greater degree, then for Democrats. And that's (sorry for repeat) is exactly the reason why it became so uninterestig to observe US elections from abroad - "the game" became too predictable, and thus - very boring... Personally i was very intersted in observing and analyzing them in 1970th-1990th, mostly interested until 2014, but - not now...

If our politics has become so 'boring' and 'predictable' to you, why do you still follow it?  You clearly have some lingering interest.  If you didn't, you wouldn't still be here on Atlas telling us this.    

[Frodo]

At the rate Kentucky is turning more heavily Republican, at some point whoever wins the GOP primary will win the election:

Trump endorses Cameron's bid for governor in Kentucky

[Frodo]

At the rate Kentucky is turning more heavily Republican, at some point whoever wins the GOP primary will win the election:

Trump endorses Cameron's bid for governor in Kentucky

It's not like the state was any less Republican in 2019. Beshear could well lose, but it would probably be the national environment that does him in rather than the trend of the state.

There are more people who are registering (or re-registering) as Republicans than Democrats (they are roughly at parity now), and we are about to see an even bigger Republican supermajority in the legislature by this time next year as a result of redistricting and generational turnover.  I don't have the partisan numbers on local elected officials in the state, but I can't imagine it being much better for Democrats.  I am not saying Kentucky is like Tennessee now, but it will be as this decade progresses.    

[Frodo]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

To be fair, Gov. Andrew Beshear could be the last Democrat who can win statewide, not unlike his Louisiana counterpart John Bel Edwards.  Once he is term-limited out of office (assuming he wins re-election, which seems likely by this point) in 2027, Republicans will finally take the Governor's mansion, and this time keep it for the foreseeable future.