Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

I think that the takeaway is that popular governors tend to win re-election, and while you can point to some (dated) examples of them losing, that’s pretty clearly the exception to the rule.

Also, kind of wild that Beshear won Fayette by more than Jefferson, margin-wise. How Democratic is Lexington going to get?

Yup, there have been remarkably few govs losing reelection in the last 10 years: Sean Parnell (R-AK), Tom Corbett (R-PA), Pat Quinn (D-IL), Pat McCrory (R-NC), Bruce Rauner (R-IL), Scott Walker (R-WI), Bill Walker (I-AK, withdrew shortly before the election), Matt Bevin (R-KY) and Steve Sisolak (D-NV).

Jeff Colyer (R-KS) and Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) lost renomination.

[oldkyhome]

Beshear +4

Prediction remains Beshear +4.

I will now accept my accolades.

KY: Beshear +5
MS: Reeves +4

Likewise

[libertpaulian]

What's the one way a Dem can succeed Beshear? Run monster margins in Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin Counties, improve in the Louisville and Cincinnati suburbs, perform respectably in the "small city" counties (such as Warren and Rowan Counties), and try not to get too demolished in the rest?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

All of this assumes we'll even still have the same party system next time.

Since the major parties are intent on nominating stale old Trump and Biden again, I'm not so sure. Or even worse, they could nominate Nikki Haley and Gavin Newsom.

[ReallySuper]

I think that the takeaway is that popular governors tend to win re-election, and while you can point to some (dated) examples of them losing, that’s pretty clearly the exception to the rule.

Also, kind of wild that Beshear won Fayette by more than Jefferson, margin-wise. How Democratic is Lexington going to get?

it makes sense given fayette voted left of jefferson in 2020 for president and senate and in 2022 for senate (as well as more pro-choice on amendment 2). i dont think it can really get all that much more dem atp but it will probably stay slightly more dem than jefferson for a while

also still funny that 100% of republican governors in kentucky have not won reelection while 100% of democratic governors that sought reelection have won it

[wbrocks67]

Emerson keeping the whole "we're about 5-6% to the right of a ton of these races" that happened in 2022.

[jamestroll]

I think Andy's win proves that partisanship still truly isn't the end-all be-all when it comes to elections, and there is something very nice about knowing that.

Glenn Hill pretty much won re-election to Prince William County Sheriff for that reason.

Though it is MUCH harder than before to ignore presidential numbers of course.

[emailking]

Daniel Cameron lost because he couldn’t alleviate the stench of Mitch McConnell. I told him early that’s a big burden to overcome. McConnell and Romney are Kryptonite for Republican Candidates. I moved him up 25 Points, but the McConnell relationship was “too much to bear.” Tate Reeves, on the other hand, surged to a win for Governor in Mississippi after my involvement. Congratulations to Tate!

^ Trump

[President Johnson]

Turnout slightly dropped from 2019 though? Beshear got a few thousand raw votes less than last time, although his vote share increased from 49.2% to 52.5%.

Also, my 52-46% prediction was relatively accurate.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Turnout slightly dropped from 2019 though?

From what I've seen on the ground, that's entirely believable.

[E-Dawg]

Daniel Cameron lost because he couldn’t alleviate the stench of Mitch McConnell. I told him early that’s a big burden to overcome. McConnell and Romney are Kryptonite for Republican Candidates. I moved him up 25 Points, but the McConnell relationship was “too much to bear.” Tate Reeves, on the other hand, surged to a win for Governor in Mississippi after my involvement. Congratulations to Tate!

^ Trump

Absolutely COPE from Trump here. This doesn't even make any sense, as Mitch McConnell himself easily wins Kentucky every time he's up for re-election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Daniel Cameron lost because he couldn’t alleviate the stench of Mitch McConnell. I told him early that’s a big burden to overcome. McConnell and Romney are Kryptonite for Republican Candidates. I moved him up 25 Points, but the McConnell relationship was “too much to bear.” Tate Reeves, on the other hand, surged to a win for Governor in Mississippi after my involvement. Congratulations to Tate!

^ Trump

Absolutely COPE from Trump here. This doesn't even make any sense, as Mitch McConnell himself easily wins Kentucky every time he's up for re-election.

Eh, that's just because he's a Republican running for Senate in Kentucky, which guarantees victory based on partisanship alone. Also traditionally it hasn't been "easily". He won by only about 6 points in 2008 despite McCain winning the state by 16.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

With that being said LOL@Trump trying to spin a Republican winning by less than 5 points in Mississippi as some sort of big victory.

[emailking]

Also he seems to be saying Cameron would have lost by 30 without his endorsement lol.

[Tekken_Guy]

Beshear should be the front runner for the Democratic nomination in 2028. He is young, good looking, nice family and comes from a red state. Plus he is a governor. Americans tend to trust governors more than congressmen.

Harris and Newsom are jokes. Too easy to paint as California latte liberals.

I also like Whitmer and Warnock. But the senate's majority is too slim for Warnock to leave.

If Ossoff wins in 2026 then I don’t think Democrats should be too worried about Warnock’s seat flipping back in 2028. If he loses, however, then I agree it’s too risky for him to leave.

[Pres Mike]

Beshear should be the front runner for the Democratic nomination in 2028. He is young, good looking, nice family and comes from a red state. Plus he is a governor. Americans tend to trust governors more than congressmen.

Harris and Newsom are jokes. Too easy to paint as California latte liberals.

I also like Whitmer and Warnock. But the senate's majority is too slim for Warnock to leave.

If Ossoff wins in 2026 then I don’t think Democrats should be too worried about Warnock’s seat flipping back in 2028. If he loses, however, then I agree it’s too risky for him to leave.

Even if Ossoff wins in 2026, Georgia is going to be a swing state for the forseeable future. Not wise for a popular and talented senator to abandone it

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Beshear is to become the nominee in 2028, he needs to have credibility with black voters. That goes dor anyone who wants to be nominated. They're the bellwether in national Democratic primaries.

I'mnot saying he can't, just that it's something to seriously consider if last night does inspire him to become a national candidate down the line.

[Hope For A New Era]

If Beshear is to become the nominee in 2028, he needs to have credibility with black voters. That goes dor anyone who wants to be nominated. They're the bellwether in national Democratic primaries.

I'mnot saying he can't, just that it's something to seriously consider if last night does inspire him to become a national candidate down the line.

I don't want Kamala to run in 2024 or 2028, but if she does, I don't think anyone can doubt that he's the ideal running mate for her.

[henster]

Beshear will take Roy Coopers spot as the perfect VP for any would be female nominee. I don't really think he'd stand out too much as a Presidential candidate in 2028 because he can't really deliver big progressive wins to sell to primary voters.

[Blair]

I never understood why Cameron ran, rather than just waiting for the senate seat he had marked out for him.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/TessaDuvall/status/1722622005235904638

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1723490329641250943

[Alben Barkley]

If Beshear is to become the nominee in 2028, he needs to have credibility with black voters. That goes dor anyone who wants to be nominated. They're the bellwether in national Democratic primaries.

I'mnot saying he can't, just that it's something to seriously consider if last night does inspire him to become a national candidate down the line.

Beshear DOES have credibility with black voters. There's a reason he got Kim Jong-un numbers in Louisville and Lexington, despite Republicans nominating a black candidate themselves. (Which makes my racist grandfather's prediction that the "N-words" in those two cities would cause Cameron to win all the more laughable.)

Beshear, like Bill Clinton who governed a state with similar demographics to Kentucky, absolutely has a path to win over black voters nationally.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Beshear is to become the nominee in 2028, he needs to have credibility with black voters. That goes dor anyone who wants to be nominated. They're the bellwether in national Democratic primaries.

I'mnot saying he can't, just that it's something to seriously consider if last night does inspire him to become a national candidate down the line.

Beshear DOES have credibility with black voters. There's a reason he got Kim Jong-un numbers in Louisville and Lexington, despite Republicans nominating a black candidate themselves. (Which makes my racist grandfather's prediction that the "N-words" in those two cities would cause Cameron to win all the more laughable.)

Beshear, like Bill Clinton who governed a state with similar demographics to Kentucky, absolutely has a path to win over black voters nationally.

I'll take your word for it. 2028 will be interesting no matter what. It's insane how good the Democratic bench has become.

[wbrocks67]

Final turnout (makeup) for the election was only R+0.4:

Republicans 40%
Democrats 39.6%
Independents 22.8%

https://twitter.com/MichaelPruser/status/1732798985272725903