Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I've noticed the sign wars are kind of a reverse of what they used to be. It used to be you'd see Republican signs in rich areas and Democratic signs in working-class areas. Now it's the opposite.

[wbrocks67]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

I don't want to sound delusional because this is Kentucky after all, but a mid-sized Beshear win doesn't sound as unthinkable anymore as it once was. Like 10% may be too much, but like Beshear 5-10% seems more likely now than it did before.

[DaleCooper]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

I'm actually valuing anecdotes like this way more than polls at this point, assuming they're coming from reliable people. Back in 2020 it was little things like this that were hints that Trump was still in the race in spite of what the polls were saying.

[Alben Barkley]

I've noticed the sign wars are kind of a reverse of what they used to be. It used to be you'd see Republican signs in rich areas and Democratic signs in working-class areas. Now it's the opposite.

All I can say is that even taking backwoods rural roads in counties like Jessamine, Garrard, Boyle, Lincoln, Pulaski, I have seen Beshear signs and no Cameron signs. Again, sometimes even next to Trump signs. They're even more prominent in small towns like Danville. (Boyle I think is a guaranteed flip; it BARELY voted Bevin last time, but went on to vote left of the state in 2020 and against the abortion ban in 2022.)

I don't want to sound delusional because this is Kentucky after all, but a mid-sized Beshear win doesn't sound as unthinkable anymore as it once was. Like 10% may be too much, but like Beshear 5-10% seems more likely now than it did before.

It's not really unthinkable. His dad managed to win by over 20 points at the peak of the Tea Party movement and a year before Obama was destroyed in the state, after all. You might say, oh well that was a different time when races for state office were treated very differently, but honestly? This race isn't as nationalized as you might expect. Most of the ads are culture wars over whether Beshear supports sex changes for children or not, and who the cops like more. That kind of strategy didn't work as well for the GOP as some, even myself, expected in 2022 in most states. And Cameron seems to have no answer for Beshear's excellent economic record, no real argument he can articulate as to why Kentucky should change horses in midstream or why he's even running. And again, the guy is absolutely devoid of charisma. He has no answer to the polls showing Beshear destroying him in likability either.

Put it all together and you might have a perfect storm where Beshear at the least pulls off a JBE 2019 sized victory. Which doesn't seem that impressive, to win by 3 points, but as you said, it IS Kentucky, and it IS the Trump era.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cameron is so obviously the most exciting gubernatorial candidate in the entire nation this year. As exciting as Jeb! was in 2015.

[Roll Roons]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

I'm actually valuing anecdotes like this way more than polls at this point, assuming they're coming from reliable people. Back in 2020 it was little things like this that were hints that Trump was still in the race in spite of what the polls were saying.

What kind of specific things are you referring to?

[DaleCooper]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

I'm actually valuing anecdotes like this way more than polls at this point, assuming they're coming from reliable people. Back in 2020 it was little things like this that were hints that Trump was still in the race in spite of what the polls were saying.

What kind of specific things are you referring to?

Little things like yard signs, the fact that the entire country seemed to expect it to be close in 2020, reports from people who actually live in a certain area about what the average person there believes. I remember there was a Maine avatar that said back in the summer of 2020 that he didn't know who these polls were reaching because it seemed to him like Sarah Gideon was running a terrible campaign for the state. If it's coming from someone who seems reasonable, that stuff means way more to me than whatever the media says.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

I'm actually valuing anecdotes like this way more than polls at this point, assuming they're coming from reliable people. Back in 2020 it was little things like this that were hints that Trump was still in the race in spite of what the polls were saying.

What kind of specific things are you referring to?

Little things like yard signs, the fact that the entire country seemed to expect it to be close in 2020, reports from people who actually live in a certain area about what the average person there believes. I remember there was a Maine avatar that said back in the summer of 2020 that he didn't know who these polls were reaching because it seemed to him like Sarah Gideon was running a terrible campaign for the state. If it's coming from someone who seems reasonable, that stuff means way more to me than whatever the media says.

Wbrocks ended up massively vindicated when he was insisting on what he was seeing on the ground versus the media narratives and polling. So I'm with you on this now after 2022.

[Senator Incitatus]

In Virginia 2021, it took just about a perfect storm for Youngkin to come back in the final two weeks. I just don't see any momentum building toward that for Cameron.

[Roll Roons]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

I'm actually valuing anecdotes like this way more than polls at this point, assuming they're coming from reliable people. Back in 2020 it was little things like this that were hints that Trump was still in the race in spite of what the polls were saying.

What kind of specific things are you referring to?

Little things like yard signs, the fact that the entire country seemed to expect it to be close in 2020, reports from people who actually live in a certain area about what the average person there believes. I remember there was a Maine avatar that said back in the summer of 2020 that he didn't know who these polls were reaching because it seemed to him like Sarah Gideon was running a terrible campaign for the state. If it's coming from someone who seems reasonable, that stuff means way more to me than whatever the media says.

Wbrocks ended up massively vindicated when he was insisting on what he was seeing on the ground versus the media narratives and polling. So I'm with you on this now after 2022.

It depends. In 2021, he also claimed multiple times that Ciattarelli's campaign was somehow totally invisible despite that not being the case at all.

[Roll Roons]

In Virginia 2021, it took just about a perfect storm for Youngkin to come back in the final two weeks. I just don't see any momentum building toward that for Cameron.

Youngkin ran a pretty flawless campaign, but he also benefited from McAuliffe's mistakes like the comment about parents in education or repeatedly lying about the risk that kids faced from COVID.

It's possible that Beshear could make an unforced error like that, though he doesn't strike me as the type who would.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

I'm actually valuing anecdotes like this way more than polls at this point, assuming they're coming from reliable people. Back in 2020 it was little things like this that were hints that Trump was still in the race in spite of what the polls were saying.

What kind of specific things are you referring to?

Little things like yard signs, the fact that the entire country seemed to expect it to be close in 2020, reports from people who actually live in a certain area about what the average person there believes. I remember there was a Maine avatar that said back in the summer of 2020 that he didn't know who these polls were reaching because it seemed to him like Sarah Gideon was running a terrible campaign for the state. If it's coming from someone who seems reasonable, that stuff means way more to me than whatever the media says.

Wbrocks ended up massively vindicated when he was insisting on what he was seeing on the ground versus the media narratives and polling. So I'm with you on this now after 2022.

It depends. In 2021, he also claimed multiple times that Ciattarelli's campaign was somehow totally invisible despite that not being the case at all.

Well, he isn't from New Jersey. I'm not saying that wbrocks is infallible, just that his insight into his own state might have its merits.

[EastwoodS]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

[Duke of York]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

Is there a chance Democrats could win any other statewide offices?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

Is there a chance Democrats could win any other statewide offices?

I don't even know who's running for any of the other offices.

[ReallySuper]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

Is there a chance Democrats could win any other statewide offices?

I don't even know who's running for any of the other offices.

yeah, this tells you basically all you need to know. the governor's race is the only one on people's minds (and on tv). even in a hypothetical "andy wave" i don't think it would be enough to lift up the other dems, despite col. pam stevenson for instance being based as hell and way better than her opponent (whose only qualification, like most of the gop ticket, is being mitch mcconnell's right-hand-man). i've been textbanking some for col. pam's campaign and even though our list is composed entirely of self-declared beshear supporters (either in 2019 or 2023) we've been getting a lot of "i will never vote for a democrat" responses lol

[EastwoodS]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

Is there a chance Democrats could win any other statewide offices?

I don't even know who's running for any of the other offices.

yeah, this tells you basically all you need to know. the governor's race is the only one on people's minds (and on tv). even in a hypothetical "andy wave" i don't think it would be enough to lift up the other dems, despite col. pam stevenson for instance being based as hell and way better than her opponent (whose only qualification, like most of the gop ticket, is being mitch mcconnell's right-hand-man). i've been textbanking some for col. pam's campaign and even though our list is composed entirely of self-declared beshear supporters (either in 2019 or 2023) we've been getting a lot of "i will never vote for a democrat" responses lol

This lol. Down ballot, KY definitely reverts back to the mean.
I think a lot of KY voters who tend to be very conservative don't feel threatened by Andy Beshear,  even though he is a very mainstream Dem, possibly bc of the GOP super majorities in both chambers and on the KY supreme court. I personally think Andy has been doing a great job fixing our states infrastructure, I definitely see a huge difference all over the state as I commute to college from Louisville and use 64 and 75 multiple times a week, and I have never seen such a massive rebuild of our roads in such a short time.

[Alben Barkley]

The Republicans are getting desperate: I just saw an absolute blitzkrieg of an ad which attempted to tie Beshear to Biden and the "border crisis" and Cameron to Trump and cops all at the same time. It all happened so fast it probably just confused voters even more.

You can actually smell the desperation. It's not going to work...

[wbrocks67]

The spending disparity is still pretty wild

$24M for Ds to $16M for Rs... in Kentucky of all places. Also, the campaigns spending is even more wild. Beshear's campaign has spent nearly $10M. Cameron barely $1.5M.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1711160994662080559

[Frodo]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

To be fair, Gov. Andrew Beshear could be the last Democrat who can win statewide, not unlike his Louisiana counterpart John Bel Edwards.  Once he is term-limited out of office (assuming he wins re-election, which seems likely by this point) in 2027, Republicans will finally take the Governor's mansion, and this time keep it for the foreseeable future.

[EastwoodS]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

To be fair, Gov. Andrew Beshear could be the last Democrat who can win statewide, not unlike his Louisiana counterpart John Bel Edwards.  Once he is term-limited out of office (assuming he wins re-election, which seems likely by this point) in 2027, Republicans will finally take the Governor's mansion, and this time keep it for the foreseeable future.

Possibly, I'd say KY Democrats have a few good ones left on the bench that can make it competitive in the future, but the Beshears (KY royalty at this point) are a powerhouse in Kentucky that I can not see state Democrats replicating afterwards.

[Oryxslayer]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

To be fair, Gov. Andrew Beshear could be the last Democrat who can win statewide, not unlike his Louisiana counterpart John Bel Edwards.  Once he is term-limited out of office (assuming he wins re-election, which seems likely by this point) in 2027, Republicans will finally take the Governor's mansion, and this time keep it for the foreseeable future.

Possibly, I'd say KY Democrats have a few good ones left on the bench that can make it competitive in the future, but the Beshears (KY royalty at this point) are a powerhouse in Kentucky that I can not see state Democrats replicating afterwards.

I mean we also need to take into account that both JBE and Beshear - and arguably a good number of  the R's elected in Safe D states in the last decade - got into office the first time because the established party or their candidate was significantly tainted. Reelection came/will come through high approvals established after the fact, largely thanks to them not having to take serious or controversial positions while still participating in all the universally popular actions like say crisis assistance. If they try anything serious then they lose big like Rauner. There will always be this window for a "change" election no matter the system or context, the window for it just narrows with increasing partisan margins and attachment, and requires more craziness or scandal on the part of the dominant party.

[Pres Mike]

The problem here is that we lost Roe v. Wade under the Democrats. If I was President last year when Roe v. Wade was gutted, I would have had a remedy ready by the end of the weekend, maybe even by the end of the evening. Even after Roe v. Wade was gutted, the Democrats still did not codify Roe v. Wade when they had the chance.

I think the Democrats still control the 2 major cities in Kentucky and a few rural counties too. Are they doing anything to safeguard abortion rights in these places?

So basically this issue has become a fundraising cudgel for the Democrats. They talk a lot, but haven't done anything.

Not true. Refrendums have kept abortions in deep red states like Kansas and Kentucky.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1712120627782427057

[oldkyhome]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1712120627782427057

This is likely what’s going to make the difference. Andy has the biggest microphone which means he’s going to end strong and get a decent chunk of the remaining undecideds.