Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Laura Kelly[/b] (who tacked to the right on trans sports issues) either. That's the confusion.

She did? All I know is that she vetoed the bill for the typical reasons.

[DrScholl]

The New York Times is trying to salvage the night for Republicans by hyping up that they won Agriculture Commissioner. It's at the top of their elections page (it might have been bumped down for something else by now).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The New York Times is trying to salvage the night for Republicans by hyping up that they won Agriculture Commissioner. It's at the top of their elections page (it might have been bumped down for something else by now).

For me it’s still Beshear and the Ohio abortion referendum.

[Spectator]

Can someone explain to me why Andy Beshear has such high support among conservative voters?

It's not as if he's some big leftist.

He's not a JBE or even Laura Kelly (who tacked to the right on trans sports issues) either. That's the confusion.

Why has Sununu won all the NH-Govs races until now [retiring]? There's your answer.

If you want my cynical answer, it's his last name plus ambivalence over a relatively powerless Governorship, much like Kentucky.

[Hope For A New Era]

The Kentucky Bellwether has spoken!

We are realigned.

[Xing]

A certain poster who thought Cameron would win by 5 is suspiciously missing. I wonder why...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A certain poster who thought Cameron would win by 5 is suspiciously missing. I wonder why...

LOL clowned as badly as you were four years ago, right?

[Hope For A New Era]

Beshear +4

Prediction remains Beshear +4.

I will now accept my accolades.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Beshear +4

Prediction remains Beshear +4.

I will now accept my accolades.

KY-GOV: Beshar (D)+4
MS-GOV: Reeves (R)+7
PA Supreme Court: McCaffrey (D)+6
Ohio abortion: Yes+10
Ohio marijuana: Yes+15
Virginia House: 52 D / 48 R (net D+4)
Virginia Senate: 23 D / 17 R (net D+1)
New Jersey Assembly: 48 D / 32 R (net D+2)
New Jersey Senate: 24 D / 16 R (R+1/no change from last election)

[Hope For A New Era]

Beshear +4

Prediction remains Beshear +4.

I will now accept my accolades.

KY-GOV: Beshar (D)+4
MS-GOV: Reeves (R)+7
PA Supreme Court: McCaffrey (D)+6
Ohio abortion: Yes+10
Ohio marijuana: Yes+15
Virginia House: 52 D / 48 R (net D+4)
Virginia Senate: 23 D / 17 R (net D+1)
New Jersey Assembly: 48 D / 32 R (net D+2)
New Jersey Senate: 24 D / 16 R (R+1/no change from last election)

I said it first!

[Xing]

A certain poster who thought Cameron would win by 5 is suspiciously missing. I wonder why...

LOL clowned as badly as you were four years ago, right?

At least I owned it at the time and was much closer this time.

[ReallySuper]

so it looks like beshear broke 70% (barely) in jefferson county and 72% in fayette. just insane margins

Can someone explain to me why Andy Beshear has such high support among conservative voters?

It's not as if he's some big leftist.

He's not a JBE or even Laura Kelly (who tacked to the right on trans sports issues) either. That's the confusion.

Why has Sununu won all the NH-Govs races until now [retiring]? There's your answer.

If you want my cynical answer, it's his last name plus ambivalence over a relatively powerless Governorship, much like Kentucky.

tbh i feel like in kentucky its more that people have a strong sense that andy beshear is like.. a fundamentally good and decent human being, which is obviously very abnormal for a politician. but bc he spoke directly to kentuckians every day on tv for like two years people developed the sense that he was genuine, sincere, honest and really committed to doing the best he could for kentucky (even if people disagreed, sometimes strongly, with him on actual policy or what was even "best" for kentucky in the first place). especially compared to someone like cameron who has always kinda seemed like someone who was just in it for his own political self-advancement (this definitely was not helped by his equivocating on different issues during the campaign and the generally negative nature of his attacks)

[henster]

Will be interesting to see what moves Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman makes in the next few years since she is the most apparent successor to Beshear. KY Dems starting off a little better than LA Dems did when JBE was termed out and had no apparent successor.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Will be interesting to see what moves Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman makes in the next few years since she is the most apparent successor to Beshear. KY Dems starting off a little better than LA Dems did when JBE was termed out and had no apparent successor.

Whoa, she's hot.

[Tekken_Guy]

Will be interesting to see what moves Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman makes in the next few years since she is the most apparent successor to Beshear. KY Dems starting off a little better than LA Dems did when JBE was termed out and had no apparent successor.

Unlike Kentucky, where Beshear at least has Coleman by his side, JBE was the only Democrat in statewide office during his entire term there, as Lt. Govs are elected separately.

But if she doesn’t a 2027 gubernatorial bid, possibly a run for KY-06 one day?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Will be interesting to see what moves Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman makes in the next few years since she is the most apparent successor to Beshear. KY Dems starting off a little better than LA Dems did when JBE was termed out and had no apparent successor.

Coleman will probably be like Mike Cooney, the Montana LT Governor who ran after Bullock was term-limited. Above replacement tier vs a generic Democrat, but would still probably come up quite a bit short.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Also unlike 2019, Elliott county this time around has voted R and to the right of every statewide race result besides governor.

[Tekken_Guy]

Will be interesting to see what moves Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman makes in the next few years since she is the most apparent successor to Beshear. KY Dems starting off a little better than LA Dems did when JBE was termed out and had no apparent successor.

Coleman will probably be like Mike Cooney, the Montana LT Governor who ran after Bullock was term-limited. Above replacement tier vs a generic Democrat, but would still probably come up quite a bit short.

[Panda Express]

Sadly, a big swing in Elliott County (Beshear +21 in 2019, +7 tonight - a 14 point R swing)

[Dave Hedgehog]

Pleasantly surprised by this result. Cameron only seemed to want to make the race about Joe Biden and COVID lockdowns which ended two years ago already and ended up coming up short. Wasn't particularly close either; looks like Beshear got a higher overall vote percentage than Biden did in Minnesota in 2020.

Do wonder if a lot of this is down to R voters staying home or leaving the governor box blank on the ballot paper; Beshear may have won but it does seem like there are a lot of people who would rather die than cast a vote for even a Democrat they probably find quite agreeable on the whole.

Definitely think this is going to be the last statewide win by a Democrat in Kentucky for some time though. Can definitely see Coleman getting the Cooney treatment if she runs to succeed Beshear in 2027.

[Roll Roons]

I think Andy's win proves that partisanship still truly isn't the end-all be-all when it comes to elections, and there is something very nice about knowing that.

What was the most pro-Trump county he won, and what county saw the biggest swing compared to Biden's result?

Also Oldham, the richest and most educated county in the state, seems to have swung to Beshear marginally less than the state as a whole.

[Skill and Chance]

I think Andy's win proves that partisanship still truly isn't the end-all be-all when it comes to elections, and there is something very nice about knowing that.

What was the most pro-Trump county he won, and what county saw the biggest swing compared to Biden's result?

Also Oldham, the richest and most educated county in the state, seems to have swung to Beshear marginally less than the state as a whole.

Letcher County, a rural area in coal country on the VA border was the most pro-Trump county Beshear won.  It came in at 79% Trump.  The county that saw the biggest swing compared to Biden's result was Breathitt County, also a rural area in coal country.  Interestingly, Pike County, which is the most "urban" in coal country, swung less dramatically than its more rural neighbors.

Interestingly, the Dem also got really close (closer than you would expect based on the statewide results) in the one competitive seat on the VA side of Appalachia while none of the narrow Biden suburban seats flipped.  However, that was primarily driven by a college town.

[Pres Mike]

Beshear should be the front runner for the Democratic nomination in 2028. He is young, good looking, nice family and comes from a red state. Plus he is a governor. Americans tend to trust governors more than congressmen.

Harris and Newsom are jokes. Too easy to paint as California latte liberals.

I also like Whitmer and Warnock. But the senate's majority is too slim for Warnock to leave.

[Holmes]

Whitmer and Shapiro would be better candidates than Beshear, imo.

Harris may have problems but I don’t think the California angle will hold much weight. By 2028, she’ll have been a DC creature for about 8 years. Which comes with its own baggage.

[Xing]

I think that the takeaway is that popular governors tend to win re-election, and while you can point to some (dated) examples of them losing, that’s pretty clearly the exception to the rule.

Also, kind of wild that Beshear won Fayette by more than Jefferson, margin-wise. How Democratic is Lexington going to get?