Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Skill and Chance]

I honestly think Republicans are more likely to hold MD than Democrats are to hold LA.

Absolutely.  JBE is basically a one-man third party at this point, with no heir apparent.  Throw in a Dem president and Biden barely improving over HRC in Louisiana and this is as close to a lost cause as it gets. 

[Skill and Chance]

I noticed Cedric Richmond stepped down from the Biden admin back in May, could he be thinking of running for governor?

Perhaps, but he would have no chance. I think LA-GOV is a Safe R flip in 2023. It's just a matter of which Republican prevails.

Ossoff will be there to save the Reconstruction-present "at least one Dem statewide office in the Deep South" streak.   

[Skill and Chance]

JBE was a one-man show and was clearly viewed as more of a de facto independent candidate than a Dem.  If you look at the 2019 results, no one else even came close.  Louisiana is shaping up to be one of the most Republican states in the country so long as national Dems make abortion a centerpiece of their campaigns. 

[Skill and Chance]

I mean, I don’t think we should be wasting our money in MS either. All signs are pointing towards ds collapsing even further in the Deep South.

Yes, I think this is being overlooked.  R's don't have to win the black vote, they just have to get to ~20% overall with ~30% in rural areas and D's totally wiped out in these states.  Frankly, I think there are better opportunities in places like Kansas and even Kentucky.   

[Skill and Chance]

I wouldn’t be surprised if we never see another Democrat Governor of Louisiana in this century.

I wouldn't go that far.  In the American system, governor is by far the easiest thing for the "wrong" party to win.

[Skill and Chance]

Will this carry over to Cameron or not now, that is the question.

Or does KY defy Louisiana again as per tradition, with 2019 as an outlier, just as 2013 was a break for Virginia?

I would be more worried about all those Biden +8ish districts in Southside VA given LA Dems are losing a Biden +8 HD near New Orleans right now.  Kentucky is a different dynamic entirely, more about persuasion of presidential R’s than turnout.

[Skill and Chance]

Seeing some chatter on X that LSU having a home game tonight may have dampened dem and black turnout in EBR

That’s a 100+k people that potentially did not vote due to tailgating all day plus being at game tonight

Long-standing culture of early voting in LA so not buying this.

[Skill and Chance]

Will this carry over to Cameron or not now, that is the question.

Or does KY defy Louisiana again as per tradition, with 2019 as an outlier, just as 2013 was a break for Virginia?

I would be more worried about all those Biden +8ish districts in Southside VA given LA Dems are losing a Biden +8 HD near New Orleans right now.  Kentucky is a different dynamic entirely, more about persuasion of presidential R’s than turnout.

Respectfully, this is a "primary" on a saturday in October in a deep red state. It seems foolish to try and translate that to Virginia. Not to mention democrats are actively spending money there, as opposed to these races.

Referring specifically to the black belt part of VA here.  Agree none of what’s happening in LA is comparable to the rest of VA.

Also, are we sure this was about turnout vs. all the pro-life Dems just defecting for good?

[Skill and Chance]

Why is Louisiana so pro-life, even compared to other conservative states?

Think a big part of it is that it's filled with conservative catholics rather than protestants.

Yes, Catholic and didn’t secularize after WWII like the NE.  Even the Dem majority leader in the state senate sponsored the nothing in the state constitution can provide a right to abortion amendment that passed in 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

[Skill and Chance]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Florida is interesting because white voters are known for being relatively secular there, but it also has plenty of people who could fall under my 2nd category in the Hispanic community.  Not quite ready to say Florida left of Georgia. 

[Skill and Chance]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

[Skill and Chance]

It would be kind of hilarious if LA-05 and AL-02 finally get redrawn as VRA seats in 2024 only to continue electing Republicans for the decade.

[Skill and Chance]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

Yes, this feels like the best explanation given

1.Trump's current polling with black voters
2.The 2022/2023 results

I envision Trump making slight gains in places like inner-city Detroit, but by nowhere near enough to explain Trump's polling among black voters (even if you think it's off, it's still much higher than Trump polled in 2020). Ergo it's likely occurring in rural black counties.

Also, it would be funny because this means that AL-02 is immediately a dummymander, but Democrats might still win the seat in 2024 anyway due to downballot lag (and in 2026 due to Trump midterm).

In a true dummymander, the party seeking to change the map ends up losing more seats than they thought they stood to gain.  For that to happen in AL or LA, Dems would have to actually lose the existing Birmingham and NOLA VRA seats they hold today after the redraw, not just fail to pick up the new ones.  That seems exceedingly unlikely.

[Skill and Chance]

This thread is comedy gold

I myself remain convinced Rs have a good shot of flipping back GA, but yeah it voting to the right of FL just ain’t going to happen

If you believe double digit Biden black seats aren't safe, then it should vote to the right of FL. The polls already show GA and FL close to each other, and FL will have a 6 week abortion ban that will take effect as soon as the Supreme Court rules, and a referendum of voters voting on the 6 week ban.

After all the COVID migration, are we even confident Florida would 60% oppose a 6 week abortion ban?