Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

First and foremost, John Bel Edwards is NOT eligible for re-election in 2023. So we're getting entirely new candidates to test out.

Big names for the democrats include Mitch Landrieu (former mayor of New Orleans and former Lt. governor), LaToya Cantrell (current mayor of New Orleans), and Cedric Richmond (current senior advisor to President Biden, as well as the current Director of Public Engagement, and former congressman from LA-02 which represented most of New Orleans and some urban parts of Baton Rouge (this district is currently vacant as well)).

Big names for the republicans include John Kennedy (current Louisiana senator), Jeff Landry (current Louisiana attorney general), Billy Nungesser (current Lt. governor), and Garret Graves (current congressman from LA-06 which represents most of Baton Rouge and its suburbs), among others that I'm too lazy to name; you can find them here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election

So Louisiana is a weird state politically. On the federal level, it's as red as it can get. On the state level though, it's surprisingly a swing state. Part of this is because a lot of their state and local level democrats are more conservative/centrist leaning, including their current governor John Bel Edwards, who as of October 2020 had an approval rating of 56%. Also worth noting that there seems to be a pattern in Louisiana when it comes to the governor's party, as after an incumbent governor's term expires and they can't (or don't) run for re-election, the opposite party is elected. As far as recent history is concerned, this could probably be a republican win by default.

Any thoughts, concerns? I know it may be too early to start a Louisiana gubernatorial thread already, but let's hope to keep this thread going by their election. I or someone else may make a similar thread for Kentucky and Mississippi's elections in the same year if none already exist.

As for my gut prediction as of now for the nominees of both parties, I'm gonna guess it'll be Mitch Landrieu (D) vs Jeff Landry (R). We'll see how that holds up as we get closer.

My rating prediction: Safe R due to political partisanship, though dems nominating Landrieu could POTENTIALLY make it slightly closer.

[Real Texan Politics]

If Democrats win this race, the GOP party is dead.

Democrats would have to nominate either a terrible candidate or a complete nobody to lose this election. Though typically after two terms of one party (or one term and they retire), they're sick and tired of them and they vote for the opposite party. That's how we got Mike Foster (R) followed by Kathleen Blanco (D) followed by Bobby Jindal (R) followed by John Bel Edwards (D). Assuming the pattern continues, I'm gonna guess the next governor will be a republican, but Landrieu could make this a tighter race.

[Real Texan Politics]

I'd say the only thing that would make this safe D is if David Duke runs for governor again. Landrieu probably wins in a landslide and he probably wins Calcasieu and St Tammany parishes as well (which Edwin Edwards did against Duke in 1991).

[Real Texan Politics]

I'd say the only thing that would make this safe D is if David Duke runs for governor again. Landrieu probably wins in a landslide and he probably wins Calcasieu and St Tammany parishes as well (which Edwin Edwards did against Duke in 1991).

Even David Duke would win Louisiana with a Democrat in the Oval Office.

Nowadays the ad campaign would probably be "Vote for the Klansman: it's important (he's a PATRIOT and supports the 2A and STRONG BORDERS)"

Realistically speaking though I have high doubts Duke would win the election, let alone the primaries. I doubt he even runs to be honest. I remember he ran for senate in 2016 and got 7th place in the primaries (5th place among republicans since it was a jungle primary, though he only got 58,000 votes compared to John Kennedy who got 1st place getting 482,000).

[Real Texan Politics]

John Neely Kennedy will be the next governor imo.

I thinkhe retires fromhis senate seat in 2022 and gets replaced in the Senate by Jeff Landry.

Edwin Edwards if he wants it

He can't. Unless he receives a full pardon, he cannot seek the governorship until 15 years have passed since the end of his prison sentence, which would be in 2027 when he is 100 years old.

Face it, we're not getting the epic wizard vs lizard rematch we've all been waiting for. 

[Real Texan Politics]

We need to recruit Ed Orgeron and Joe Burrow to run!!!

Burrow I ain't so sure about. I know he's a celebrity in Louisiana but he plays in Cincinnati right now (and plus he's from Iowa).

Now Orgeron, I have extreme doubts about it as I'm sure he loves his job as LSU coach and doesn't want to leave that position anytime soon (and it would probably harm his reputation as "Coach O" if he did), though he may be slightly more likely than Burrow. Though he may be more of an independent politically? He endorsed JBE in 2019 and Trump in 2020 so I'm not sure how it'd help him in a gubernatorial run.

To summarize it all though, neither of them are running for ANY political office anytime soon.

[Real Texan Politics]

We need to recruit Ed Orgeron and Joe Burrow to run!!!

Burrow I ain't so sure about. I know he's a celebrity in Louisiana but he plays in Cincinnati right now (and plus he's from Iowa).

Now Orgeron, I have extreme doubts about it as I'm sure he loves his job as LSU coach and doesn't want to leave that position anytime soon (and it would probably harm his reputation as "Coach O" if he did), though he may be slightly more likely than Burrow. Though he may be more of an independent politically? He endorsed JBE in 2019 and Trump in 2020 so I'm not sure how it'd help him in a gubernatorial run.

To summarize it all though, neither of them are running for ANY political office anytime soon.

To clarify I’m joking. And Burrow is from Ohio not Iowa.

Well he was born in Iowa but I guess he did spend most of his life in Ohio.

[Real Texan Politics]

Honestly wonder if we may see Gary Chambers Jr. jump into this race? Obviously he won't win, but it'd still be interesting to see.

[Real Texan Politics]

We need to recruit Ed Orgeron and Joe Burrow to run!!!

Burrow I ain't so sure about. I know he's a celebrity in Louisiana but he plays in Cincinnati right now (and plus he's from Iowa).

Now Orgeron, I have extreme doubts about it as I'm sure he loves his job as LSU coach and doesn't want to leave that position anytime soon (and it would probably harm his reputation as "Coach O" if he did), though he may be slightly more likely than Burrow. Though he may be more of an independent politically? He endorsed JBE in 2019 and Trump in 2020 so I'm not sure how it'd help him in a gubernatorial run.

To summarize it all though, neither of them are running for ANY political office anytime soon.

Update: According to wikipedia, Orgeron is now listed as a potential republican candidate, as is Steve Scalise. I don't expect either of them to run though.

Jeff Landry is now listed in the "publicly expressed interest" part, and has the most outside sources by his name. Seems very likely he could end up being the nominee and eventual winner, as Kennedy will likely decline to run in order to stay in the senate, hopefully as majority leader?

P.S., bump.

[Real Texan Politics]

Toss-up. Depends on nominees. Slight GOP edge.

Er, no...

this is an even safer flip than MA-GOV 2022/MD-GOV 2022

You don't realize that LA Senate is a battlefield state now, because Kennedy has to get to 50, the game plan is win LA Sen and then Gov race, it's not the polls what's happening now in Jan it's the end result polls

That's why I have endorsed Chambers, like Warnock he can win a runoff and FL, OH and NC aren't over since Rs are only leading by 4 pts well within margin of error

Rs think they're safe Rubio and DeSantis only leading by 4 pts

Kennedy's already got 50, and he's gonna pass 60.

Safe R no matter how much #resist money Grifter Chambers gets.

Governors race is safe R too even if Chambers decides to go for governor after getting his butt handed to him in the senate race.

[Real Texan Politics]

Toss-up. Depends on nominees. Slight GOP edge.

Er, no...

this is an even safer flip than MA-GOV 2022/MD-GOV 2022

You don't realize that LA Senate is a battlefield state now, because Kennedy has to get to 50, the game plan is win LA Sen and then Gov race, it's not the polls what's happening now in Jan it's the end result polls

That's why I have endorsed Chambers, like Warnock he can win a runoff and FL, OH and NC aren't over since Rs are only leading by 4 pts well within margin of error

Rs think they're safe Rubio and DeSantis only leading by 4 pts

Kennedy's already got 50, and he's gonna pass 60.

Safe R no matter how much #resist money Grifter Chambers gets.

Governors race is safe R too even if Chambers decides to go for governor after getting his butt handed to him in the senate race.

D's just put made L A a battleground state there is no poll that shows Kennedy at 50 percent

What polls? And if they really made Louisiana a battleground priority then the party is ran by idiots.

[Real Texan Politics]

John Neely Kennedy will be the next governor imo.

I thinkhe retires fromhis senate seat in 2022 and gets replaced in the Senate by Jeff Landry.

Edwin Edwards if he wants it

He can't. Unless he receives a full pardon, he cannot seek the governorship until 15 years have passed since the end of his prison sentence, which would be in 2027 when he is 100 years old.

Face it, we're not getting the epic wizard vs lizard rematch we've all been waiting for.  

Oh and I guess I should also add that he’s dead now so…

Gimme a break safe R LA it's a Democratic state in local elections and Kennedy can still lose in a Runoff and we win the Gov race in 2023 in KY as well, as you know very well states don't vote automatically for Prez and local elections

A liberal democrat like Chambers (who’s almost certain to lose this year) is NOT winning a gubernatorial race in Louisiana, especially when Louisiana voted for Trump by nearly 20% both elections. JBE was a centrist democrat that won his first election in 2015 after the previous governor was deeply unpopular, and barely held on in 2019 due to the national environment. Had the 2019 election taken place in 2020 instead, JBE would’ve went down by a lot.

Also remember that most democrats outside of Shreveport, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans are ancestral democrats who never bothered to switch to the GOP. Sure they may vote for democrat small town mayors but I guarantee the democrat mayors in these small towns aren’t advocating for very liberal policies. I have very full confidence that the 2023 gubernatorial election is automatically safe R if it ends up between Chambers and literally any republican. And remember JBE is term-limited which basically guarantees that Louisiana will be an R flip.

[Real Texan Politics]

And now the gop might be able to flip the governorship before the election

Is this what you are referring to?

What did Gov. John Bel Edwards know about State Police coverup in Ronald Greene killing?

Yup. May he be impeached? Or recalled? How does it work there?

[Real Texan Politics]

It's quite unlikely that Democrats win, so the real contest will be for the Republican nomination.

Do you guys ever look at polls instead if Biden Approvals, Approvals mainly matter in Prez cycles not off yet Elections and Beshear is leading we don't have a candidate until Mixon or Chambers finish campaigning against Kennedy were not gonna win MS that's the only safe state in 2023, LA is a Runoff state that's why Mixon will win in second round against Kennedy

Yes we do, and they usually suck.

And yes, Louisiana is a runoff state. However this is not an open race, and with Louisiana being a safe R state with an R incumbent in a RED WAVE YEAR, I’m very confident Kennedy will get well over 50% in the first round, so no runoff needed.

[Real Texan Politics]

Lemme just say this now before the inevitable Gary Chambers gubernatorial bid in 2023 after he gets his butt kicked in this year's senate race...

Gary Chambers is trying too hard to be the Louisiana Stacey Abrams, but he's ending up as the Louisiana Beto O'Rourke.

[Real Texan Politics]

In local news, former St Tammany Parish Sheriff Jack Strain has been sentenced to life in prison.

That might not be something that really affects the governors race, but interesting news nonetheless. I wonder what happened.

[Real Texan Politics]

Lemme just say this now before the inevitable Gary Chambers gubernatorial bid in 2023 after he gets his butt kicked in this year's senate race...

Gary Chambers is trying too hard to be the Louisiana Stacey Abrams, but he's ending up as the Louisiana Beto O'Rourke.

Beto got close, chambers wont

I mean as someone who’ll continue to run for different offices and fail at every run.

[Real Texan Politics]

Lemme just say this now before the inevitable Gary Chambers gubernatorial bid in 2023 after he gets his butt kicked in this year's senate race...

Gary Chambers is trying too hard to be the Louisiana Stacey Abrams, but he's ending up as the Louisiana Beto O'Rourke.

Abrams' and O'Rourke's only accomplishment is losing (soon to be losing twice)

Exactly.

[Real Texan Politics]

Big news, looks like Jeff Landry has officially announced his bid for governor.

https://www.wdsu.com/article/louisiana-attorney-general-jeff-landry-governor/41531226#

[Real Texan Politics]

I noticed Cedric Richmond stepped down from the Biden admin back in May, could he be thinking of running for governor?