Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

It goes full Montana and yields a safe R open election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Has anyone brought up the possibility of two Democrats sneaking into the top 2 with all these Republicans running?

I think a Washington 2016 Treasurer situation has only ever penalised Dems, can't think of a reverse situation.

It happened in 2020 to Christy Smith's state Assembly seat. The five Democratic candidates collectively got more votes in the primary than the two Republicans, but the Democrats got locked out because three of them were only separated by a handful of votes.

Christy Smith is a living bad luck charm I think.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why would it be lean D if she runs?

It's Olawakandi.

[Progressive Pessimist]

First election in a while democrats didn’t over perform. Wow.

Riverwalk is right — if Dem overperformance is coming in large part from Dobbs, this is exactly the place that pattern would break.

Wonder if this will translate in the two elections coming up in a couple of weeks.

Virginia will be a better bellwether for 2024, I think.

Who even knows anymore? 2021 results in the state didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Now, I haven't paid that much attention to this race, but did Wilson run heavily on repeoductive rights? If so, I'm not particularly surprised to see this result. If a national "yes" or "no" referendum were to take place whether to ban abortion or not, I would still expect the Deep South states and maybe the Mormon triangle to be holdouts for banning it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

One note about this race when it comes to the polling, most may have underestimated Landry or overestimated other Republicans in the jungle primary, but they consistently kind of nailed the mid-20's percentage Wilson eventually got.