Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[JMT]

Shawn Wilson formally announced his candidacy today:

https://twitter.com/wilsonforla/status/1632730066143641601?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

[smoltchanov]

Shawn Wilson formally announced his candidacy today:

https://twitter.com/wilsonforla/status/1632730066143641601?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

Exactly zero chances to win (as it would be for any candidate with "national Democratic views", Black or White, but especially - Black), but, nevertheless, probably one of the strongest candidates Democrats can run now. That says a lot about state of the party in Louisiana.

[Suburbia]

Shawn Wilson and Chris Jones (AR) are the perfect type of Democratic candidates, but sadly they can't win because of racial and political polarization...

Safe R......

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/tegbridges/status/1633124161798258690?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4t...

[Duke of York]

Shawn Wilson and Chris Jones (AR) are the perfect type of Democratic candidates, but sadly they can't win because of racial and political polarization...

Safe R......

what makes you think Wilson can't win?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just like Progressive Moderate has an R nut map users don't believe in blue waves and status quo just like users say that 22 was a Neutral yr because Deming's, Ryan and aBeasley lost and we won KS 22 these are upsets not sure wins but this is a blog not ratings and you can PRED whatever Cook and Sabato had KS wrong and pred RS to have 240H

I was critical of Biden during Docugate because RS had a Honeymoon in the R H majority but they don't have a budget and the Debt Ceiling needs to get some so it faded

[Del Tachi]

LABI lobbyist and former chief of staff to Bobby Jindal, Stephen Waguespack (R) is expected to announce a gubernatorial run as soon as today.

[Lechasseur]

The Republicans are all staying out of this race, clearing the field for Landry to a degree I wasn't expecting.

I'd be surprised if Landry isn't elected the next governor, given all of his viable opponents seem to have decided against running.

[Lechasseur]

It looks like the most significant challenger Jeff Landry is going to have is John Schroder, the State Treasurer.

I more or less knew how the other major Republicans were positioned politically, but I have to admit I don't know much about Schroder. Is he more moderate, more conservative, or similar to Landry? Is there any possibility he becomes the de facto alternative candidate to Landry?

[smoltchanov]

It looks like the most significant challenger Jeff Landry is going to have is John Schroder, the State Treasurer.

I more or less knew how the other major Republicans were positioned politically, but I have to admit I don't know much about Schroder. Is he more moderate, more conservative, or similar to Landry? Is there any possibility he becomes the de facto alternative candidate to Landry?

Local denizens will give better answer, but, AFAIK - he is a solid conservative, almost "on par" with Landry, just less "vocal". Nungesser would be "moderate alternative" to Landry, but, with him deciding to pass this race, in absence of Vitter-type scandal i don't see real alternatives to Landry now..

[Lechasseur]

It looks like the most significant challenger Jeff Landry is going to have is John Schroder, the State Treasurer.

I more or less knew how the other major Republicans were positioned politically, but I have to admit I don't know much about Schroder. Is he more moderate, more conservative, or similar to Landry? Is there any possibility he becomes the de facto alternative candidate to Landry?

Local denizens will give better answer, but, AFAIK - he is a solid conservative, almost "on par" with Landry, just less "vocal". Nungesser would be "moderate alternative" to Landry, but, with him deciding to pass this race, in absence of Vitter-type scandal i don't see real alternatives to Landry now..

Yeah makes sense.

I think the only people who could have beaten Landry would have been Kennedy (the Governor's Mansion was his if he wanted it, I'm honestly not sure why he decided not to run at the end) and Nungesser (who could have made the race competititive, and given Kennedy didn't run I don't know why he didn't try).

But yeah Schroder seems both too unknown and undistinguished, and also too similar to Landry in order to be an effective challenger.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users need to stop underestimate D's you see what's going on in KY and MS this is a Runoff all Wilson has to do is make the runoff

[Suburbia]

Shawn Wilson and Chris Jones (AR) are the perfect type of Democratic candidates, but sadly they can't win because of racial and political polarization...

Safe R......

what makes you think Wilson can't win?

He can't win. He's a Black Democrat in the Deep South in a red state in a racially hostile period right now. We are living in the CRT/woke era and LA is more rightwing than AR. He'll end up like Chris Jones.

The only way he wins is if he gets a large percentage of white Republicans who don't care for Landry. Likely/Safe R, despite Wilson being more qualified and intelligent than Landry.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shawn Wilson and Chris Jones (AR) are the perfect type of Democratic candidates, but sadly they can't win because of racial and political polarization...

Safe R......

what makes you think Wilson can't win?

He can't win. He's a Black Democrat in the Deep South in a red state in a racially hostile period right now. We are living in the CRT/woke era and LA is more rightwing than AR. He'll end up like Chris Jones.

The only way he wins is if he gets a large percentage of white Republicans who don't care for Landry. Likely/Safe R, despite Wilson being more qualified and intelligent than Landry.

You don't know he is leading the Primary over RS 29/28 only if he eliminates in Primary on Aug 18 is it Safe R

[miles prower]

Trump endorses Landry
https://jefflandry.com/president-donald-trump-endorses-jeff-landry-for-governor/

Also, the state GOP is lining up behind John Fleming for Treasurer
https://twitter.com/LAGOP/status/1654160657057554432

[wbrocks67]

Trump really kicked Cameron to the curb? That's kind of shocking lol

[Roll Roons]

Trump really kicked Cameron to the curb? That's kind of shocking lol

Cameron is running in a different state.

[wbrocks67]

Trump really kicked Cameron to the curb? That's kind of shocking lol

Cameron is running in a different state.

oh god you're right. my bad, monday morning brain lol

[Arizona Iced Tea]

They found a decent candidate for the Mississippi governor's race, why can't they do the same for Louisiana? It's not like the states demographics are that different from Mississippi and it literaly elected a Dem governor in 2015 and 2019. There is also the advantage that it is an open seat and thus no incumbent to run against. Sure, its still an uphill battle to win but it feels like an error to simply triage this one if you are willing to go all in on Mississippi.

[DaleCooper]

Democrats' obsession with electability leads them to give up on a lot of races that would be uphill battles.

[smoltchanov]

Democrats won Louisiana in 2015 mostly because of two reasons:

1. EXTREMELY big scandal with Vitter
2. Good candidate - generally populist (and white) with some strong conservative overtones (absolutely pro-life for example).

They won in 2019 (narrowly) because of incumbency, rather weak Republican candidate, and, again, because of JBE's strong pro-life position, which held considerable number of socially conservative Democrats "ln line".

None of these factors exist in 2023.

[Benjamin Frank]

I don't know about 'seriously contesting' but Democrats are making a credible effort at least in that the party has rallied around Shawn Wilson, JBE's former Transportation Secretary.

Just because he hasn't held an elected office previously, I don't think he should be regarded as  a writeoff.

https://www.wilsonforla.com/

Louisiana governor’s race: Wilson campaign raises nearly $580K in 30 days
https://www.brproud.com/news/louisiana-governors-race-wilson-campaign-raises-nearly-580k-in-30-days/


As the only Democrat of any profile running, he should at least make the runoff.

After that, it's unlikely he'll win, but there are paths to victory if he runs against Jeff Landry and especially against Stephen Waguespack who was Governor Bobby Jindal's Chief of Staff.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I mean, I don’t think we should be wasting our money in MS either. All signs are pointing towards ds collapsing even further in the Deep South.

[Pollster]

No reason to be doing anything yet with only one Democrat running in the top-two primary against a series of well-funded Republicans who will spend all their time dragging each other down.

Real question is whether a serious effort is made during the runoff - no definitive signs yet that there will or won't be.

[smoltchanov]

After that, it's unlikely he'll win, but there are paths to victory if he runs against Jeff Landry and especially against Stephen Waguespack who was Governor Bobby Jindal's Chief of Staff.

No, really there is no path. Jindal is "a thing of the past", and grudges against him are mostly obsolete now. Landry is an extremist, but without big Vitter-type scandals, so he will win against Wilson. Obviously - Wilson will get at least 40% of vote (if he runs real campaign). The problem is to get 10 "next". 45 is possible with very good Democratic candidate or with problematic Republican, but 50 - there must be something really big (as in 2015) for that. Otherwise - too steadfast white vote against Democratic candidate dooms everything. Under more or less "normal" situation 46-47% (Hood percentage in Mississippi in 2019) is upper limit...