Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Sub Jero]

https://mobile.twitter.com/theadvocatebr/status/1483960001081315335

[Frodo]

So most everyone is in agreement that Republicans will claim the governor's mansion.  Can they finally win a veto-proof majority in the Louisiana House? They fell short by only a couple of seats last time.  Here is the current breakdown in the chamber:

Republicans: 68
Democrats: 33
independents: 3
vacancies: 1

https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2023

Or will they get that magic 70 as a result of redistricting alone?

[smoltchanov]

So most everyone is in agreement that Republicans will claim the governor's mansion.  Can they finally win a veto-proof majority in the Louisiana House? They fell short by only a couple of seats last time.  Here is the current breakdown in the chamber:

Republicans: 68
Democrats: 33
independents: 3
vacancies: 1

https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana_State_Legislature

Or will they get that magic 70 as a result of redistricting alone?

Both are possible. AFAIK - redistricting strengthened Republican positions in legislature somewhat. In addition - usually, Republicns can count on at least 2 (sometimes - all 3)  Indies (one of which is a former conservative-leaning Democrat from conservative district), and on Francis Thompson - really conservative Democrat from North-East of the state, who was so well known (and popular) in his district, that Republicans didn't run a candidate against him in 2019, despite district being 70+% Trump... If (what's likely) Thompson retires in 2023 (he will be 82) - district will surely elect even more conservative republican. So - "yes" is very likely..

[Hot Tub Poster]

Lt Gov. Billy Nungesser is running. I’m kind of surprised he didn’t run in 2019. He probably would have won. So so far we have him and Schroder.

I think the most likely outcome is a single major dem getting first place and losing the runoff to a Republican. If the gop field is really divided, dems might want to run two candidates which could block ant Republican from going to the runoff.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Hopefully we get Dardenne.

[Chip of the Chop]

wwno.org/2022-09-09/did-jeff-landry-just-launch-his-bid-for-louisiana-governor-at-a-gator-hunt?_amp=true

Looks like Jeff Landry is running, along with Nungesser and Schroder.

Will Mitch Landrieu run?

[Real Texan Politics]

Big news, looks like Jeff Landry has officially announced his bid for governor.

https://www.wdsu.com/article/louisiana-attorney-general-jeff-landry-governor/41531226#

[Zebulan9003]

Could we see an R v R runoff here?

I think it's possible if Dem's don't unite behind a single candidate like they did for JBE.

[NewYorkExpress]

Could we see an R v R runoff here?

I think it's possible if Dem's don't unite behind a single candidate like they did for JBE.

I think an R vs R runoff is the most likely scenario unless Democrats get another really strong candidate (in which case they may even have a decent shot a holding the Governor's mansion mansion, especially if that candidate is someone like LaToya Cantrell or Mitch Landrieu who can rack up votes in New Orleans).

[soundchaser]

LaToya has burned a TON of good will in just the last few weeks. There’s no way she has a shot at statewide office.

[Real Texan Politics]

I noticed Cedric Richmond stepped down from the Biden admin back in May, could he be thinking of running for governor?

[Calthrina950]

I noticed Cedric Richmond stepped down from the Biden admin back in May, could he be thinking of running for governor?

Perhaps, but he would have no chance. I think LA-GOV is a Safe R flip in 2023. It's just a matter of which Republican prevails.

[Mt Sinai]

Who would win a Landry vs Nungesser runoff?

I think Landry would be favored since Nungesser would be framed as the RINO candidate.

[Lechasseur]

Who would win a Landry vs Nungesser runoff?

I think Landry would be favored since Nungesser would be framed as the RINO candidate.

I'm not so sure about that. Landry is the most polarizing of any of the candidates in this race. I'm actually of the opinion that Landry likely loses to any Republican as the other Republican probably gets enough Democratic voters to get them over the finish line, if nothing else. That being said, Landry would beat any Democrat.

If it was Kennedy vs Nungesser? Yes that would be a very likely Kennedy Victory, but between Landry and Nungesser I actually think Nungesser would stand a good chance. And I think Landry is the only Republican Nungesser could beat.

[Skill and Chance]

I noticed Cedric Richmond stepped down from the Biden admin back in May, could he be thinking of running for governor?

Perhaps, but he would have no chance. I think LA-GOV is a Safe R flip in 2023. It's just a matter of which Republican prevails.

Ossoff will be there to save the Reconstruction-present "at least one Dem statewide office in the Deep South" streak.   

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Titanium safe R this time around. I'm really sad about this one. JBE is my favorite governor of all governors that are currently governing.

[Calthrina950]

I noticed Cedric Richmond stepped down from the Biden admin back in May, could he be thinking of running for governor?

Perhaps, but he would have no chance. I think LA-GOV is a Safe R flip in 2023. It's just a matter of which Republican prevails.

Ossoff will be there to save the Reconstruction-present "at least one Dem statewide office in the Deep South" streak.   

This is assuming that Warnock loses. If he doesn't, then there will be two.

[Flyersfan232]

Lemme just say this now before the inevitable Gary Chambers gubernatorial bid in 2023 after he gets his butt kicked in this year's senate race...

Gary Chambers is trying too hard to be the Louisiana Stacey Abrams, but he's ending up as the Louisiana Beto O'Rourke.

Beta got close once thoughs

[Suburbia]

Mitch Landrieu is the only Democrat that can keep this seat...

Other than that, Likely R.

[Lechasseur]

Mitch Landrieu is the only Democrat that can keep this seat...

Other than that, Likely R.

10 years ago, he would have been a very strong candidate.

But he governed New Orleans fairly liberally and made some polarizing decisions that alienated the former Blue Dog swing voters he would need in order to win.

At this point I think he'd lose to just about any Republican.

[Paloney]

The state GOP offered an early endorsement of Landry, with Nungesser and Shroder crying foul.

Also, there has been some talk about John Kennedy leaving the Senate to run for Governor.

[Kleine Scheiße]

https://youtu.be/dhVXFE_gdCo

[Zedonathin2020]

What exactly are the odds of Kennedy running?

[Not Me, Us]

What exactly are the odds of Kennedy running?

I feel like he makes noise about running for Governor every four years, but he's never pulled the trigger. It's kind of a boy who cried wolf situation at this point.

[Oryxslayer]

What exactly are the odds of Kennedy running?

I feel like he makes noise about running for Governor every four years, but he's never pulled the trigger. It's kind of a boy who cried wolf situation at this point.

Maybe both senators will face each other? Nah too exciting...

https://twitter.com/maryfrancesmcg/status/1592863688528400385?s=20&t=aJJ5Eij...