Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[smoltchanov]

Well, Louisiana elections demonstrate general problems of minority parties, being that Democratic in most of the South, or Republican, say, in Hawaii, Vermont or Massachusetts: minority  parties and their leaders are generally concerned with preserving their small "plots" - and that, essentially, all. What party development??!! Their concern is to preserve, say, their state Senate seat, and everything is tailored for this, and this only. It seems there is a sort of informal agreements between parties in such cases: "we will tend our plots, and you don't bother us here, we will do the same and not bother you in your plots". From such point of view last elections were relative success (despite general drubbing) for Democrats: they lost only 1 state Senate seat (which, probably, only Gary Smith could hold), and may preserve status quo in House. But Democrats ran no serious candidates in a districts they didn't held before (or even in a moderate district reperesented by Independent Marino). As i wrote above - only 3 Democrats went into runoff in Republican-held House districts, and their chances of victory are near zero. The same will happen in Mississippi next month, and we observe the same in Hawaii or Massachusetts: Republicans in Massachusetts don't run candidates in 2/3 to 3/4 districts, but, Democrats don't run anyone against, say, Tarr, though his district went about 60% for Biden. In Hawaii Republicans are mostly interested in holding (anf rarely - gaining) seats in "their" area (say - with strong Mormon presence), and almost ignore most of the statewide or congressional races.

Another problem (which i also mentioned frequently) - state parties lost their "independence" from national one sometime in 1970, and now simply mirror positions of national party, despite (frequently) quite different environment iin their states. Take Louisiana, for example. Not especially conservative on economics (though not most liberal either), but very conservative on abortion. There are few areas  (New Orleans, Baton Rouge and, in some case - Shreveport), where solidly pro-choice candidates have chances, and that's not enough for statewide win (it's another matter, say, in California or New York, where there are enough pro-choice majority in NYC and close suburbs to rather easily overcome generally pro-life feelings of Upstate).  IF you want to win a statewide race there - you must take into consideration that fact. Louisiana itself demonstrates that - it was ready to vote for "pro-life populist" JBE not only in 2015, when there was a big scandal on Republican side, but even in 2019 (admittedly - with rather weak Republican candidate, but still). In addition - that candidate (JBE) was conveniently white. In 2023 Democratic candidate was not only Black, but, what was even more important - social liberal. BOTH parties now subjugate their state and local candidates to national standards: even 15 years ago no one demanded not only in the South, but - from Catholic Democratic candidates in the North too, an obligatory pro-choice position, and Republicans, while being generally pro-life, happily ran pro-choice candidates in the North-East (and frequently won). What now??? A "RINO-hunt" in Republican party and "DINO-hunt" in Democratic. Both parties became very similar to our Russian Bolshevicks and then - Commuist party of Soviet Union. Absolutely no tolerance of diversity on important issues. I wrote many times, that it may work, when you have parlamentary system with, say, 7-10 political parties running the whole political spectrum. But in US??? With 2 parties? As a result we have an extremely serious (and stronger with each year) political crisis threatening to evolve in real Civil War in not so distant future.

Sorry for a long post, but it's how it looks from far abroad (Moscow). It's a sad feeling, when one sees democracy (with small "d") staggering and crumbling not only in my Russia, but in US and similar countries as well..

[smoltchanov]

And small addition on the above mentioned "RINO-hunting" and "DINO-hunting". Ironically, these campaigns are fiercely going at the time, when, essentially, there are no RINO's and DINO's at least on relatively high posts (state legislatures and higher). I mentioned once, that i have first (1971-1972) edition of "Almanac of American politics". When i hear NOW about "RINO's" and "DINO's" - i begin to laugh, and have strong desire to say "guys. you don't even know, what these terms mean...". The most moderate congressional Republicans of now (Collins, Murkowski, Fitzpatrick) would be considered "right-of-center" types then, and aren't even remorely comparable with Case, Javits, Ogden Reid, Charles Whalen, Mathias and many other Republican members of Congress of that time. Or even Morella, Boehlert and other if we speak about much more recent times. The same is true for state legislatures: there are no RINO's anymore. Not even in Vermont, Massachisetts or New York. And even Phil Scott (arguably the most liberal high-ranking Republican of present) would be, most likely, somewhere between "left center" and "moderate liberal", and couldn't pretend to be "the most liberal Republican governor"

The same true for DINO's: Manchin? He would be considered "slightly left-of-center type" then and wouldn't hold any comparison with Andrews  and Allen of Alabama, Abbitt, Satterfield  or Daniel of Virginia, Burleson, Fisher and Dowdy of Texas and so on. You want more recent time? Good, even in 2009-2010 Democratic caucus in House had Minnick and Bright, who, while NOT being reactionary (as Larry Mcdonald or John Rarick in the past were) still could be called "pragmatic conservatives". And Manchin is incomparable even with them.

Just as there are no more RINO's in state legislatures now (the most moderate Republican state legislators are "slightly left-of-center" type), there are no DINO's as well: the only one, who could be even remotely considered for this title - Louisiana's Francis Thompson (though even he is LESS conservative, then many Democratic state legislators in the South (and not only there) in recent past) switched this spring and was happily reelected as a Republican two days ago, so he is NOT a Democrat anymore. Guys, all this talk about RINO's and DINO's is extremely hypocritical:  it's simply a way to defame anyone, who dares to  deviate from "official party line" (even rarely). Nothing more...

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/AndrewFiggy/status/1713606900141482155
https://twitter.com/AndrewFiggy/status/1713606902406336840
https://twitter.com/AndrewFiggy/status/1713607644873724252

[soundchaser]

We got a few Lundy ads in Jefferson Parish as well -- to the point where I thought "huh, in another time, this guy might have had a shot."

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Trump is gonna win Louisiana by 30 points. I wouldn't be surprised if he clears 60% in the deep south

No he won’t.

There's a good chance he will. The bottom has probably fallen out of Democrats in the Deep South.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna win Louisiana by 30 points. I wouldn't be surprised if he clears 60% in the deep south

No he won’t.

There's a good chance he will. The bottom has probably fallen out of Democrats in the Deep South.

Rassy has Biden at 48 not 60 we are in good shape in Blue states and MS G is vulnerable , Reeves only won by 5 last times, were we gonna sweep no but Rs finally won a special Eday in 23. After going 0)5. Rs are supposed to sweep us in R 22 and they aren't Cameron is gonna lose

We won WI by 11 and 5 specials in PA in 2016 where Hillary lost Rs won all specials in MI, PA and WI

The Indictment aren't gonna give us a Landslide

[DrScholl]

Trump is gonna win Louisiana by 30 points. I wouldn't be surprised if he clears 60% in the deep south

No he won’t.

There's a good chance he will. The bottom has probably fallen out of Democrats in the Deep South.

He won't. There aren't enough rural areas for him to pull that off and like in many other places he's alienated suburban voters to some extent.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lundy received less than 2/3 as many votes as Biden got. Trying to draw conclusions from this is absurd and shows a lack of understanding of math.

[wbrocks67]

Unsurprising - Reps had 47% turnout for this years election, while Dems only 36%

https://twitter.com/MichaelPruser/status/1716536666494525894