Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Senator Incitatus]

Not seeing what this has to do with Beshear one month and a thousand miles away.

[smoltchanov]

Well, the problem (from Democratic point of view) is not only Landry. It's the fact, that in low turnout conservative activists-dominated election like yesterday the most conservative wing of Republican party wins at the expense of more pragmatic (even if still conservative) wing. Most serious R-R races yesterday went for "ideologues" in Republican party, and run-offs will have even lesser turnout - so their ranks may expand even more. There are Republicans (at least there were) who want to govern (and more or less knows how to do that), and there is considerable number of local "Matt Gaetz'es" who, essentially, knows only how to destruct things under the guise of "following their principles". The last category of people will be more vocal and more influential as a result...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I now accept my accolades! /s

[GALeftist]

This thread is comedy gold

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This thread is comedy gold

I myself remain convinced Rs have a good shot of flipping back GA, but yeah it voting to the right of FL just ain’t going to happen

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It would be kind of hilarious if LA-05 and AL-02 finally get redrawn as VRA seats in 2024 only to continue electing Republicans for the decade.

Not a chance, but the Republican wishcasting in this thread has been hilarious

[wbrocks67]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

Yes, this feels like the best explanation given

1.Trump's current polling with black voters
2.The 2022/2023 results

I envision Trump making slight gains in places like inner-city Detroit, but by nowhere near enough to explain Trump's polling among black voters (even if you think it's off, it's still much higher than Trump polled in 2020). Ergo it's likely occurring in rural black counties.

Also, it would be funny because this means that AL-02 is immediately a dummymander, but Democrats might still win the seat in 2024 anyway due to downballot lag (and in 2026 due to Trump midterm).

I wouldn't count on any of this happening. Making predictions on a very low turnout election is silly. But you'll disappear after Trump loses like the trolls for Romney did so...

It isn't a one-off. Budd improved significantly on Trump in Eastern North Carolina and even Walker improved on Trump in the black belt of Georgia. We also saw similar effects in Alabama and Misssissippi in 2022. And midterm trends tend to significantly lag Presidential trends.

It's possible Trump loses (ie if Biden somehow flips Florida due to the abortion referendum), but I'm quite confident Trump will win Georgia and North Carolina.

You do know that the Pew validated survey has Dems winning 91% of the black vote last year, right? Black voters who turned out were pretty much just as Dem as usual. The key was turnout in the end.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This thread is comedy gold

I myself remain convinced Rs have a good shot of flipping back GA, but yeah it voting to the right of FL just ain’t going to happen

If you believe double digit Biden black seats aren't safe, then it should vote to the right of FL. The polls already show GA and FL close to each other, and FL will have a 6 week abortion ban that will take effect as soon as the Supreme Court rules, and a referendum of voters voting on the 6 week ban.

[Skill and Chance]

This thread is comedy gold

I myself remain convinced Rs have a good shot of flipping back GA, but yeah it voting to the right of FL just ain’t going to happen

If you believe double digit Biden black seats aren't safe, then it should vote to the right of FL. The polls already show GA and FL close to each other, and FL will have a 6 week abortion ban that will take effect as soon as the Supreme Court rules, and a referendum of voters voting on the 6 week ban.

After all the COVID migration, are we even confident Florida would 60% oppose a 6 week abortion ban?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This thread is comedy gold

I myself remain convinced Rs have a good shot of flipping back GA, but yeah it voting to the right of FL just ain’t going to happen

If you believe double digit Biden black seats aren't safe, then it should vote to the right of FL. The polls already show GA and FL close to each other, and FL will have a 6 week abortion ban that will take effect as soon as the Supreme Court rules, and a referendum of voters voting on the 6 week ban.

After all the COVID migration, are we even confident Florida would 60% oppose a 6 week abortion ban?

They would likely oppose that but it's certainly not enough for Trump to even be held to his 2020 margin, let alone actually lose the state

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This thread is comedy gold

I myself remain convinced Rs have a good shot of flipping back GA, but yeah it voting to the right of FL just ain’t going to happen

If you believe double digit Biden black seats aren't safe, then it should vote to the right of FL. The polls already show GA and FL close to each other, and FL will have a 6 week abortion ban that will take effect as soon as the Supreme Court rules, and a referendum of voters voting on the 6 week ban.

After all the COVID migration, are we even confident Florida would 60% oppose a 6 week abortion ban?

I'm not, but in any case the referendum will lead to a lot of spending by outside groups in Florida, because it's the last state in the South with abortion past 6 weeks and is often an abortion tourist destination as a result. The fact that the threshold is 60% is even better in respect, because this means that outside spending groups will actually try hard (rather than taking it for granted if it's 50%).

Even if the abortion amendment fails, Biden/Mucarsel-Powell will likely put up a respectable performance as a result. It won't be like 2022 at all where Democrats didn't try.

From what I've seen, the COVID migration caused about 100k extra registered Rs than Ds in FL in new voters (Texas also has a slight R advantage from this) - the rest of the registration advantage is entirely from "voter maintainance" purging inactive voters that probably won't vote anyway. This is not even 1%, and in any case Rs are gaining in registration across the nation anyway, so it might just be a function of people wanting to register R more to vote in their primaries.

Also, 2024 polls seem to show age depolarization...

[DrScholl]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

Yes, this feels like the best explanation given

1.Trump's current polling with black voters
2.The 2022/2023 results

I envision Trump making slight gains in places like inner-city Detroit, but by nowhere near enough to explain Trump's polling among black voters (even if you think it's off, it's still much higher than Trump polled in 2020). Ergo it's likely occurring in rural black counties.

Also, it would be funny because this means that AL-02 is immediately a dummymander, but Democrats might still win the seat in 2024 anyway due to downballot lag (and in 2026 due to Trump midterm).

I wouldn't count on any of this happening. Making predictions on a very low turnout election is silly. But you'll disappear after Trump loses like the trolls for Romney did so...

It isn't a one-off. Budd improved significantly on Trump in Eastern North Carolina and even Walker improved on Trump in the black belt of Georgia. We also saw similar effects in Alabama and Misssissippi in 2022. And midterm trends tend to significantly lag Presidential trends.

It's possible Trump loses (ie if Biden somehow flips Florida due to the abortion referendum), but I'm quite confident Trump will win Georgia and North Carolina.

The point has already been made that a lot of rural Black counties are depopulating, so the trend line has less to do with Black voters shifting and more to do with population decline. That said, Walker still did as badly as Trump did with the Black vote and lost by more than he did overall.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

And I'm sorry but "MUH LOW BLACK TURNOUT" is getting really old. You are assuming that the black voters that don't vote as often are as democratic as the ones that did, and while that may have been true in the past, it may not be anymore. In fact, there was a poster here(I can't recall the name) who said one of the reasons the polling may have underestimated D's in 2022 is because it OVERESTIMATED voter turnout. Many low propensity R voters may have said they were going to vote but were not passionate enough to actually do so when election day came.

[Progressive Pessimist]

One note about this race when it comes to the polling, most may have underestimated Landry or overestimated other Republicans in the jungle primary, but they consistently kind of nailed the mid-20's percentage Wilson eventually got.

[wbrocks67]

And I'm sorry but "MUH LOW BLACK TURNOUT" is getting really old. You are assuming that the black voters that don't vote as often are as democratic as the ones that did, and while that may have been true in the past, it may not be anymore. In fact, there was a poster here(I can't recall the name) who said one of the reasons the polling may have underestimated D's is because it OVERESTIMATED voter turnout. Many low propensity R voters may have said they were going to vote but were not passionate enough to actually do so when election day came.

How is it getting "old" when it's factually true? Just look at NOLA turnout, or the fact that Wilson only got 71% there.

[GALeftist]

And I'm sorry but "MUH LOW BLACK TURNOUT" is getting really old. You are assuming that the black voters that don't vote as often are as democratic as the ones that did, and while that may have been true in the past, it may not be anymore. In fact, there was a poster here(I can't recall the name) who said one of the reasons the polling may have underestimated D's is because it OVERESTIMATED voter turnout. Many low propensity R voters may have said they were going to vote but were not passionate enough to actually do so when election day came.

I have no doubt that lower propensity black voters are less Democratic than their high propensity counterparts. I also have no doubt that they are overwhelmingly Democratic, especially in Louisiana, and that they tend to drop off sooner than white voters. QED

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

And I'm sorry but "MUH LOW BLACK TURNOUT" is getting really old. You are assuming that the black voters that don't vote as often are as democratic as the ones that did, and while that may have been true in the past, it may not be anymore. In fact, there was a poster here(I can't recall the name) who said one of the reasons the polling may have underestimated D's is because it OVERESTIMATED voter turnout. Many low propensity R voters may have said they were going to vote but were not passionate enough to actually do so when election day came.

How is it getting "old" when it's factually true? Just look at NOLA turnout, or the fact that Wilson only got 71% there.

Because it doesn’t fit the doomer narrative

[Farmlands]

My only takeaway from this is that the Beshear+16 poll definitely isn't accurate, but then again, we all already knew that on account of it being from Memerson.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/MatthewBoedy/status/1713712941193699632

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

Yes, this feels like the best explanation given

1.Trump's current polling with black voters
2.The 2022/2023 results

I envision Trump making slight gains in places like inner-city Detroit, but by nowhere near enough to explain Trump's polling among black voters (even if you think it's off, it's still much higher than Trump polled in 2020). Ergo it's likely occurring in rural black counties.

Also, it would be funny because this means that AL-02 is immediately a dummymander, but Democrats might still win the seat in 2024 anyway due to downballot lag (and in 2026 due to Trump midterm).

I wouldn't count on any of this happening. Making predictions on a very low turnout election is silly. But you'll disappear after Trump loses like the trolls for Romney did so...

It isn't a one-off. Budd improved significantly on Trump in Eastern North Carolina and even Walker improved on Trump in the black belt of Georgia. We also saw similar effects in Alabama and Misssissippi in 2022. And midterm trends tend to significantly lag Presidential trends.

It's possible Trump loses (ie if Biden somehow flips Florida due to the abortion referendum), but I'm quite confident Trump will win Georgia and North Carolina.

Republican improvements in 2022 in these areas was mostly due to dismal Black turnout. Look at how some of these places voted in 2014 for a comparison.

It's fairly clear that you know nothing about race dynamics in the south and how especially in the rural south, the legacy of racism is still so persistent that even some very conservative Black voters would not dare vote for the Republican Party. The Black Belt counties will never see a shift as dramatic as the RGV 2020 in one cycle.

You also seem to be completely forgetting the massive gains Democrats are making in suburban Atlanta which will more than make up for some slight slipping in the Black Belt which is not very populated at all.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

Yes, this feels like the best explanation given

1.Trump's current polling with black voters
2.The 2022/2023 results

I envision Trump making slight gains in places like inner-city Detroit, but by nowhere near enough to explain Trump's polling among black voters (even if you think it's off, it's still much higher than Trump polled in 2020). Ergo it's likely occurring in rural black counties.

Also, it would be funny because this means that AL-02 is immediately a dummymander, but Democrats might still win the seat in 2024 anyway due to downballot lag (and in 2026 due to Trump midterm).

I wouldn't count on any of this happening. Making predictions on a very low turnout election is silly. But you'll disappear after Trump loses like the trolls for Romney did so...

It isn't a one-off. Budd improved significantly on Trump in Eastern North Carolina and even Walker improved on Trump in the black belt of Georgia. We also saw similar effects in Alabama and Misssissippi in 2022. And midterm trends tend to significantly lag Presidential trends.

It's possible Trump loses (ie if Biden somehow flips Florida due to the abortion referendum), but I'm quite confident Trump will win Georgia and North Carolina.

Republican improvements in 2022 in these areas was mostly due to dismal Black turnout. Look at how some of these places voted in 2014 for a comparison.

It's fairly clear that you know nothing about race dynamics in the south and how especially in the rural south, the legacy of racism is still so persistent that even some very conservative Black voters would not dare vote for the Republican Party. The Black Belt counties will never see a shift as dramatic as the RGV 2020 in one cycle.

You also seem to be completely forgetting the massive gains Democrats are making in suburban Atlanta which will more than make up for some slight slipping in the Black Belt which is not very populated at all.

Sure, people said that about the RGV just before 2020; that Cruz losing Starr by 54 after Trump lost it by 60 was just "low turnout". Also, look at Nungesser's results; clearly black voters are at least open to voting for some Republicans, and it's only a matter of time before they start voting on their ideology. Sure, racism is still a problem in the deep South, but the Republicans are being less and less perceived as racist compared to before.

The Democratic attitude of "the black belt is depopulating; sure, we can take the black belt for granted" certainly doesn't seem to help convince voters to keep voting for them. A 1-2 point gain in the Atlanta suburbs (if at all; I'm not convinced anything other than Henry County will even shift left at all) will be trivial compared to a double digit shift in the rest of the state. The attitude seems like Democrats 2016 attitude in Pennsylvania: "Sure, we are fine if we improve in the Philadelphia area, a 1 to 2 point shift in Luzerne doesn't mean much; the poor will never vote for Republicans because it's against their own interest" before proceeding to lose because they collapsed 20+ points in WWC rural areas.

Also, 2014 is a poor example - Perdue did worse than Trump 2016 in the black belt and did even worse than Romney in places like Wilkinson County (before it shifted double digits right in 2016). The RGV also saw huge shifts right in 2014 before going back left in 2016, but the difference is that like in 2020 for RGV, this time polling supports the theory that the black belt will shift hard right.

Democrats aren't gaining a lot in suburban Atlanta relative to 2020; even Walker, one of the worst candidates Republicans could run who beat up his wife, only did 2 points worse than Trump in the first round (there isn't a runoff in Presidential elections). It's like Harris County in this aspect - it shifted a lot from 2012 to 2016, then stayed stagnant from 2016 to 2020. I can't imagine the issue environment switching from COVID to Dobbs helps Democrats in Georgia, at all.

[Red Wall]

Trump is gonna win Louisiana by 30 points. I wouldn't be surprised if he clears 60% in the deep south

[EastwoodS]

Trump is gonna win Louisiana by 30 points. I wouldn't be surprised if he clears 60% in the deep south

30??

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump is gonna win Louisiana by 30 points. I wouldn't be surprised if he clears 60% in the deep south

No he won’t.

[EastwoodS]

Didn't even come to a runoff in the end. Always expected Landry to win but not quite so suddenly.

Beshear had better not be resting on his laurels already then.

This is an incumbent governors race in Kentucky, I think Beshear will do just fine. Also, Beshear is very nicely funded. No reason or cause for Panic for Beshear. Now I recently predicted Beshear +8, will it be closer than that? maybe. let's also keep in mind that Beshear is not a liberal black man like Wilson was