Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Roll Roons]

Now only NC 2024 remains and Republicans would control the governorships of all the confederate states.

Robinson won the LG race because he was able to skate under the radar so a lot of people checked the box assuming he was a generic R. That won't be the case next year.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

ALL votes are now counted in Louisiana.

https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical

I like how this state manages to count ALL of its votes in just 4 hours, whereas such lazy-as-f**k states like CA take 6-8 weeks to count theirs ...

Anyway, turnout was just 35% of registered voter, a shame. 65% of people not voting for a major office is a disgrace. In the Bavaria state election last week, almost 75% voted for example.

Landry's stunning victory in the first round has been acknowledged on the German Wikipedia's frontpage:

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Hauptseite

Polls were significantly off in this race and Democrats suffered a bloodbath.

66% combined for Republicans (+17% compared to 2019)
28% for Democrats (-23%)
  6% Independents (+6)

Results page (NYT, for free, I am subscriber)

I wonder if the poll failure will have an impact on the Kentucky race in a few weeks: but Governor Beshear seems to be popular enough to fend off Cameron, and he has run a competent campaign and had a good fundraising.

[smoltchanov]

Well, at first look - results were predictable. The only surprise - Landry won outright, but that was mostly because of very weak campaign on part of Wilson. The best Democratic statewide candidate (Granger) got 32% and will lose GE handily..

State legislature: as expected Republicans won Gary Smith district (SD-19), and rather easily. Smith was somewhat conservative-leaning (including pro-life) white with substantial crossover support, yesterday's candidate - relatively liberal Black woman. Feel the difference... Other seats will remain held by party, which held them before, so - +1 Republicans. 2 state Senate run-offs (1 D-D, 1 R-R).

In House - no party change yet, and the only (as i see it) intrigue is in HD-105 i mentioned before. Republican candidate got 40%, incumbent centrist Democrat - 29. But 2 Democrats together got 56%.

18 (if i counted correctly) run-offs, but mostly - intraparty (4 D-D and 9 R-R). Of remaining 1 is D-I and only 4 - normal D-R (but even there serious competition isn't very likely).

P.S. (for illustration) Outgoing Democratic state senator in SD-19 supported Republican candidate yesterday. It really becomes boring with almost all whites (outside, may be, New Orleans and Baton Rouge cities) voting Republican, and almost all Blacks - Democratic. Look at white and Black percentages in a district - and you almost all know result beforehand.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I am genuinely shocked, when was the last time a candidate won outright??

Like I said: worst state the Louisiana Democrats have EVER been in.

To be fair, it's also the only state they've ever been in.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are favs in LA, the test is MS and they are gonna lose KY

Biden is at 48 and Harris is at 43 Approvals

[Dave Hedgehog]

Didn't even come to a runoff in the end. Always expected Landry to win but not quite so suddenly.

Beshear had better not be resting on his laurels already then.

[Spectator]

Didn't even come to a runoff in the end. Always expected Landry to win but not quite so suddenly.

Beshear had better not be resting on his laurels already then.

Kentucky isn’t really reliant on black voters the way Louisiana and Mississippi are. This result really just reaffirms that Mississippi is Likely or even Safe R, but doesn’t tell us much about KY.

[smoltchanov]

Didn't even come to a runoff in the end. Always expected Landry to win but not quite so suddenly.

Beshear had better not be resting on his laurels already then.

Kentucky isn’t really reliant on black voters the way Louisiana and Mississippi are. This result really just reaffirms that Mississippi is Likely or even Safe R, but doesn’t tell us much about KY.

If Black turnout craters in Mississippi like in Louisiana - then sure...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Note blk turnout is 75 not 90 in the N plse stop comparing blk turnout in N v S but Reeves won only by 5 last time and he supposed to win

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1713404346325479532

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Now only NC 2024 remains and Republicans would control the governorships of all the confederate states.

Well, given which party Confederate sympathizers vote for...

[Dave Hedgehog]

Didn't even come to a runoff in the end. Always expected Landry to win but not quite so suddenly.

Beshear had better not be resting on his laurels already then.

Kentucky isn’t really reliant on black voters the way Louisiana and Mississippi are. This result really just reaffirms that Mississippi is Likely or even Safe R, but doesn’t tell us much about KY.

It's hardly the best barometer of overall opinion I know but I checked Louisiana Reddit a few times lately and saw absolutely no excitement/enthusiasm about Wilson on there; saw quite a lot about Nan Whaley in Ohio last year who went on to suffer a similarly crushing loss. That's how I knew this race was lost for Dems from the start. Still, the fact it didn't even go to a runoff is a very worrying sign for Dems and indicates polling way underestimated R's again. Definitely now expecting a double-digit Reeves margin in MS next month.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

As far as abortion is concerned, Louisianans are less pro-life than they used to be:

The poll found 50% of likely voters want to see the law changed to expand a woman’s right to an abortion, while 42% say the law should remain as is. About 8% were undecided. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.

[...]

Its results are generally in line with a statewide poll conducted by LSU this spring, which found 52% of respondents said abortion should be legal in all or most cases and 44% said it should be illegal in all or most cases. The results represented a shift in opinions in a state where voters have long been more conservative than the country on abortion: a 2016 LSU poll found just 40% of residents wanted to legalize abortion while a majority, 55%, said it should remain illegal.

The Democrats didn't even try here.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

[Duke of York]

Didn't even come to a runoff in the end. Always expected Landry to win but not quite so suddenly.

Beshear had better not be resting on his laurels already then.

Kentucky isn’t really reliant on black voters the way Louisiana and Mississippi are. This result really just reaffirms that Mississippi is Likely or even Safe R, but doesn’t tell us much about KY.

It's hardly the best barometer of overall opinion I know but I checked Louisiana Reddit a few times lately and saw absolutely no excitement/enthusiasm about Wilson on there; saw quite a lot about Nan Whaley in Ohio last year who went on to suffer a similarly crushing loss. That's how I knew this race was lost for Dems from the start. Still, the fact it didn't even go to a runoff is a very worrying sign for Dems and indicates polling way underestimated R's again. Definitely now expecting a double-digit Reeves margin in MS next month.

Reddit is not a good indicator of anything.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this isn't at all shocking. This is kind of like FL-GOV last year. Dems didn't even bother trying; Landry raised a ton of money and outspent Wilson like 10:1.

The lack of turnout in NOLA pretty much speaks to this. There was just no effort to GOTV for Dems. Overall turnout for the state was just over 1M, which is extremely low.

[Skill and Chance]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

Yes, this feels like the best explanation given

1.Trump's current polling with black voters
2.The 2022/2023 results

I envision Trump making slight gains in places like inner-city Detroit, but by nowhere near enough to explain Trump's polling among black voters (even if you think it's off, it's still much higher than Trump polled in 2020). Ergo it's likely occurring in rural black counties.

Also, it would be funny because this means that AL-02 is immediately a dummymander, but Democrats might still win the seat in 2024 anyway due to downballot lag (and in 2026 due to Trump midterm).

[DrScholl]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

Yes, this feels like the best explanation given

1.Trump's current polling with black voters
2.The 2022/2023 results

I envision Trump making slight gains in places like inner-city Detroit, but by nowhere near enough to explain Trump's polling among black voters (even if you think it's off, it's still much higher than Trump polled in 2020). Ergo it's likely occurring in rural black counties.

Also, it would be funny because this means that AL-02 is immediately a dummymander, but Democrats might still win the seat in 2024 anyway due to downballot lag (and in 2026 due to Trump midterm).

I wouldn't count on any of this happening. Making predictions on a very low turnout election is silly. But you'll disappear after Trump loses like the trolls for Romney did so...

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

Yes, this feels like the best explanation given

1.Trump's current polling with black voters
2.The 2022/2023 results

I envision Trump making slight gains in places like inner-city Detroit, but by nowhere near enough to explain Trump's polling among black voters (even if you think it's off, it's still much higher than Trump polled in 2020). Ergo it's likely occurring in rural black counties.

Also, it would be funny because this means that AL-02 is immediately a dummymander, but Democrats might still win the seat in 2024 anyway due to downballot lag (and in 2026 due to Trump midterm).

I wouldn't count on any of this happening. Making predictions on a very low turnout election is silly. But you'll disappear after Trump loses like the trolls for Romney did so...

It isn't a one-off. Budd improved significantly on Trump in Eastern North Carolina and even Walker improved on Trump in the black belt of Georgia. We also saw similar effects in Alabama and Misssissippi in 2022. And midterm trends tend to significantly lag Presidential trends.

It's possible Trump loses (ie if Biden somehow flips Florida due to the abortion referendum), but I'm quite confident Trump will win Georgia and North Carolina.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

Yes, this feels like the best explanation given

1.Trump's current polling with black voters
2.The 2022/2023 results

I envision Trump making slight gains in places like inner-city Detroit, but by nowhere near enough to explain Trump's polling among black voters (even if you think it's off, it's still much higher than Trump polled in 2020). Ergo it's likely occurring in rural black counties.

Also, it would be funny because this means that AL-02 is immediately a dummymander, but Democrats might still win the seat in 2024 anyway due to downballot lag (and in 2026 due to Trump midterm).

I wouldn't count on any of this happening. Making predictions on a very low turnout election is silly. But you'll disappear after Trump loses like the trolls for Romney did so...

It isn't a one-off. Budd improved significantly on Trump in Eastern North Carolina and even Walker improved on Trump in the black belt of Georgia. We also saw similar effects in Alabama and Misssissippi in 2022. And midterm trends tend to significantly lag Presidential trends.

It's possible Trump loses (ie if Biden somehow flips Florida due to the abortion referendum), but I'm quite confident Trump will win Georgia and North Carolina.

LoL they had IAN, DESANTIS IS A PRIME EXAMPLE THAT IAN SYMPATHY IS GONE HES A JOKE CANDIDATE LIKE RFK

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Multiple people now calling this for Landry.

an absolute embarrassment for the democratic party. The gop had 10 candidates, the dems only had 2.

In his concession speech, the leading dem should call out the state party by name and should also call out black political organizers in nola and BR for sitting on their asses.

Silence, Republican!

Anyway, this isn’t good, but it’s also not terribly surprising.  Black turnout was quite understandably abysmal, Wilson was basically a C- candidate even grading on a curve for being a sacrificial lamb (even the some dude we’re running for Treasurer has been running a better campaign), Wilson was under-funded and unheralded with no prior elected experience, we had an awful row officer slate as well, and there was always potential Landry would win in the first round.  

That said, I don’t think you can say Louisiana has gone 100% to the dark side (just 90% ) when Edwards just served two terms as Governor and we’ll likely get a second House seat there this cycle.  The situation is very bad, but Louisiana at least has several major urban centers (Baton Rouge, Shreveport,  and New Orleans, as well as Republican metros like Alexandria, Lake Charles, and Monroe where the city proper is plurality or majority AA).  As a result, the floor in Louisiana is pretty solid.

If you want a truly dire situation, take a look at West Virginia (Democrats - including Manchin - are basically going extinct there) or even somewhere like Tennessee or Arkansas.  Even in Alabama, Democrats could only win statewide by the skin of their teeth against a Republican who was widely known to be a pedophile, as well as a lunatic who made his name by proudly disregarding the Constitution.  I’d say Louisiana itself is more like Kentucky regarding the odds Dems face in that it’s not impossible for a strong Democrat to beat a weakened Republican statewide in a major race under the right circumstances (even without a dead girl/live boy-level scandal) and there is a real, consistent Democratic base.  But like KY, it is still a rock-solid Republican, very Trumpy state and while Democrats sometimes have the occasional respectable recruit in a random race, generally the default for any given race is no bench and a sacrificial lamb.

The difference is that the KY Dems haven’t completely given up yet imo whereas the Louisiana Democratic Party is more comparable to the Mississippi Democratic Party’s leadership: incompetent, very lazy, unwilling to do the long-term work to rebuild, and generally content to sit around and wait for a perfect storm while limiting their efforts to their little fiefdoms in the friendliest parts of the state.  

Will this carry over to Cameron or not now, that is the question.

Or does KY defy Louisiana again as per tradition, with 2019 as an outlier, just as 2013 was a break for Virginia?

I would be more worried about all those Biden +8ish districts in Southside VA given LA Dems are losing a Biden +8 HD near New Orleans right now.  Kentucky is a different dynamic entirely, more about persuasion of presidential R’s than turnout.

There was no investment here; I don’t think this tells us anything about Virginia or anywhere else.  All this says is that if Democrats invest nothing in a heavily Republican and very Trumpy state that is exceptionally pro-life, have an incompetent state party, don’t put any effort into GOTV, and the election is on a Saturday with a full statewide slate of sacrificial lambs running weak campaigns that get out-raised by ridiculous margins (Wilson raised less than $300,000 iirc while Landry raised over $9 million) in basically a perfect storm for Republicans in the state then the Republicans in said state will probably have a good night. 

Democrats over-performed in the VA-4 special and, for obvious reasons, I think that is far more relevant to the VA (and probably NC tbh)!seats you’re talking about than anything in Louisiana.

[Skill and Chance]

It would be kind of hilarious if LA-05 and AL-02 finally get redrawn as VRA seats in 2024 only to continue electing Republicans for the decade.

[soundchaser]

If turnout really was 29% in Orleans Parish, that’s all the explanation you need for last night.

[Skill and Chance]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

Trump wins both NC/GA by 5+ points. The entire black belt swings 20 points right.

So a lot like south Texas 2020 but with the black belt?

Yes, this feels like the best explanation given

1.Trump's current polling with black voters
2.The 2022/2023 results

I envision Trump making slight gains in places like inner-city Detroit, but by nowhere near enough to explain Trump's polling among black voters (even if you think it's off, it's still much higher than Trump polled in 2020). Ergo it's likely occurring in rural black counties.

Also, it would be funny because this means that AL-02 is immediately a dummymander, but Democrats might still win the seat in 2024 anyway due to downballot lag (and in 2026 due to Trump midterm).

In a true dummymander, the party seeking to change the map ends up losing more seats than they thought they stood to gain.  For that to happen in AL or LA, Dems would have to actually lose the existing Birmingham and NOLA VRA seats they hold today after the redraw, not just fail to pick up the new ones.  That seems exceedingly unlikely.