Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Skill and Chance]

Will this carry over to Cameron or not now, that is the question.

Or does KY defy Louisiana again as per tradition, with 2019 as an outlier, just as 2013 was a break for Virginia?

I would be more worried about all those Biden +8ish districts in Southside VA given LA Dems are losing a Biden +8 HD near New Orleans right now.  Kentucky is a different dynamic entirely, more about persuasion of presidential R’s than turnout.

Respectfully, this is a "primary" on a saturday in October in a deep red state. It seems foolish to try and translate that to Virginia. Not to mention democrats are actively spending money there, as opposed to these races.

Referring specifically to the black belt part of VA here.  Agree none of what’s happening in LA is comparable to the rest of VA.

Also, are we sure this was about turnout vs. all the pro-life Dems just defecting for good?

[Stuart98]

itt: a lot of people being very wrong

Like I wasn't expecting an outright Landry win either but there was no reason to think this race was remotely competitive.

[Tekken_Guy]

Will this carry over to Cameron or not now, that is the question.

Or does KY defy Louisiana again as per tradition, with 2019 as an outlier, just as 2013 was a break for Virginia?

Kentucky isn’t a Deep South black belt state like Louisiana is, so the factors that worked in Landry’s favor won’t carry over to Cameron.

That's true Tekken but on paper Cameron is a better Candidate than Landry.

No, both are the same tier and Wilson is a way worse candidate than Beshear.

[Ferguson97]

Why is Louisiana so pro-life, even compared to other conservative states?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well at least AG/Sec. State/Treasurer went to a runoff. Still boring lol

[Birdish]

Will this carry over to Cameron or not now, that is the question.

Or does KY defy Louisiana again as per tradition, with 2019 as an outlier, just as 2013 was a break for Virginia?

I would be more worried about all those Biden +8ish districts in Southside VA given LA Dems are losing a Biden +8 HD near New Orleans right now.  Kentucky is a different dynamic entirely, more about persuasion of presidential R’s than turnout.

Respectfully, this is a "primary" on a saturday in October in a deep red state. It seems foolish to try and translate that to Virginia. Not to mention democrats are actively spending money there, as opposed to these races.

Referring specifically to the black belt part of VA here.  Agree none of what’s happening in LA is comparable to the rest of VA.

Also, are we sure this was about turnout vs. all the pro-life Dems just defecting for good?

Turnout does seem very bad. Bel Edwards easily netted 80k from New Orleans in 2019 in the primary. Wilson is barely going to get 40k.

[Stuart98]

Why is Louisiana so pro-life, even compared to other conservative states?

Think a big part of it is that it's got a lot more conservative catholics rather than other deep south states.

[Matty]

Why is Louisiana so pro-life, even compared to other conservative states?

Catholicism

[soundchaser]

itt: a lot of people being very wrong

Like I wasn't expecting an outright Landry win either but there was no reason to think this race was remotely competitive.

Is anyone here saying it was competitive? It just turned out worse than even the expectations.

[Skill and Chance]

Why is Louisiana so pro-life, even compared to other conservative states?

Think a big part of it is that it's filled with conservative catholics rather than protestants.

Yes, Catholic and didn’t secularize after WWII like the NE.  Even the Dem majority leader in the state senate sponsored the nothing in the state constitution can provide a right to abortion amendment that passed in 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Now, I haven't paid that much attention to this race, but did Wilson run heavily on repeoductive rights? If so, I'm not particularly surprised to see this result. If a national "yes" or "no" referendum were to take place whether to ban abortion or not, I would still expect the Deep South states and maybe the Mormon triangle to be holdouts for banning it.

[soundchaser]

Now, I haven't paid that much attention to this race, but did Wilson run heavily on repeoductive rights? If so, I'm not particularly surprised to see this result. If a national "yes" or "no" referendum were to take place whether to ban abortion or not, I would still expect the Deep South states and maybe the Mormon triangle to be holdouts for banning it.

I wouldn’t say “heavily,” but he was vocally pro-choice.

[Skill and Chance]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

[Benjamin Frank]

Seeing some chatter on X that LSU having a home game tonight may have dampened dem and black turnout in EBR

That’s a 100+k people that potentially did not vote due to tailgating all day plus being at game tonight

Long-standing culture of early voting in LA so not buying this.

E-Day turnout WAS bad. Early voting turnout was…also bad! A failure on many counts.

How does it compare to previously? It's still nearly an average of 200,000 votes per Congressional district, which is usually pretty good for a primary in most states (of course, this is a different type of primary than in most states, but still.)

Also, congratulations to Louisiana for counting virtually all the ballots in just three hours.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hope Presley but they kept showing us a Runoff scenario

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Seeing some chatter on X that LSU having a home game tonight may have dampened dem and black turnout in EBR

That’s a 100+k people that potentially did not vote due to tailgating all day plus being at game tonight

Long-standing culture of early voting in LA so not buying this.

E-Day turnout WAS bad. Early voting turnout was…also bad! A failure on many counts.

How does it compare to previously? It's still nearly an average of 200,000 votes per Congressional district, which is usually pretty good for a primary in most states (of course, this is a different type of primary than in most states, but still.)

Also, congratulations to Louisiana for counting virtually all the ballots in just three hours.

Much worse than 2019; I think 2019 had 1.34M turnout while 2023 has only 1.06M.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance it actually votes to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

L Deegan won and we won WI by 11 and 5 straight PA Specials and Casey is up by 8 we will win in 24 the country is moving leftward not right

[Skill and Chance]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Florida is interesting because white voters are known for being relatively secular there, but it also has plenty of people who could fall under my 2nd category in the Hispanic community.  Not quite ready to say Florida left of Georgia. 

[Stuart98]

itt: a lot of people being very wrong

Like I wasn't expecting an outright Landry win either but there was no reason to think this race was remotely competitive.

Is anyone here saying it was competitive? It just turned out worse than even the expectations.

>60% of ratings for this were something other than safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users try to extrapolate what's this means what about the Edays Rs lost wow they finally won one a special Eday and MS G is still a Tossup

Biden or Ds didn't come save Wilson

[soundchaser]

itt: a lot of people being very wrong

Like I wasn't expecting an outright Landry win either but there was no reason to think this race was remotely competitive.

Is anyone here saying it was competitive? It just turned out worse than even the expectations.

>60% of ratings for this were something other than safe R.

I voted Likely R AGES ago. Had I voted more recently, it would have been Safe. I think that's probably the case for a few folks.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

Lol.

Also, what is your definition of "not competitive at all"?

[Duke of York]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

This is not happening.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Now only NC 2024 remains and Republicans would control the governorships of all the confederate states.