Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[2016]

John Couvillon, Louisiana Guru gives Landry a 40 % Chance winning outright!

[soundchaser]

This state’s Democratic Party is probably in the worst shape it’s been…ever? Not sure what can be done to turn things around at this point. We’ve got absolutely no bench.

Why is your state party so much worse than other dem state parties at getting out the black vote?

Piss poor canvassing efforts, a serious lack of funding, a much more pro-life contingent of black voters than in other southern states. Probably more on top of that, but those feel like the big issues.

[BigZuck08]

Landry just hit over 50% with 55% of the estimated vote.

Landry winning outright may be a serious possibility now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said it's wave insurance seats that means upset happens like Niners def Chiefs and Warriors def Nuggets

[soundchaser]

Landry just hit over 50% with 55% of the estimated vote.

Landry winning outright may be a serious possibility now.

Given where the remaining vote’s out, I still don’t see it. But it’s not *impossible* depending on turnout in Orleans.

[BigZuck08]

Landry just hit over 50% with 55% of the estimated vote.

Landry winning outright may be a serious possibility now.

Given where the remaining vote’s out, I still don’t see it. But it’s not *impossible* depending on turnout in Orleans.

Well at the time I'm posting this, according to DDHQ, 67% of the estimated vote is in and Landry is still sitting at 51%. I've heard about LA Dems having a hard time getting the black vote out to vote early, though I'm not sure if this will translate into the actual primary. If it does, Landry is probably winning outright unless Landry collapses with white voters.

But we shall see what happens.

[soundchaser]

^ Over half of the precincts in Orleans aren’t reporting E-Day vote yet. I trust Couvillon, and things are looking more ominous as the night goes on (although this was always a foregone conclusion), but I wouldn’t write anything in stone yet.

[2016]

John Couvillon now gives Landry a 49 % winning outright!

[BigZuck08]

This is looking better and better for Landry, though don't count Wilson out as Orleans Parish still only has 39% of votes counted.

Also I have made my decision and I am endorsing Landry.

[BigZuck08]

Landry has taken the lead in St. Helena and East Feliciana parishes.

[BigZuck08]

At this point I'm giving Landry a 55% chance of winning outright.

[Minnesota Mike]

Louisiana really has gone over to the Dark Side. Doesn't matter if it's tonight or in a few weeks it's a Republican sweep by a massive margin.

[2016]

This is looking better and better for Landry, though don't count Wilson out as Orleans Parish still only has 39% of votes counted.

Also I have made my decision and I am endorsing Landry.

There wasn't a single Poll that had Landry even close what he has now. Most of them had him between 42-44 %.

[BigZuck08]

This is looking better and better for Landry, though don't count Wilson out as Orleans Parish still only has 39% of votes counted.

Also I have made my decision and I am endorsing Landry.

There wasn't a single Poll that had Landry even close what he has now. Most of them had him between 42-44 %.

Yeah. I originally projected a Landry vs. Wilson runoff (with Landry handily winning that) but now I'm projecting Landry winning outright. We seem to have underestimated Landry.....

[soundchaser]

This is looking better and better for Landry, though don't count Wilson out as Orleans Parish still only has 39% of votes counted.

Also I have made my decision and I am endorsing Landry.

There wasn't a single Poll that had Landry even close what he has now. Most of them had him between 42-44 %.

Tonight is a turnout failure. Landry’s support isn’t as solid as it looks — we’re just looking at ~35% turnout.

[2016]

This is looking better and better for Landry, though don't count Wilson out as Orleans Parish still only has 39% of votes counted.

Also I have made my decision and I am endorsing Landry.

There wasn't a single Poll that had Landry even close what he has now. Most of them had him between 42-44 %.

Yeah. I originally projected a Landry vs. Wilson runoff (with Landry handily winning that) but now I'm projecting Landry winning outright. We seem to have underestimated Landry.....

Or Trump Voters in ruby red LA?

[BigZuck08]

This is looking better and better for Landry, though don't count Wilson out as Orleans Parish still only has 39% of votes counted.

Also I have made my decision and I am endorsing Landry.

There wasn't a single Poll that had Landry even close what he has now. Most of them had him between 42-44 %.

Yeah. I originally projected a Landry vs. Wilson runoff (with Landry handily winning that) but now I'm projecting Landry winning outright. We seem to have underestimated Landry.....

Or Trump Voters in ruby red LA?

Possibly. Or it could also be what soundchaser said, a turnout crash, particularly amongst African Americans.

[soundchaser]

I know I’m a broken record, but I still don’t think this race is totally over. (Although it’s clear it will be in a few weeks.) Need to see more of Orleans come in to know for sure.

[soundchaser]

Well, Couvillon has called it. Like I said, I trust him. Disappointing.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Louisiana really has gone over to the Dark Side. Doesn't matter if it's tonight or in a few weeks it's a Republican sweep by a massive margin.

Duh. It's one of the few states where pro-life polls ahead of Trump's 2020 margins. It will be one of the states that swings hard right in 2024 for sure.

[soundchaser]

Louisiana really has gone over to the Dark Side. Doesn't matter if it's tonight or in a few weeks it's a Republican sweep by a massive margin.

Duh. It's one of the few states where pro-life polls ahead of Trump's 2020 margins. It will be one of the states that swings hard right in 2024 for sure.

Has anybody suggested yet that Trump’s inflated popular vote margin could come entirely out of LA?

[BigZuck08]

BREAKING: Jeff Landry has officially won outright.

[Zedonathin2020]

I am genuinely shocked, when was the last time a candidate won outright??

[BigZuck08]

I am genuinely shocked, when was the last time a candidate won outright??

For the Louisiana governorship, 2011 when Bobby Jindal won re-election in a landslide.

[soundchaser]

I am genuinely shocked, when was the last time a candidate won outright??

Like I said: worst state the Louisiana Democrats have EVER been in.