Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[gerritcole]

John Neely Kennedy will be the next governor imo.

I thinkhe retires fromhis senate seat in 2022 and gets replaced in the Senate by Jeff Landry.

Edwin Edwards if he wants it

[Real Texan Politics]

John Neely Kennedy will be the next governor imo.

I thinkhe retires fromhis senate seat in 2022 and gets replaced in the Senate by Jeff Landry.

Edwin Edwards if he wants it

He can't. Unless he receives a full pardon, he cannot seek the governorship until 15 years have passed since the end of his prison sentence, which would be in 2027 when he is 100 years old.

Face it, we're not getting the epic wizard vs lizard rematch we've all been waiting for. 

[Flyersfan232]

r/r runoff

[Kingpoleon]

If JBE really wants to, he could back Dardenne in 2023 so that his successor is reasonably close to being like him.

[Samof94]

I'd say the only thing that would make this safe D is if David Duke runs for governor again. Landrieu probably wins in a landslide and he probably wins Calcasieu and St Tammany parishes as well (which Edwin Edwards did against Duke in 1991).

Even David Duke would win Louisiana with a Democrat in the Oval Office.

Nowadays the ad campaign would probably be "Vote for the Klansman: it's important (he's a PATRIOT and supports the 2A and STRONG BORDERS)"

Duke is still really hated in Louisiana and I think the Klan aspect would be too bitter a pill to swallow for a critical mass, but it would certainly be much closer than 91.

David Vitter lost by double digits despite a Democrat as the president.

The only people Duke could maybe beat are Gary Landrieu or Bill Jefferson.

He has Roy Moore issues.

[Orwell]

We need to recruit Ed Orgeron and Joe Burrow to run!!!

[smoltchanov]

As i said many times - JBE and, probably, Beshear on Democratic side, and Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott - on Republican, are examples of "the last of Mohicans". After them - US elections will become even more predictable and boring... They already are in 98% of cases, they will - in 99.9%. Only fundamental change in party system can help to avoid such situation...

[Real Texan Politics]

We need to recruit Ed Orgeron and Joe Burrow to run!!!

Burrow I ain't so sure about. I know he's a celebrity in Louisiana but he plays in Cincinnati right now (and plus he's from Iowa).

Now Orgeron, I have extreme doubts about it as I'm sure he loves his job as LSU coach and doesn't want to leave that position anytime soon (and it would probably harm his reputation as "Coach O" if he did), though he may be slightly more likely than Burrow. Though he may be more of an independent politically? He endorsed JBE in 2019 and Trump in 2020 so I'm not sure how it'd help him in a gubernatorial run.

To summarize it all though, neither of them are running for ANY political office anytime soon.

[Orwell]

We need to recruit Ed Orgeron and Joe Burrow to run!!!

Burrow I ain't so sure about. I know he's a celebrity in Louisiana but he plays in Cincinnati right now (and plus he's from Iowa).

Now Orgeron, I have extreme doubts about it as I'm sure he loves his job as LSU coach and doesn't want to leave that position anytime soon (and it would probably harm his reputation as "Coach O" if he did), though he may be slightly more likely than Burrow. Though he may be more of an independent politically? He endorsed JBE in 2019 and Trump in 2020 so I'm not sure how it'd help him in a gubernatorial run.

To summarize it all though, neither of them are running for ANY political office anytime soon.

To clarify I’m joking. And Burrow is from Ohio not Iowa.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think we'll have a Democrat in the runoff, New Orleans is just too influential in Louisiana politics for a R/R runoff.

That said, unless Biden's popularity shoots way up, or it's clear by election day 2023 he isn't running for reelection, any Democrat will be an underdog.

[Real Texan Politics]

We need to recruit Ed Orgeron and Joe Burrow to run!!!

Burrow I ain't so sure about. I know he's a celebrity in Louisiana but he plays in Cincinnati right now (and plus he's from Iowa).

Now Orgeron, I have extreme doubts about it as I'm sure he loves his job as LSU coach and doesn't want to leave that position anytime soon (and it would probably harm his reputation as "Coach O" if he did), though he may be slightly more likely than Burrow. Though he may be more of an independent politically? He endorsed JBE in 2019 and Trump in 2020 so I'm not sure how it'd help him in a gubernatorial run.

To summarize it all though, neither of them are running for ANY political office anytime soon.

To clarify I’m joking. And Burrow is from Ohio not Iowa.

Well he was born in Iowa but I guess he did spend most of his life in Ohio.

[Real Texan Politics]

Honestly wonder if we may see Gary Chambers Jr. jump into this race? Obviously he won't win, but it'd still be interesting to see.

[Vespucci]

As i said many times - JBE and, probably, Beshear on Democratic side, and Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott - on Republican, are examples of "the last of Mohicans". After them - US elections will become even more predictable and boring... They already are in 98% of cases, they will - in 99.9%. Only fundamental change in party system can help to avoid such situation...

I don't think the moderate Rs on the East Coast will die out, given how Scott/Baker/Hogan have all won landslide victories during D waves and presidential years. Red states do seem to be getting redder on the state level though.

[Chips]

Toss-up. Depends on nominees. Slight GOP edge.

[smoltchanov]

As i said many times - JBE and, probably, Beshear on Democratic side, and Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott - on Republican, are examples of "the last of Mohicans". After them - US elections will become even more predictable and boring... They already are in 98% of cases, they will - in 99.9%. Only fundamental change in party system can help to avoid such situation...

I don't think the moderate Rs on the East Coast will die out, given how Scott/Baker/Hogan have all won landslide victories during D waves and presidential years. Red states do seem to be getting redder on the state level though.

Well - yes and no, IMHO. Moderate Rs on the East coast need to win primaries first. And in situation where (even on the East Coast) most of party organizations are dominated by Trumpists, and many "activists", who dominate primaries, are Trumpists too, that may become serious problem. In 2018 both Baker and Scott had conservative primary opponents, who, while having no chances in GE, and being much "lower class" politicians in general, were, nevertheless, able to get about 1/3 of primary vote simply by being "real conservatives". BTW - the same may gradually happen with Democrats in red staes: only"diehard activists" will care about Democratic primaries, most liberal (and having no chances in GE) candidates - nominated, and Republicans - elected.

[Real Texan Politics]

We need to recruit Ed Orgeron and Joe Burrow to run!!!

Burrow I ain't so sure about. I know he's a celebrity in Louisiana but he plays in Cincinnati right now (and plus he's from Iowa).

Now Orgeron, I have extreme doubts about it as I'm sure he loves his job as LSU coach and doesn't want to leave that position anytime soon (and it would probably harm his reputation as "Coach O" if he did), though he may be slightly more likely than Burrow. Though he may be more of an independent politically? He endorsed JBE in 2019 and Trump in 2020 so I'm not sure how it'd help him in a gubernatorial run.

To summarize it all though, neither of them are running for ANY political office anytime soon.

Update: According to wikipedia, Orgeron is now listed as a potential republican candidate, as is Steve Scalise. I don't expect either of them to run though.

Jeff Landry is now listed in the "publicly expressed interest" part, and has the most outside sources by his name. Seems very likely he could end up being the nominee and eventual winner, as Kennedy will likely decline to run in order to stay in the senate, hopefully as majority leader?

P.S., bump.

[Zendstrummer]

I wonder if Ralph Abraham will run again? He probably would have beat JBE last time if he had finished ahead of Rispone. I could also see Jeff Landry easily win.

[MT Treasurer]

Toss-up. Depends on nominees. Slight GOP edge.

Er, no...

this is an even safer flip than MA-GOV 2022/MD-GOV 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Toss-up. Depends on nominees. Slight GOP edge.

Er, no...

this is an even safer flip than MA-GOV 2022/MD-GOV 2022

You don't realize that LA Senate is a battlefield state now, because Kennedy has to get to 50, the game plan is win LA Sen and then Gov race, it's not the polls what's happening now in Jan it's the end result polls

That's why I have endorsed Chambers, like Warnock he can win a runoff and FL, OH and NC aren't over since Rs are only leading by 4 pts well within margin of error

Rs think they're safe Rubio and DeSantis only leading by 4 pts

[Real Texan Politics]

Toss-up. Depends on nominees. Slight GOP edge.

Er, no...

this is an even safer flip than MA-GOV 2022/MD-GOV 2022

You don't realize that LA Senate is a battlefield state now, because Kennedy has to get to 50, the game plan is win LA Sen and then Gov race, it's not the polls what's happening now in Jan it's the end result polls

That's why I have endorsed Chambers, like Warnock he can win a runoff and FL, OH and NC aren't over since Rs are only leading by 4 pts well within margin of error

Rs think they're safe Rubio and DeSantis only leading by 4 pts

Kennedy's already got 50, and he's gonna pass 60.

Safe R no matter how much #resist money Grifter Chambers gets.

Governors race is safe R too even if Chambers decides to go for governor after getting his butt handed to him in the senate race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Toss-up. Depends on nominees. Slight GOP edge.

Er, no...

this is an even safer flip than MA-GOV 2022/MD-GOV 2022

You don't realize that LA Senate is a battlefield state now, because Kennedy has to get to 50, the game plan is win LA Sen and then Gov race, it's not the polls what's happening now in Jan it's the end result polls

That's why I have endorsed Chambers, like Warnock he can win a runoff and FL, OH and NC aren't over since Rs are only leading by 4 pts well within margin of error

Rs think they're safe Rubio and DeSantis only leading by 4 pts

Kennedy's already got 50, and he's gonna pass 60.

Safe R no matter how much #resist money Grifter Chambers gets.

Governors race is safe R too even if Chambers decides to go for governor after getting his butt handed to him in the senate race.

D's just put made L A a battleground state there is no poll that shows Kennedy at 50 percent

[Real Texan Politics]

Toss-up. Depends on nominees. Slight GOP edge.

Er, no...

this is an even safer flip than MA-GOV 2022/MD-GOV 2022

You don't realize that LA Senate is a battlefield state now, because Kennedy has to get to 50, the game plan is win LA Sen and then Gov race, it's not the polls what's happening now in Jan it's the end result polls

That's why I have endorsed Chambers, like Warnock he can win a runoff and FL, OH and NC aren't over since Rs are only leading by 4 pts well within margin of error

Rs think they're safe Rubio and DeSantis only leading by 4 pts

Kennedy's already got 50, and he's gonna pass 60.

Safe R no matter how much #resist money Grifter Chambers gets.

Governors race is safe R too even if Chambers decides to go for governor after getting his butt handed to him in the senate race.

D's just put made L A a battleground state there is no poll that shows Kennedy at 50 percent

What polls? And if they really made Louisiana a battleground priority then the party is ran by idiots.

[smoltchanov]

Toss-up. Depends on nominees. Slight GOP edge.

Er, no...

this is an even safer flip than MA-GOV 2022/MD-GOV 2022

Not much safer, but at least - on par (may be -slighjtly more safe). Even much more conservative candidate (at least Blanco-level) wouldn't save party now, and "progressive" (especially - "social progressive") as a statewide candidate in this state is a mockery pf highest order...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gimme a break safe R LA it's a Democratic state in local elections and Kennedy can still lose in a Runoff and we win the Gov race in 2023 in KY as well, as you know very well states don't vote automatically for Prez and local elections

[Real Texan Politics]

John Neely Kennedy will be the next governor imo.

I thinkhe retires fromhis senate seat in 2022 and gets replaced in the Senate by Jeff Landry.

Edwin Edwards if he wants it

He can't. Unless he receives a full pardon, he cannot seek the governorship until 15 years have passed since the end of his prison sentence, which would be in 2027 when he is 100 years old.

Face it, we're not getting the epic wizard vs lizard rematch we've all been waiting for.  

Oh and I guess I should also add that he’s dead now so…

Gimme a break safe R LA it's a Democratic state in local elections and Kennedy can still lose in a Runoff and we win the Gov race in 2023 in KY as well, as you know very well states don't vote automatically for Prez and local elections

A liberal democrat like Chambers (who’s almost certain to lose this year) is NOT winning a gubernatorial race in Louisiana, especially when Louisiana voted for Trump by nearly 20% both elections. JBE was a centrist democrat that won his first election in 2015 after the previous governor was deeply unpopular, and barely held on in 2019 due to the national environment. Had the 2019 election taken place in 2020 instead, JBE would’ve went down by a lot.

Also remember that most democrats outside of Shreveport, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans are ancestral democrats who never bothered to switch to the GOP. Sure they may vote for democrat small town mayors but I guarantee the democrat mayors in these small towns aren’t advocating for very liberal policies. I have very full confidence that the 2023 gubernatorial election is automatically safe R if it ends up between Chambers and literally any republican. And remember JBE is term-limited which basically guarantees that Louisiana will be an R flip.