Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[smoltchanov]

Any possibility Shawn Wilson doesn't make the runoff?

Very unlikely.

[soundchaser]

Any possibility Shawn Wilson doesn't make the runoff?

Not gonna happen. The Republican vote is almost always split enough to get a Dem into the top 2 and keep everyone under 50.

[henster]

LA is one of the few southern states where veto override isn't a simple majority but 2/3rds so a Dem governor can really have an impact. Yet Dems are spending more $$ is KY/MS where the Governor's veto is pretty much meaningless. I think LA is winnable with the right investment at least to the level Beshear is getting.

[wbrocks67]

LA is one of the few southern states where veto override isn't a simple majority but 2/3rds so a Dem governor can really have an impact. Yet Dems are spending more $$ is KY/MS where the Governor's veto is pretty much meaningless. I think LA is winnable with the right investment at least to the level Beshear is getting.

Honestly, MS spending seems to be little too. I get the DGA investing heavily in Beshear for incumbency and obvious reasons, but it is frustrating that MS/LA are getting barely anything.

[Spectator]

LA is one of the few southern states where veto override isn't a simple majority but 2/3rds so a Dem governor can really have an impact. Yet Dems are spending more $$ is KY/MS where the Governor's veto is pretty much meaningless. I think LA is winnable with the right investment at least to the level Beshear is getting.

Honestly, MS spending seems to be little too. I get the DGA investing heavily in Beshear for incumbency and obvious reasons, but it is frustrating that MS/LA are getting barely anything.

Why bother investing in a lost cause (which Louisiana is, whether people want to admit it or not--Mississippi is arguably not) when there are expensive races next year in North Carolina and New Hampshire on the horizon?

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, it seems that Wilson conducts very weak campaign. Of course, being essentially the only one known Democratic candidate will get him enough votes to get into runoff, but that's essentially all. Even worse - Democrats have almost no bench in the state: their only serious (but he will lose too) candidate for row offices is, probably, Dustin Granger for Treasurer. They are lucky, that they can't lose seriously in state legislative races, but it's only because they hit the bottom already. As i wrote couple of month ago   - there is only one state Senate district (SD-19), which they can (and most likely - will) lose today, and, most likely, only one (HD-105) which they theoretically can lose too. That's all. But at the same time they have about zero chances to gain anything. Sorry sight. Not only really conservative Thompson, but relatively moderate LaCombe (a very partisan Democrat in recent past, who was a participant in some anti-Republican suites) decided to run this year as Republicans. No one wants to be loser.... Some parish presidents dropped the Democratic affiliation this year too. I don't see any serious chances for Democrats in near future

[Benjamin Frank]

Is there any Republican running who would be palatable to Democratic voters? It seems the only way Demcratic voters could defeat Jeff Landry in the runoff is to back a different Republican.

[2016]

Any Results Pages available?

[smoltchanov]

Is there any Republican running who would be palatable to Democratic voters? It seems the only way Demcratic voters could defeat Jeff Landry in the runoff is to back a different Republican.

If you mean governor election - no. Wilson is essentially guaranteed one slot, Landry - another. It's not difficult to predict who will win runoff. Democrats were blessed with JBE (and Vitter scandal) for 8 years, but - it comes to an end. Even in Mississippi chances are better (though - not by much).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blks in LA are totally different than blks in MI, PA and W*, we are very liberal in N and Conserv in S, that's why it's 90 percentage pts blk in A and 90 in N and the polls still thinks Biden is getting not 90 in MI, PA and WI no

[2016]

Blks in LA are totally different than blks in MI, PA and W*, we are very liberal in N and Conserv in S, that's why it's 90 percentage pts blk in A and 90 in N and the polls still thinks Biden is getting not 90 in MI, PA and WI no

LOL, what does this Post have to do with the Louisiana Election? Bottom Line: Democrats have not won a meaningful Race in LA since in 2008 when Mary Landrieu got re-elected. Vitter was under Scandals in 2015, that's why John Bel Edwards won.

[Mr. Smith]

Blks in LA are totally different than blks in MI, PA and W*, we are very liberal in N and Conserv in S, that's why it's 90 percentage pts blk in A and 90 in N and the polls still thinks Biden is getting not 90 in MI, PA and WI no

LOL, what does this Post have to do with the Louisiana Election? Bottom Line: Democrats have not won a meaningful Race in LA since in 2008 when Mary Landrieu got re-elected. Vitter was under Scandals in 2015, that's why John Bel Edwards won.

Vitter won with those scandals in 2010 too.

[2016]

Blks in LA are totally different than blks in MI, PA and W*, we are very liberal in N and Conserv in S, that's why it's 90 percentage pts blk in A and 90 in N and the polls still thinks Biden is getting not 90 in MI, PA and WI no

LOL, what does this Post have to do with the Louisiana Election? Bottom Line: Democrats have not won a meaningful Race in LA since in 2008 when Mary Landrieu got re-elected. Vitter was under Scandals in 2015, that's why John Bel Edwards won.

Vitter won with those scandals in 2010 too.

After the Runoff Election in November Democrats will be back to square one with the State having a Republican Governor and 2 Republican Senators + all Republican Row Offices.

I am saying this only because I consistently hear this garbarge Media Talk that Democrats are making inroads in the South. Except for Georgia they aren't!

[2016]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/10/14/us/elections/results-louisiana.html

Landry needs 47 % of the Early Vote to avoid a Runoff!

[soundchaser]

None of Orleans is in yet — feeling pretty confident this is going to a runoff.

[Benjamin Frank]

Secretary of State website results
https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/static/2023-10-14/resultsRace/Statewide

[2016]

John Couvillon says his Model currently has Landry 48 / Wilson 29.

[Benjamin Frank]

None of Orleans is in yet — feeling pretty confident this is going to a runoff.

Will Landry win outright? Parish the thought.

[2016]

New Orleans EV is now IN and puts Landry down to 47 %.

That being said E-Day Vote screws more Republican. This could be close.

[soundchaser]

None of Orleans is in yet — feeling pretty confident this is going to a runoff.

Will Landry win outright? Parish the thought.

No, but it’ll be closer than it should. Wilson has run a pretty poor campaign, and the establishment all coalesced behind Landry in a way I didn’t expect.

Keep the state’s librarians in your thoughts.

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1713369915200053658



Black turnout looks like a dumpster fire, and the margins themselves look a bit yucky too

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1713372453991329975

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1713373351681388891

[soundchaser]

This state’s Democratic Party is probably in the worst shape it’s been…ever? Not sure what can be done to turn things around at this point. We’ve got absolutely no bench.

[Matty]

This state’s Democratic Party is probably in the worst shape it’s been…ever? Not sure what can be done to turn things around at this point. We’ve got absolutely no bench.

Why is your state party so much worse than other dem state parties at getting out the black vote?