Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[gerritcole]

Has anyone brought up the possibility of two Democrats sneaking into the top 2 with all these Republicans running?

no because it's not going to happen

Landry will not be well liked by polite society but he'll be very formidable. He may even get 50%+1 and second place won't matter

By polite society do you mean Lib coastal elites or gop donor class/upper crust in LA

[Duke of York]

https://www.wdsu.com/article/louisiana-governor-sharon-hewitt-campaign/42484060

Senate Majority leader Sharon Hewitt announces campaign for governor

What are her chances?

[Spectakle]

What are her chances?

Unsure, but my guess is she splits the anti-Landry GOP vote with Schroder.

[patzer]

Has anyone brought up the possibility of two Democrats sneaking into the top 2 with all these Republicans running?

I think a Washington 2016 Treasurer situation has only ever penalised Dems, can't think of a reverse situation.

California’s 4th state senate district election, 2022. The two Dems combined only received 41% of the primary vote to the six Republicans’s 59%...

[Duke of York]

What are her chances?

Unsure, but my guess is she splits the anti-Landry GOP vote with Schroder.

so you think she won't make it to the runoff? I doubt anyone wins outright.

[Spectakle]

What are her chances?

Unsure, but my guess is she splits the anti-Landry GOP vote with Schroder.

so you think she won't make it to the runoff? I doubt anyone wins outright.

As long as the Dems stay united behind Shawn Wilson, it’s basically certain that the runoff will be between Wilson and Landry. Landry just has too much GOP support with the full backing and fundraising of the state party.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I can't see anyone beating Landry.

[smoltchanov]

I can't see anyone beating Landry.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/LaPoliticsNow/status/1616550321630715905

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D if she runs

[Duke of York]

Lean D if she runs

Who are you referring to?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Katie Bernhardt it's on politics1 she is considering

[Duke of York]

Why would it be lean D if she runs?

[Spectator]

Dems only chance in hell of retaining this was/is if a clown car of Republicans run and split the vote and two Dems sneak into top 2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know it's a Lean R race but users on this site believes that in order for D's to win red states you have to win the PVI by 10, but in this Environment no one wins the PVI by 10 the D's lost the H but kept the S and most Govs we won the PVI but it was under 50 percent, if the D's win over 50 percent all bets are off on red states and Laura Kelly won an R 22 state.

There was a poll that had Shawn Wilson tied with Landry RS arent running away with these races Reeves is only up 4, that's the same margin had over Beshear and Beshear won it was 48/44 Bevin

Lake, Walker, Oz, and Laxalt were all up 4 and on Eday they lost

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems only chance in hell of retaining this was/is if a clown car of Republicans run and split the vote and two Dems sneak into top 2

Did you see the poll on MS and LA Reeves plus 4 and Landry tied with Wilson, guess what Bevin margin was over Beshear 48/44 before Eday on 2019 it's not a Lean D race but it's an upset, the only reason why you was right on Ryan and Vance, DeWine won by 30 he won by 3 in 2018 and Brown won it's only Feb it's not Aug yet, Brown is fav in 24 because DeWine isn't on the ballot Cook has OH Lean D

The compiled map was wrong and they made a ratings map not a predicted.map as I keep telling users our predictions aren't ratings

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why would it be lean D if she runs?

It's Olawakandi.

[Duke of York]

Why would it be lean D if she runs?

It's Olawakandi.

who?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.theadvertiser.com/story/news/2023/01/23/louisiana-democrat-katie-bernhardt-blasts-way-into-governor-race-with-shotgun-video/69831740007/

Katie Bernhardt launches bid for GOV

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Why would it be lean D if she runs?

It's Olawakandi.

who?

Silence heretic

[smoltchanov]

So most everyone is in agreement that Republicans will claim the governor's mansion.  Can they finally win a veto-proof majority in the Louisiana House? They fell short by only a couple of seats last time.  Here is the current breakdown in the chamber:

Republicans: 68
Democrats: 33
independents: 3
vacancies: 1

https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana_State_Legislature

Or will they get that magic 70 as a result of redistricting alone?

Both are possible. AFAIK - redistricting strengthened Republican positions in legislature somewhat. In addition - usually, Republicns can count on at least 2 (sometimes - all 3)  Indies (one of which is a former conservative-leaning Democrat from conservative district), and on Francis Thompson - really conservative Democrat from North-East of the state, who was so well known (and popular) in his district, that Republicans didn't run a candidate against him in 2019, despite district being 70+% Trump... If (what's likely) Thompson retires in 2023 (he will be 82) - district will surely elect even more conservative republican. So - "yes" is very likely..

Checked the numbers again, and they are only down by 1 now:

Republicans: 69
Democrats: 33
independents: 2
vacant: 1

Malinda White switched from Indie (and Democrat - before) to Republican in anticipation for possible race for parish President. Typical evolution of white conservatively-leaning Democrats. Former governor Blanco daughter is running (AFAIK) for Lafayette mayor as a Republican. Soon Democratic party in Louisiana may become as "Black party" as it is in Alabama (1 white state Senator and couple of white state Representatives, probably - from majority Black districts)....

[Timberland]

Any chance of a top two dem runoff?

Or a top two gop runoff?

[smoltchanov]

Any chance of a top two dem runoff?

Or a top two gop runoff?

First - almost mpossible. Requires > 10 Republican candidates, of which, say, 5-6 are serious. Second - quite possible, but will depend on final candidate's list.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nothing to see here donate to Brad Presley cuz of Elvis he can win he is only down 4, once JBE stepped down there was no chance of a D Gov

[ProgressiveModerate]

Serious question; how competent does the Louisiana State Dem party seem to be?

They held on to crossover appeal at the governor and legislative level for quite a while, but at this point it's basically fully eroded in the legislature.

Louisiana Black voters seem to have pretty poor turnout and this has been an issue across multiple cycles. Bel-Aire actually underrun Biden in some parts of rural Northern Louisiana because of low black turnout, even as he did better with whites.

The issue for Louisiana Dems is in order to win the state, White liberal and Black voters alone aren't enough on their own, but with solid turnout can get you pretty close. However, appealing to white Conservatives takes a lot of effort that is then diverted from turnout of Ds core base.