How would the losers of the 2012 senate elections do in 2018?

[bagelman]

2018 was a so-called blue wave that saw R state Democrats lose. How would losers of the 2012 Senate elections do in such a year?

[bee33]

I'll do all within 10%.

North Dakota: Safe R with Rick Berg

Nevada: Likely D with Shelly Berkely

Arizona: Likely D with Richard Carmona

Montana: Likely R with Denny Rehberg

Wisconsin: Lean D with Tommy Thompson. It would probably correlate strongly with the governor election, like FL in OTL.

New Mexico: Even if Gary Johnson doesn't run, it would still be a safe D flip.

Indiana: If Mourdock's gaffe didn't hurt him in 2012, I don't think it would hurt him in 2018. The democrats would spend money here but I think Mourdock still win. Lean R.

Virginia: Likely D flip (just a hair away from safe) with George Allen.

Ohio: Josh Mandel probably wins, though it would be competitive. Lean/Likely R.

Massachusetts: Safe D flip.

Pennsylvania: Likely D flip.

[bagelman]

I'll do all within 10%.

North Dakota: Safe R with Rick Berg

Nevada: Likely D with Shelly Berkely

Arizona: Likely D with Richard Carmona

Montana: Likely R with Denny Rehberg

Wisconsin: Lean D with Tommy Thompson. It would probably correlate strongly with the governor election, like FL in OTL.

New Mexico: Even if Gary Johnson doesn't run, it would still be a safe D flip.

Indiana: If Mourdock's gaffe didn't hurt him in 2012, I don't think it would hurt him in 2018. The democrats would spend money here but I think Mourdock still win. Lean R.

Virginia: Likely D flip (just a hair away from safe) with George Allen.

Ohio: Josh Mandel probably wins, though it would be competitive. Lean/Likely R.

Massachusetts: Safe D flip.

Pennsylvania: Likely D flip.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=6x5z after 2012

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=6x64 after 2014

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=6x65 after 2016

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=6x66 your 2018 projections. Even being nice to Nelson in FL, it's still pretty grim. I can see why an Atlas blue avatar like you went with the 10% margin.

[NewYorkExpress]

Arizona: Richard Carmona: Lean D, opponent would be Martha McSally

Connecticut: Linda McMahon: Safe D, opponent would be Jim Himes. There's also the non-zero chance McMahon would get a position in the Trump Administration.

Florida: Connie Mack IV: Tossup, opponent would be Gwen Graham.

Hawaii: Linda Lingle: Safe D, Opponent would be Tulsi Gabbard (and Tulsi would win easily too).

Indiana: Richard Mourdock: Lean R, Opponent would be Pete Buttigeig

Massachusetts: Scott Brown: Likely D, Opponent would be Joe Kennedy III

Michigan: Pete Hoekstra: Lean D, Opponent would be Gretchen Whitmer

Missouri: Todd Akin: Tossup, Opponent would be Claire McCaskill

Montana: Denny Rehberg: Lean R, Opponent would be Steve Bullock

Nebraska: Bob Kerrery: Safe R, Opponent would be Brad Ashford

Nevada: Shelley Berkely: Tossup, Opponent would be Brian Sandoval

New Mexico: Heather Wilson: Tossup, Opponent would be Susana Martinez

North Dakota: Rick Berg: Safe R: Opponent would be Heidi Heitkamp

Ohio: Josh Mandel: Lean R: Opponent would be Andrew Ginther

Pennsylvania: Tom Smith: Tossup, Opponent would be Michael Nutter

Virginia: George Allen: Tossup: Opponent would be Jennifer Wexton

Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson: Tossup: Opponent would be Ron Kind