OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance (user search)
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  OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance  (Read 95064 times)
sting in the rafters
slimey56
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,490
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.46, S: -7.30

P P P
« on: March 11, 2021, 04:42:29 PM »
« edited: March 12, 2021, 12:10:47 PM by slimey56 »

Doesn’t matter, I gave up on Ohio the minute Sherrod Brown’s result was to the right of the nation in 2018 midterms. In comparison, Baldwin/Casey’s margins were well to the left of the nation in 2018. If they’re to the right of the nation with an D-incumbent in a year where the GOP base stayed home, how can you expect to win an open seat?

Ohio’s not PA/WI where Dems will win 85-90% of the time as long as their base shows up. Even with Ryan on the ballot, those demographic trends+brain drain are just too much to overcome. Maybe he gets to 47-48% but I have a hard time seeing him get 50%+1.

Tl;dr: Likely R and closer to Safe R than Lean R
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sting in the rafters
slimey56
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,490
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.46, S: -7.30

P P P
« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2022, 03:22:23 PM »

I respect Tim Ryan for at least attempting to campaign to people who aren't just college educated liberal democratic voters onto his side. I still think, based on his voting record in Congress as well as his presidential campaign, that he is just being a fraud and will be just as liberal in the Senate. But it's a start.


Is it fraudulent of him to emphasize his appeal on materialistic grounds given that's been his bread-and-butter his whole career? Consider his long-standing Sinophobic-tinged protectionist appeal manifesting his CHIPS act vote as a measure to keep American industry competitive. Furthermore, he passionately defends the newly instituted insulin caps and calls for further drug price controls while also opposing single-payer healthcare to protect the industrial unions/military's recruiting incentives.

The key is authenticity; Ryan's career-long sensibilities towards his constituents' concerns might assuage fears these are merely politically expedient moves to win a campaign. Vance remains a comfortable-though-not-solid favorite. Despite now subsiding inflation did a heavy number on Democrats that we'll only see this fall. Nonetheless, Ryan might just be what the doc ordered for relieving Northern Ohio's nativist-induced amnesia towards its solidarity-forged past.

I don't know if it's true but Vance hasn't done anything for it to not be the case.

Remember Trump hasn't visited Ohio yet. We'll see where we really stand after the world's largest political college football tailgate plays his greatest hits in whatever Ohioan minor league baseball/FCS stadium fate lands on and gets all the Trumpies fired up. Ryan might garner indie votes however the more relevant question is will it matter given how super-heated conservative turnout shapes up to be? At a certain point the math just isn't there.
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sting in the rafters
slimey56
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,490
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.46, S: -7.30

P P P
« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2022, 07:56:50 PM »

I respect Tim Ryan for at least attempting to campaign to people who aren't just college educated liberal democratic voters onto his side. I still think, based on his voting record in Congress as well as his presidential campaign, that he is just being a fraud and will be just as liberal in the Senate. But it's a start.


Is it fraudulent of him to emphasize his appeal on materialistic grounds given that's been his bread-and-butter his whole career? Consider his long-standing Sinophobic-tinged protectionist appeal manifesting his CHIPS act vote as a measure to keep American industry competitive. Furthermore, he passionately defends the newly instituted insulin caps and calls for further drug price controls while also opposing single-payer healthcare to protect the industrial unions/military's recruiting incentives.

The key is authenticity; Ryan's career-long sensibilities towards his constituents' concerns might assuage fears these are merely politically expedient moves to win a campaign. Vance remains a comfortable-though-not-solid favorite. Despite now subsiding inflation did a heavy number on Democrats that we'll only see this fall. Nonetheless, Ryan might just be what the doc ordered for relieving Northern Ohio's nativist-induced amnesia towards its solidarity-forged past.

I don't know if it's true but Vance hasn't done anything for it to not be the case.

Remember Trump hasn't visited Ohio yet. We'll see where we really stand after the world's largest political college football tailgate plays his greatest hits in whatever Ohioan minor league baseball/FCS stadium fate lands on and gets all the Trumpies fired up. Ryan might garner indie votes however the more relevant question is will it matter given how super-heated conservative turnout shapes up to be? At a certain point the math just isn't there.


Lol… do not use the word “sinophobic” in any reply to me. I will just ignore the rest of your post even if it makes good points.

Fair enough lmao dont get me wrong phuck the CCP just didn't have a better synonym for anti-China in my head
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sting in the rafters
slimey56
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,490
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.46, S: -7.30

P P P
« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2022, 08:05:24 AM »

Remember Trump hasn't visited Ohio yet. We'll see where we really stand after the world's largest political college football tailgate plays his greatest hits in whatever Ohioan minor league baseball/FCS stadium fate lands on and gets all the Trumpies fired up. Ryan might garner indie votes however the more relevant question is will it matter given how super-heated conservative turnout shapes up to be? At a certain point the math just isn't there.
Oh, don't get me wrong, while I'm being performatively optimistic about this and definitely see a path for Ryan I have no illusions that inertia may well carry the day here. But the best case for Vance still seems to be the McConnell zone of being an unpopular and unlikable incumbent who nevertheless keeps surviving because of the lean of his state and whatever largesse he deigns to dispense (not that Vance will do that bit, but you know what I mean).

In that case keep on sippin!
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