OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[GALeftist]

Cook already downgrading the race all the way to Lean R:

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1353732687786369024

Are you kidding me? Lol I thought they would downgrade it to Likely and that would be too aggressive.

[GALeftist]

Cook Political now unironically believes Ohio is as competitive as Wisconsin.

[GALeftist]

I honestly think the Democrats might as well run Kyle Korver and LeBron James if they can get them on board. They'd probably energize minority turnout as much as any regular politician, and who knows, maybe it would be easier for Obama/Trump voters to vote for TV sports man. Moreover, even if they crash and burn, it's not like they've whiffed otherwise winnable races, plus no politician has their career ended.

[GALeftist]

Who is even left?

[GALeftist]

Safe R —> Safe R

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1408524901745631232

I'm sure his "you people are all lazy welfare queens who need to pull yourselves up by your bootstraps like me" is going to be a winning message in rural Ohio lol

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/1411023629186482180

Do you think he's ever heard of the First Amendment?

This isn't a stretch for too many people, given how ingrained and Abrahamic American civil religion has been since the 50s and how we tend to treat the latter like the former. It isn't a good thing, of course, but it's fitting red meat for the people who'll be behind him.

Regardless, it's just blatantly wrong to anyone who has even a basic knowledge of the Constitution. It's sad that this sort of thing is now a viable strategy to win, not even in Alabama, but Ohio.

[GALeftist]

Cards on the table here, I think a lot of Republicans online are drastically overestimating the environment that is about to occur. I understand that polling has had pretty frequent misses recently, so you might be inclined to ignore it for good reason, but I think that's led to a lot of people estimating the environment based on, like, vibes, and then just calling others fools for not getting the same vibes that they are. That is obviously problematic when polarization means that most people are probably spending most of their time around people who think like them.

With that being said, I think Tim Ryan has basically no chance if Vance has been staying away from kids. The math here is pretty simple: in 2018 Sherrod Brown won OH-Sen by 7 in a D+8 year. Now, let's be very generous and suppose that 2022 will have an even generic ballot (doubtful), Ryan is as good of a candidate as Brown (even more doubtful), and Vance is just as bad as Renacci (perhaps the most doubtful). Under those conditions, applying uniform swing, we'd still expect Vance to win. If anything, I suspect Ohio would be resilient against such a swing given it's sprinting rightward.

With that also being said, I am still glad he is running and even more glad that he seems to be trying. There will likely be three competitive House races in November, and DeWine is likely to romp. Without a credible race at the top of the ticket, I don't like our chances in any of those; if Ryan performs respectably statewide, we might have a shot in at least some.