OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Frenchrepublican]

Doesn’t matter, I gave up on Ohio the minute Sherrod Brown’s result was to the right of the nation in 2018 midterms. In comparison, Duckworth/Casey’s margins were well to the left of the nation in 2018. If they’re to the right of the nation with an D-incumbent in a year where the GOP base stayed home, how can you expect to win an open seat?

Ohio’s not PA/WI where Dems will win 85-90% of the time as long as their base shows up. Even with Ryan on the ballot, those demographic trends+brain drain are just too much to overcome. Maybe he gets to 47-48% but I have a hard time seeing him get 50%+1.

Tl;dr: Likely R and closer to Safe R than Lean R

Did you mean Baldwin ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Tim Ryan outperformed Biden in his district by 5.2% (winning by 8.6% vs Biden's 3.4%). If we carry that through the entire state (which is generous) he would've lost to a generic Republican opponent by 2.8% statewide in 2020. Not to mention, this race was thought to be "Safe D" so the Republican didn't receive any national attention. Why does anybody believe with that set of facts that Mandel or anybody would "struggle" against him?

I mean, I don’t think it will be competitive either, but Mandel did underperform Kasich by quite a bit in 2014 and Romney in 2012 by a couple points (though most of that was probably because of Sherrod Brown being an exceptional candidate) so I can see where people are coming from when they say Mandel is weak. Ryan v. Mandel is Democrats best scenario likely, but it would still take a D leaning environment which is unlikely to occur.

Do you remember who was Kasich's opponent in 2014 ? Fitzgerald was one of the weakest democratic gubernatorial candidate of that year.

[Frenchrepublican]

There's literally nothing to see here

Yup, but I suspect people will keep overreacting to polls that show this race to be somewhat competitive until fall 2022. Then the GOPer will start pulling ahead and end up winning by 8 16 pts.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/wsteaks/status/1375169046375772167?s=19

Didn't he drop out of that Senate race to focus on a familial health issue? Even if that wasn't the real reason, it was the plausibly-deniable public justification, so in the event that it was true, it just makes Trump look like even more of an asshole than he obviously already was.

The more likely reason is that he was a bit afraid after seeing the different special election results in deep red seats and thus he decided to drop out of the race in order to avoid losing to Brown a second time as that would kill his career, the problem is that in the end the GOP didn't have the time to field someone serious against Brown (as Tiberi had already announced he would not run against Mandel who was the presumptive nominee at that time), the result being a third Brown term.

[Frenchrepublican]

This thread should not have 16 (now 17) pages. This is not a competitive race.

Anything can happen, democrats have won statewide in 2018. Atlasians just love to declare races non competive.

In 2018 democrats won 1 statewide race (and they lost 5), and it was the race where they had an incumbent and where the GOP candidate did not even bother to campaign, so I'm not sure that you should be brag about it.

Also it is unlikely that 2022 is going to be a D+8 year, contrary to 2018.

So yeah, this race is not really competitive.

[Frenchrepublican]

I think too many posters in this thread are underestimating the Democrats' chances at flipping this seat. I think the Democratic Party in Ohio has a strong floor of at least 46% to work with -- all of their candidates in 2018 for state executive offices got at least that much. In the 16 races for the U.S. House, the Democrats collectively got a little over 47%. And I think the GOP is going to have poor voter turnout in 2022, because of Trump emphasizing his belief in massive voter fraud, causing a sizable portion of the GOP base to stay home out of distrust in the integrity of the election system. I expect there to be lower voter turnout in 2022 than there was in 2018 because of Trump poisoning his party's trust in the electoral process.

Plus, we don't know yet who will be the two nominees, or where will Biden's popularity be at by October 2022.

This is the most absurd post I have read on this forum over the past three months. The Ohio democrats don't have a 46% floor, it's absurd, in 2020 House democrats got less than 43% of the statewide vote, in 2016 Strickland got 37% and in 2014 many democratic candidates were under 40%, the dem floor is probably around 38%, not 46%. 2018 was a great year for democrats and they largely overperformed their ''normal'' numbers in most states, pretending that Cordray  numbers are the real dem floor is absurd, it's like arguing that Gillespie 2014 numbers are the GOP floor in VA. The remaining part of your post is just some wishful thinking not backed by any data.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1379059064680894468?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[Frenchrepublican]

He would probably be the weakest possible candidate and likely the only one who would have a decent chance of losing the seat
https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1382707919867809792?s=20