OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does Ryan have any chance?

Sure, I call it Lean R.  I define Lean as "one side is currently favored, but it wouldn't be a real surprise if the other won."

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does Ryan have any chance?

I think it'd be very difficult. He would need to basically max out all 3 Cs and recieve a 20 point overperformance in the northeastern region of Ohio (which tends to be the most swingy, much of the southern and western parts of the state are far more politically stable).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Does Ryan have any chance?

I think it'd be very difficult. He would need to basically max out all 3 Cs and recieve a 20 point overperformance in the northeastern region of Ohio (which tends to be the most swingy, much of the southern and western parts of the state are far more politically stable).

Lol the last poll had it 46/43 Ryan they haven't even polled the race let's wait til the voters cast our votes it's not just about models it's 12% blk we're not the majority we are the balance of power and Hurricane Ian doesn't touch PA, NV, AZ, NH, GA, WI, OH, UT and NC these races are 5 pts or less what did Beshear win tell us in red Appalachia that a blue dog can win, this is a bellwether for KY 23/ OH 24 why did Brown win in 2006/12 and Strickland because OH elected Dennis Kucinich, stop preemptively the vote did you  have GA red on your map, NC and ME blue you were wrong and you can wrong again, it's not just about models it's about votes

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

All he really needs is to match Brandon in the cities and suburbs and then hope for low rural turnout.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Progressive moderate had a D nut map in 2020 and predicted ME and NC and GA wrong and he thinks DeWine is gonna push Bance over but Brown and DeWine win  2018 that wasa different yr but Trump wasn't on the ballot Rs underperforming in states where Trump isn't on the ballot the only reason why Rubio may beat DEMINGS and it's only 7 is  because he is Latinx takes away blk and Brown support but rural vote is lower when Trump isn't on the ballot that's why Warnock won by 50 K and he leads by 5 lower rural vote

Look at his map now it's wrong in GA, AZ, PA he only has Ds winning NH, LOL

[Brittain33]

I have this race as Likely R, but there’s one contradiction I haven’t seen people to address.

We know Brown won his re-election by a sizable margin, if less than the big leads he was showing in polls. But if you bring that up as a template for Ryan, you hear that Brown is an established incumbent first elected at a time when Ohio was more competitive, and doesn’t represent today’s partisanship.

Ok. Fair enough. But if Ohio is uncompetitive because Trump won by a wide 8 points in 2020… isn’t Trump’s incumbency a factor in the size of his win, too? Or does incumbency only help Democrats in Ohio?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They are just saying that because Rs know that if we win UT, OH or NC they won't win back the Sen in 24 so they hope we get stuck at 50/52 so they can win MT, WV and OH and we can win back the H in 24

We know Rs never want Ds to get 52 Senators plus H and H might be Gone in 22 but win it back in 24 because get rid of the Filibuster and we won NC Gov in 20, so the 303 map doesn't apply it's a 319 map NC is our 53 rd seat

We might lose FL due to IAN that was an Act of GOD,

[wbrocks67]

Ryan raised $17M in Q3. If Vance's #s are as atrocious as they were last quarter, it's very possible Ryan has still been able to lead the airwaves since candidates get much better rates than the PACs.

https://twitter.com/dskolnick/status/1577625605864054784

[SnowLabrador]

I have this race as Likely R, but there’s one contradiction I haven’t seen people to address.

We know Brown won his re-election by a sizable margin, if less than the big leads he was showing in polls. But if you bring that up as a template for Ryan, you hear that Brown is an established incumbent first elected at a time when Ohio was more competitive, and doesn’t represent today’s partisanship.

Ok. Fair enough. But if Ohio is uncompetitive because Trump won by a wide 8 points in 2020… isn’t Trump’s incumbency a factor in the size of his win, too? Or does incumbency only help Democrats in Ohio?

This is a legitimate point, but it's hard for me to imagine anyone saying, "I don't like Trump, but I'm going to vote for him because he's currently President." It wasn't just incumbency that caused Trump to win Ohio by 8 points.

[It’s so Joever]

The side which tried to use funding to tell themselves they can win is the side that will lose. See:
Wbrocks in OH-Sen and WI-Sen and SirWoodbury in GA-Sen

[Unelectable Bystander]

I have this race as Likely R, but there’s one contradiction I haven’t seen people to address.

We know Brown won his re-election by a sizable margin, if less than the big leads he was showing in polls. But if you bring that up as a template for Ryan, you hear that Brown is an established incumbent first elected at a time when Ohio was more competitive, and doesn’t represent today’s partisanship.

Ok. Fair enough. But if Ohio is uncompetitive because Trump won by a wide 8 points in 2020… isn’t Trump’s incumbency a factor in the size of his win, too? Or does incumbency only help Democrats in Ohio?

This is a legitimate point, but it's hard for me to imagine anyone saying, "I don't like Trump, but I'm going to vote for him because he's currently President." It wasn't just incumbency that caused Trump to win Ohio by 8 points.

I think incumbency is a fair point but it’s only worth 1-2% and it was present for Trump nationally (part of the reason why it was close). The point is he was an incumbent in all the other states and still won Ohio by 12% more than his margin elsewhere.

The area where incumbency is more valuable is senate and (even more so) the house. These candidates are personally known and liked by their constituents and outrun their partisan baseline as a result. Nobody in Ohio voted for Trump because they had a personal relationship.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To all Doomers Ryan leads 43/35

[Brittain33]

The incumbency vote for Trump is “I don’t like Trump, but he’s focused on keeping my employer open when I need a paycheck and I don’t want to take a chance with Biden shutting things down or bringing socialism in.”

[S019]

I have this race as Likely R, but there’s one contradiction I haven’t seen people to address.

We know Brown won his re-election by a sizable margin, if less than the big leads he was showing in polls. But if you bring that up as a template for Ryan, you hear that Brown is an established incumbent first elected at a time when Ohio was more competitive, and doesn’t represent today’s partisanship.

Ok. Fair enough. But if Ohio is uncompetitive because Trump won by a wide 8 points in 2020… isn’t Trump’s incumbency a factor in the size of his win, too? Or does incumbency only help Democrats in Ohio?

Trump won Ohio by a large margin in 2016 too. Anyways, I think this is Safe R at this point, Vance has started leading polls and as everyone else has said Ryan has a very steep battle and basically everyone needs to go right for him and even then it isn't enough. Sure it's technically possible in the way that say Iowa is, but it's not within the range of realistic possibilities.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something you call yourself Tim Ryan and don't support your own candidates a D you have an R nut map, I don't make maps based on ratings, whaT did rankings say last time Ds we're gonna net gain seats we lost seats it's a prediction maps not a ratings map you can make your map whatever

I enthusiastically support Blk D candidates I don't say Barnes or Warnock are gonna lose and I call myself Bakari Sellers, we're all voting no one's vote is more important than orhers

[Brittain33]

I have this race as Likely R, but there’s one contradiction I haven’t seen people to address.

We know Brown won his re-election by a sizable margin, if less than the big leads he was showing in polls. But if you bring that up as a template for Ryan, you hear that Brown is an established incumbent first elected at a time when Ohio was more competitive, and doesn’t represent today’s partisanship.

Ok. Fair enough. But if Ohio is uncompetitive because Trump won by a wide 8 points in 2020… isn’t Trump’s incumbency a factor in the size of his win, too? Or does incumbency only help Democrats in Ohio?

Trump won Ohio by a large margin in 2016 too. Anyways, I think this is Safe R at this point, Vance has started leading polls and as everyone else has said Ryan has a very steep battle and basically everyone needs to go right for him and even then it isn't enough. Sure it's technically possible in the way that say Iowa is, but it's not within the range of realistic possibilities.

I stand by Likely R. You will never see Republicans pour $28m into Wyoming or Idaho, much less polls as late as October showing a Dem lead.

We shouldn’t expect Ryan to win but we shouldn’t be surprised if he does.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I have this race as Likely R, but there’s one contradiction I haven’t seen people to address.

We know Brown won his re-election by a sizable margin, if less than the big leads he was showing in polls. But if you bring that up as a template for Ryan, you hear that Brown is an established incumbent first elected at a time when Ohio was more competitive, and doesn’t represent today’s partisanship.

Ok. Fair enough. But if Ohio is uncompetitive because Trump won by a wide 8 points in 2020… isn’t Trump’s incumbency a factor in the size of his win, too? Or does incumbency only help Democrats in Ohio?

Trump won Ohio by a large margin in 2016 too. Anyways, I think this is Safe R at this point, Vance has started leading polls and as everyone else has said Ryan has a very steep battle and basically everyone needs to go right for him and even then it isn't enough. Sure it's technically possible in the way that say Iowa is, but it's not within the range of realistic possibilities.

No, Ryan winning is definitely within the range of realistic possibilities; it’s just unlikely.  The better comparison would be Trump’s chances of winning the day before Election Day 2016.  It can still happen, but there is only about a ~20% chance Ryan wins at this point.  That’s still a 1/5 chance, but it’s far more likely Vance narrowly wins.  

Respectfully, comparing this race to the one in Iowa doesn’t even make sense.  In Iowa, there is a longtime, popular Republican incumbent facing an unremarkable, underfunded some dude sacrificial lamb who sexually assaulted a member of his campaign staff in a race no one ever argued was even remotely competitive.  That’s an extremely apples and oranges comparison, regardless of what result you’re expecting.

[If my soul was made of stone]

S019 is an Atlas zoomer #trends-bro who thinks that elections are predetermined on the quantum level in ways that would move the Democratic Party to the right (to benefit his class interests) and not to be taken seriously.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He had a Warner/TMac/Clinton banner predicted wrong on VA Gov race, then he changed it NJ and then back to VA, but Blue VA, and now it's this Ryan Doomer banner he has been all over the place

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

S019 is an Atlas zoomer #trends-bro who thinks that elections are predetermined on the quantum level in ways that would move the Democratic Party to the right (to benefit his class interests) and not to be taken seriously.

As opposed to you a primtivism socialist who thinks rain dances work.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't descend into a name-calling match, please.

[If my soul was made of stone]

S019 is an Atlas zoomer #trends-bro who thinks that elections are predetermined on the quantum level in ways that would move the Democratic Party to the right (to benefit his class interests) and not to be taken seriously.

As opposed to you a primtivism socialist who thinks rain dances work.

As opposed to Tim Ryan, who is amassing his army of yogic flyers in an abandoned factory in Warren to chase JD Vance down and across the Ohio to Weirton.

Also, sigged

[S019]

I have this race as Likely R, but there’s one contradiction I haven’t seen people to address.

We know Brown won his re-election by a sizable margin, if less than the big leads he was showing in polls. But if you bring that up as a template for Ryan, you hear that Brown is an established incumbent first elected at a time when Ohio was more competitive, and doesn’t represent today’s partisanship.

Ok. Fair enough. But if Ohio is uncompetitive because Trump won by a wide 8 points in 2020… isn’t Trump’s incumbency a factor in the size of his win, too? Or does incumbency only help Democrats in Ohio?

Trump won Ohio by a large margin in 2016 too. Anyways, I think this is Safe R at this point, Vance has started leading polls and as everyone else has said Ryan has a very steep battle and basically everyone needs to go right for him and even then it isn't enough. Sure it's technically possible in the way that say Iowa is, but it's not within the range of realistic possibilities.

No, Ryan winning is definitely within the range of realistic possibilities; it’s just unlikely.  The better comparison would be Trump’s chances of winning the day before Election Day 2016.  It can still happen, but there is only about a ~20% chance Ryan wins at this point.  That’s still a 1/5 chance, but it’s far more likely Vance narrowly wins.  

Respectfully, comparing this race to the one in Iowa doesn’t even make sense.  In Iowa, there is a longtime, popular Republican incumbent facing an unremarkable, underfunded some dude sacrificial lamb who sexually assaulted a member of his campaign staff in a race no one ever argued was even remotely competitive.  That’s an extremely apples and oranges comparison, regardless of what result you’re expecting.

In 2018, a year that was a massive blue wave, Democrats lost every row office except for the one that they had an incumbent in. Given how that year played out, I'm pretty certain Brown would've lost had he run in an open seat. Even in 2020, which was a D leaning year, Democrats did awfully in Ohio. Ohio polls have also been garbage for three straight cycles. There is no universe where Johnson wins by 3-4 and Ohio is within 5. I feel like everyone is setting themselves up for disappointment yet again.

S019 is an Atlas zoomer #trends-bro who thinks that elections are predetermined on the quantum level in ways that would move the Democratic Party to the right (to benefit his class interests) and not to be taken seriously.

All I'm saying is be prepared to be disappointed if what has happened for the past 3 cycles happens for a fourth consecutive one. In any case, if Democrats are even somewhat close here, they've almost certainly expanded their House majority.

[If my soul was made of stone]

In any case, if Democrats are even somewhat close here, they've almost certainly expanded their House majority.

uniform 👏 swing 👏 does 👏 not 👏 exist 👏

at any rate i don't actually expect ryan to win but i can at least see the hypothetical path and vance's margin will be pretty underwhelming for the Fundamentals™ of the Biden Midterm™ and the Trends™

[philly09]

DDHQ has moved this race from Lean R to Toss-Up.