OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Calthrina950]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

[wbrocks67]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

[Calthrina950]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

Brown is an incumbent, won in a Democratic wave year, and still underperformed the polls against a challenger who was as weak as J.D. Vance is. And it's hard for me to see Ryan mustering the level of crossover appeal necessary to overcome a double-digit landslide by DeWine in this state. I'd also say that Biden was thought be competitive in Ohio in 2020, and even campaigned there, only for Trump to win decisively on Election Day. The polls in Ohio have underestimated Republicans consistently for several years now, and the collapse in Ryan's support from 2018 to 2020 gives me little confidence that he will be able to reverse the trends here.

[wbrocks67]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

Brown is an incumbent, won in a Democratic wave year, and still underperformed the polls against a challenger who was as weak as J.D. Vance is. And it's hard for me to see Ryan mustering the level of crossover appeal necessary to overcome a double-digit landslide by DeWine in this state. I'd also say that Biden was thought be competitive in Ohio in 2020, and even campaigned there, only for Trump to win decisively on Election Day. The polls in Ohio have underestimated Republicans consistently for several years now, and the collapse in Ryan's support from 2018 to 2020 gives me little confidence that he will be able to reverse the trends here.

But have we stopped though to think that Ryan has possibly even more crossover appeal than Brown does? I'm not saying it's true, but it's not impossible either. I also think Vance is easily a worse candidate than 2018.

Brown won by 6.5 in a D+8.5 year. He underperformed national Ds by 2%. SO yes, incumbency matters, but Vance is also horrific, so honestly if this is a D+2 or more year, I don't think it's impossible for Ryan to win.

[Calthrina950]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

Brown is an incumbent, won in a Democratic wave year, and still underperformed the polls against a challenger who was as weak as J.D. Vance is. And it's hard for me to see Ryan mustering the level of crossover appeal necessary to overcome a double-digit landslide by DeWine in this state. I'd also say that Biden was thought be competitive in Ohio in 2020, and even campaigned there, only for Trump to win decisively on Election Day. The polls in Ohio have underestimated Republicans consistently for several years now, and the collapse in Ryan's support from 2018 to 2020 gives me little confidence that he will be able to reverse the trends here.

But have we stopped though to think that Ryan has possibly even more crossover appeal than Brown does? I'm not saying it's true, but it's not impossible either. I also think Vance is easily a worse candidate than 2018.

Brown won by 6.5 in a D+8.5 year. He underperformed national Ds by 2%. SO yes, incumbency matters, but Vance is also horrific, so honestly if this is a D+2 or more year, I don't think it's impossible for Ryan to win.

As of right now, I'm doubtful that this year is going to be a Democratic wave. At best, I envision it as a neutral environment, with Dobbs having given the Democrats a considerable boost compared to their standing earlier in the year. But Dobbs alone will not decide the outcome of the race in Ohio. Now, if this race were in 2006, 2010, or 2012, I do believe Ryan would be favored, and he would demolish Vance in the traditionally Democratic working-class and industrial sections of Ohio. But his coalition this year will look markedly different, and I'm skeptical that he will make the gains necessary in urban and suburban areas of Ohio to offset the Republican advantage in the Mahoning Valley and in Eastern Ohio.

As for 2018, most polls showed Brown winning by double digits, and he underperformed that by a noticeable amount. One also has to keep in mind that Ohio has trended further to the right since then, as exemplified by Lorain and Mahoning Counties flipping to Trump in 2020.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

Brown is an incumbent, won in a Democratic wave year, and still underperformed the polls against a challenger who was as weak as J.D. Vance is. And it's hard for me to see Ryan mustering the level of crossover appeal necessary to overcome a double-digit landslide by DeWine in this state. I'd also say that Biden was thought be competitive in Ohio in 2020, and even campaigned there, only for Trump to win decisively on Election Day. The polls in Ohio have underestimated Republicans consistently for several years now, and the collapse in Ryan's support from 2018 to 2020 gives me little confidence that he will be able to reverse the trends here.

As bad as Renacci was, he was no where near the same ballpark of how bad a candidate Vance has proven to be

[wbrocks67]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

Brown is an incumbent, won in a Democratic wave year, and still underperformed the polls against a challenger who was as weak as J.D. Vance is. And it's hard for me to see Ryan mustering the level of crossover appeal necessary to overcome a double-digit landslide by DeWine in this state. I'd also say that Biden was thought be competitive in Ohio in 2020, and even campaigned there, only for Trump to win decisively on Election Day. The polls in Ohio have underestimated Republicans consistently for several years now, and the collapse in Ryan's support from 2018 to 2020 gives me little confidence that he will be able to reverse the trends here.

As bad as Renacci was, he was no where near the same ballpark of how bad a candidate Vance has proven to be

Wasn't Renacci essentially generic R?

[Calthrina950]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

Brown is an incumbent, won in a Democratic wave year, and still underperformed the polls against a challenger who was as weak as J.D. Vance is. And it's hard for me to see Ryan mustering the level of crossover appeal necessary to overcome a double-digit landslide by DeWine in this state. I'd also say that Biden was thought be competitive in Ohio in 2020, and even campaigned there, only for Trump to win decisively on Election Day. The polls in Ohio have underestimated Republicans consistently for several years now, and the collapse in Ryan's support from 2018 to 2020 gives me little confidence that he will be able to reverse the trends here.

As bad as Renacci was, he was no where near the same ballpark of how bad a candidate Vance has proven to be

You could say that, but the advantage Vance has over Renacci is that he is running in an environment that is markedly more favorable for his party than 2018 was. And even with the winds behind their backs that year, Democrats were unable to win back the governorship of Ohio in an open race, and did not win any other statewide offices aside from Brown's seat.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

Brown is an incumbent, won in a Democratic wave year, and still underperformed the polls against a challenger who was as weak as J.D. Vance is. And it's hard for me to see Ryan mustering the level of crossover appeal necessary to overcome a double-digit landslide by DeWine in this state. I'd also say that Biden was thought be competitive in Ohio in 2020, and even campaigned there, only for Trump to win decisively on Election Day. The polls in Ohio have underestimated Republicans consistently for several years now, and the collapse in Ryan's support from 2018 to 2020 gives me little confidence that he will be able to reverse the trends here.

As bad as Renacci was, he was no where near the same ballpark of how bad a candidate Vance has proven to be

Wasn't Renacci essentially generic R?

Uh no sorry. Renacci, while not an insane republican by any means, was an absolutely inept and incompetent campaigner who was dubbed by GOP strategists as "Ed Fitzgerald with a driver's license"

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1307005725533560833?t=8ZV9IATtxoPMlo3...


https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1570528485701193729?t=oQqX0rCr_hDu-TNS...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gosh, a couple of polls between different candidates for different offices in different years have the same numbers!  What a shocking correlation!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Gosh, a couple of polls between different candidates for different offices in different years have the same numbers!  What a shocking correlation!

Same margins in exactly the same timeframe for a cycle.. yes, it is a interesting correlation, especially as there seems to be those who suggest Ryan is favored.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gosh, a couple of polls between different candidates for different offices in different years have the same numbers!  What a shocking correlation!

Same margins in exactly the same timeframe for a cycle.. yes, it is a interesting correlation, especially as there seems to be those who suggest Ryan is favoured.

There are some who suggest that, although I'm not one of them; I have the race at Lean R.  The margin in this poll is quite plausible, but IMO the same margin showing up in the presidential poll you cited is nothing more than coincidence.

[wbrocks67]

Gosh, a couple of polls between different candidates for different offices in different years have the same numbers!  What a shocking correlation!

Same margins in exactly the same timeframe for a cycle.. yes, it is a interesting correlation, especially as there seems to be those who suggest Ryan is favoured.

I mean, Civiqs is also terribly underestimated Biden now for a while, so they're not some D-leaning outlet.

[Brittain33]

especially as there seems to be those who suggest Ryan is favored.

Is there anyone who thinks that? There are several of us who have controversially suggested the race might be Lean R, not Likely R (or "Safe R, nothing to see here.") But even a Lean R race means Vance is favored.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1571225050358972419

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schumer said 3 to 8 seats and he is counting on netting WI, PA and OH they're all 3/4 pts including NV and GA and AZ

If we win this seat this is a BELLWETHERS for OH and KY 23)24 that's why Brown is so heavily invested in Ryan winning he doesn't want  Josh Mandel to beat him in 24 and Vance in this seat it will help Rs

I don't care how much Brown won his past Edays he said Vance will only help the Republican candidate in 24 to win, there has been multiple polls showing Ryan AHEAD

Emerson showing Vance ahead and Impact AARP showing Ryan in the lead

Schumer is also looking at 24 MT, OH and WVA too that's why he said 3/8 seats not 2, we won't know til EDay , but as usual we have the DOOMERS whom swear that Vance will win, partisan trends aren't the same in Midterms just like Sununu, Scott and Hogan won and Laura Kelly won

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1571225050358972419

lolz

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1571225050358972419

Called it

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like there were actually some empty seats at a Trump rally for once:

[Calthrina950]

Looks like there were actually some empty seats at a Trump rally for once:

Perhaps because of the football game. But at any rate, there still should be no suspense about what the final outcome in Ohio will be.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looks like there were actually some empty seats at a Trump rally for once:

Perhaps because of the football game. But at any rate, there still should be no suspense about what the final outcome in Ohio will be.

Yep, it was obvious that Ohio State would crush Toledo (they did, 77-21).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio State always play well in reg season and when it gets time for playoffs they stink and they haven't won a title since 2015 with Ezekiel Elliott

Utah and Ohio Senate can be the upset of EDay, D's winning 54 SEATS

[MillennialModerate]

Ohio State always play well in reg season and when it gets time for playoffs they stink and they haven't won a title since 2015 with Ezekiel Elliott

Utah and Ohio Senate can be the upset of EDay, D's winning 54 SEATS

God you set the record for ridiculous things.

Ohio State had an unreal team in 2019 and frankly got screwed in 2019 by a targeting call against a top corner and a horrific non fumble call and then the WR breaking off the route in the red zone.

Then in 2020 they beat a heavily favored Clemson team before succumbing to a loaded Bama team.

And you’re obviously wrong about Ohio and UTAH?! come on LOL trolling much?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio State always play well in reg season and when it gets time for playoffs they stink and they haven't won a title since 2015 with Ezekiel Elliott

Utah and Ohio Senate can be the upset of EDay, D's winning 54 SEATS

God you set the record for ridiculous things.

Ohio State had an unreal team in 2019 and frankly got screwed in 2019 by a targeting call against a top corner and a horrific non fumble call and then the WR breaking off the route in the red zone.

Then in 2020 they beat a heavily favored Clemson team before succumbing to a loaded Bama team.

And you’re obviously wrong about Ohio and UTAH?! come on LOL trolling much?

Lol the Echelon polls has it 40/37 Lee over McMillan in UT and Impact polls has it 49/38  Ryan over Vance we're gonna get some Early votes in soon anyways , again they're not entering the D polls in the database they are only entering the R ones

I said they were upsets I didn't say they were sure wins just like Bengals upset Chiefs last yr it will be upset Ryan v Vance but Bengals aren't upsetting Chiefs this yr, the Chiefs are good