OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Meatball Ron]

Not sure what to make of this. On the one hand, this seat moves from unwinnable to winnable in a perfect storm, but on the other hand, most Republicans are a downgrade from Portman.

When has Portman ever voted with Dems on anything of significance?

That's kinda missing the point.  DiFi never breaks with Schumer on floor votes, for example, but her seniority and stature moderates the entire Democratic caucus towards her position.  Portman was in a similar position.  Replacing him with Renacci, Gonzalez or (God forbid) Jim Jordan is definitely a downgrade for Democrats and moderate centrists of either party.   

I follow the logic, but I think this is just in your head. No reason to believe Portman's "seniority and stature" has done anything to moderate the GOP Senate kkkaucus

[kwabbit]

I wonder if Chabot would run, he might be too old. Better to snag an easy senate seat than fight trends in Cincinnati, although his house seat will probably be shored up. If the OH GOP decides to cede the Cincinnati seat, then Chabot could take a shot. If he does, I think he would be a strong candidate.

[Tekken_Guy]

Is it safe to write off Gonzalez?

[One Term Floridian]

https://twitter.com/dannyoconnor1/status/1353735313982631938?s=21

Danny O’Connor considering a run?

Miami University is in Ohio after all lmao

[Del Tachi]

Not sure what to make of this. On the one hand, this seat moves from unwinnable to winnable in a perfect storm, but on the other hand, most Republicans are a downgrade from Portman.

When has Portman ever voted with Dems on anything of significance?

That's kinda missing the point.  DiFi never breaks with Schumer on floor votes, for example, but her seniority and stature moderates the entire Democratic caucus towards her position.  Portman was in a similar position.  Replacing him with Renacci, Gonzalez or (God forbid) Jim Jordan is definitely a downgrade for Democrats and moderate centrists of either party.   

I follow the logic, but I think this is just in your head. No reason to believe Portman's "seniority and stature" has done anything to moderate the GOP Senate kkkaucus

He is a whole 2% of it, is a former top-level Bush admin official, and Ohio is a pretty darned important state for GOP fundraising

[Orser67]

Bad news given that Dems don't have much of a shot here and his replacement is fairly likely to be worse (or much worse, if it's Jim Jordan).

Though this does probably make it more likely that he'll vote to convict Trump.

[Meatball Ron]

Not sure what to make of this. On the one hand, this seat moves from unwinnable to winnable in a perfect storm, but on the other hand, most Republicans are a downgrade from Portman.

When has Portman ever voted with Dems on anything of significance?

That's kinda missing the point.  DiFi never breaks with Schumer on floor votes, for example, but her seniority and stature moderates the entire Democratic caucus towards her position.  Portman was in a similar position.  Replacing him with Renacci, Gonzalez or (God forbid) Jim Jordan is definitely a downgrade for Democrats and moderate centrists of either party.   

I follow the logic, but I think this is just in your head. No reason to believe Portman's "seniority and stature" has done anything to moderate the GOP Senate kkkaucus

He is a whole 2% of it, is a former top-level Bush admin official, and Ohio is a pretty darned important state for GOP fundraising

Okay, those are all reasons why Portman should be influential in the caucus, but what evidence do you have that his temperament or supposed moderate / bipartisan stances have actually influenced the behavior or actions of that caucus? Not like it stopped them from trying to repeal ACA, ramming through ACB, etc. I am open to being wrong here, I just don't see any sort of reason to believe this is true even though hypothetically it could/should be true.

[MillennialModerate]

NORMALLY I’d say a vacated seat is a good thing as it makes it easier for Dems to contest - but the prospect of Jim Jordan as Senator is.... disgusting

[KaiserDave]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/25/politics/doug-ducey-rob-portman-2022/index.html

Right on cue

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Rob Portman was a uniquely strong incumbent because he has a gay son. He could say "I have a gay son" to deflect Young Kim attacks. Lean R now, closer to Tossup.

Normally I can't stand your memes, but this one,  this one got a real chuckle out of me.

[Canis]

Portman was genuinely popular so this is good news for Dems but with the way Ohios been trending and voting this is at best Likely R maybe it could go down to Lean with Jim Jordan but yeah its good we have a tiny shot here now but I'm not too hopeful about a pickup 2020 showed that Ohios on the same path Missouris been on.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1353771453146165248

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1353771453146165248

Thats smart lol why leave a race where your the heavy frontrunner for the primary and if you win the primary you're a lock on the general to a race where your chance of winning the primary is very low and winning the general is almost nonexistent.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1353771453146165248

No surprise

[Brittain33]

Not even Nina Turner is delusional enough to think she should switch races.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/henryjgomez/status/1353773592912261120?s=21

[Skye]

👀

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1353780222680838144

[Woody]

Next senator from Ohio:

[Brittain33]

Coming soon... “COME JOIN US TIM” featuring Cal, Sara, Steve, Jaime, Barbara...

[Gracile]

Yawn, Safe R.

[BuckeyeNut]

LOTS of candidates looking at this race.

The most likely Republican candidates seem to be:

* Jon Husted, Lieutenant Governor and former Secretary of State
* Jim Jordan, Congressman and founding Freedom Caucus member
* Josh Mandel, former Treasurer of State and Senate candidate (2012)

Other potential candidates:

* Bill Johnson, Congressman
* Frank LaRose, Secretary of State and former State Senator
* Jim Renacci, former Congressman and Senate candidate (2018)
* Steve Stivers, Congressman and former NRCC Chair
* Mary Taylor, former Lieutenant Governor and Auditor of State
* Jane Timken, Chair of the Ohio Republican Party
* J.D. Vance, venture capitalist and author of Hillbilly Elegy
* Brad Wenstrup, Congressman
* Dave Yost, Attorney General and former Auditor of State

[Meatball Ron]

LOTS of candidates looking at this race.

The most likely Republican candidates seem to be:

* Jon Husted, Lieutenant Governor and former Secretary of State
* Jim Jordan, Congressman and founding Freedom Caucus member
* Josh Mandel, former Treasurer of State and Senate candidate (2012)

Other potential candidates:

* Bill Johnson, Congressman
* Frank LaRose, Secretary of State and former State Senator
* Jim Renacci, former Congressman and Senate candidate (2018)
* Steve Stivers, Congressman and former NRCC Chair
* Mary Taylor, former Lieutenant Governor and Auditor of State
* Jane Timken, Chair of the Ohio Republican Party
* J.D. Vance, venture capitalist and author of Hillbilly Elegy
* Brad Wenstrup, Congressman
* Dave Yost, Attorney General and former Auditor of State

Not Mandel, I don't think. He lost one race, exited another, and seems to have deleted all of his social media accounts along with some other sketchy issues.

[Tekken_Guy]

LOTS of candidates looking at this race.

The most likely Republican candidates seem to be:

* Jon Husted, Lieutenant Governor and former Secretary of State
* Jim Jordan, Congressman and founding Freedom Caucus member
* Josh Mandel, former Treasurer of State and Senate candidate (2012)

Other potential candidates:

* Bill Johnson, Congressman
* Frank LaRose, Secretary of State and former State Senator
* Jim Renacci, former Congressman and Senate candidate (2018)
* Steve Stivers, Congressman and former NRCC Chair
* Mary Taylor, former Lieutenant Governor and Auditor of State
* Jane Timken, Chair of the Ohio Republican Party
* J.D. Vance, venture capitalist and author of Hillbilly Elegy
* Brad Wenstrup, Congressman
* Dave Yost, Attorney General and former Auditor of State

What about the impeacher?

[Roronoa D. Law]

👀

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1353780222680838144

He probably waiting to see what his district ends up looking like. Against Jordan, it can conceivably be competitive but he will very much be the underdog.

[Real Texan Politics]

Ahem...

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/lebron-james-us-senate-calls-ramp-up-portman-decision

Yes I know it's Fox News but still, would be an interesting primary if LeBron ends up running. He's arguably the most popular current NBA star at the moment.

Realistically though I think it's probably gonna be Jim Jordan vs Tim Ryan in the general.