OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Pericles]

Can Ryan's district definitely be gerrymandered so that it's to the right of the state, and will this happen?

[lfromnj]

Can Ryan's district definitely be gerrymandered so that it's to the right of the state, and will this happen?

Depends what you mean. Ryan's home doesn't even take gerrymandering to be right of the state. Akron does take some mild to moderate gerrymandering to a relative safeness

[Pericles]

Can Ryan's district definitely be gerrymandered so that it's to the right of the state, and will this happen?

Depends what you mean. Ryan's home doesn't even take gerrymandering to be right of the state. Akron does take some mild to moderate gerrymandering to a relative safeness

If the district remains to the left of the state, maybe it's in his interest, or at least the party's, not to run for the Senate seat.

[lfromnj]

Can Ryan's district definitely be gerrymandered so that it's to the right of the state, and will this happen?

Depends what you mean. Ryan's home doesn't even take gerrymandering to be right of the state. Akron does take some mild to moderate gerrymandering to a relative safeness

If the district remains to the left of the state, maybe it's in his interest, or at least the party's, not to run for the Senate seat.

I mean, Ryan comes from Youngstown(Actually Niles in Trumbull county) but his district also goes to Akron. The #trends aren't as bad in Akron either. Anyway this is a non gerrymandered NE Ohio map.  The seat he lives in is Teal and the Eastern one. It is safely Republican at Trump +16 now. However both the Brown and Orange seat are only Trump +6. A touch to the left of the state and he has represented part of the Orange seat and I think a very small part of the Brown seat. Not an easy win for either as most of it is new. Also you can gerrymander these seats to all be a bit more GOP.



Here's a gerrymandered NE Ohio where all the seats are right of the state by a few points and probably similar to what one can expect. Right now Ryan's seat is one of the most gerrymandered in the state and its a natural chopping block.

[Hope For A New Era]

For some context about Ryan's seat being gerrymandered - it was a D pack when it was created in 2012, and has moved extremely far to the right. In 2020 he only won by like 52/47. Even without redistricting, there would be a real chance of this seat flipping in 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This seat is much more likely to flip than D's winning NC or FL since Cheri Beasley is gonna win the Primary in NC not JACKSON

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1386648125889208320?s=21

[Lambsbread]

Wow, that ad was terrible. The awkward, obviously scripted dialogue...the "trying to explain complex issues to a child in a way that he could understand and still failing" angle...the obviously green-screened factory shot...felt more like a Tim Robinson sketch than an actual ad. People won't care about the nitty gritty of this thing, but Tim Ryan has got to be one of the most awkward people in politics.

[KaiserDave]

That was bad

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Yeah anyone that saw the campaign he ran in 2019-2020 and thought “Yeah, Tim Ryan will make this race competitive” has something seriously wrong with them.

[LabourJersey]

Wow, that ad was terrible. The awkward, obviously scripted dialogue...the "trying to explain complex issues to a child in a way that he could understand and still failing" angle...the obviously green-screened factory shot...felt more like a Tim Robinson sketch than an actual ad. People won't care about the nitty gritty of this thing, but Tim Ryan has got to be one of the most awkward people in politics.

The fact that he looks like Tim Robinson also doesn't help

[It’s so Joever]

Watch Democrats waste Money here.

[S019]

This seat is much more likely to flip than D's winning NC or FL since Cheri Beasley is gonna win the Primary in NC not JACKSON

Lolololololololololololololololololololololol


Imagine being so delusional that you actually have faith in Ohio still lol. The Republicans will win this by like 15, and then everyone will pretend that they saw it coming.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Tim Ryan isn't going to win. In fact, no Democrat (except for Sherrod Brown) will win a statewide race in Ohio for the foreseeable future.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tim Ryan isn't going to win. In fact, no Democrat (except for Sherrod Brown) will win a statewide race in Ohio for the foreseeable future.

Don't you know that PVI if it's 3.0 D's win WI, PA, NH, GA and OH with 53/47 Senate, last poll had a tie with Ryan and all the Rs

What the Ds can write off is NC, Beasley is too left wing if she is nominated to beat McCrory, since she leads Jackson, we must watch out for IA, Sand can win as well, against Grassley, IA and OH usually votes together

There maybe split voting like in 2018 between DeWine and Sherrod Brown, Rubio, CRIST, WARNOCK and Kemp and Hassan and Ayotte

[Lambsbread]

Tim Ryan isn't going to win. In fact, no Democrat (except for Sherrod Brown) will win a statewide race in Ohio for the foreseeable future.

Don't you know that PVI if it's 3.0 D's win WI, PA, NH, GA and OH with 53/47 Senate, last poll had a tie with Ryan and all the Rs

What the Ds can write off is NC, Beasley is too left wing if she is nominated to beat McCrory, since she leads Jackson, we must watch out for IA, Sand can win as well, against Grassley, IA and OH usually votes together

There maybe split voting like in 2018 between DeWine and Sherrod Brown, Rubio, CRIST, WARNOCK and Kemp and Hassan and Ayotte

How many people do you think are going to ticket split Warnock and Kemp?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well Abrams hasn't announced yet but she would win when she does

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This seat is much more likely to flip than D's winning NC or FL since Cheri Beasley is gonna win the Primary in NC not JACKSON

Lolololololololololololololololololololololol


Imagine being so delusional that you actually have faith in Ohio still lol. The Republicans will win this by like 15, and then everyone will pretend that they saw it coming.

S019 doesn't believe in blue waves, the reason why we didn't have one in 2020 AK,, KS, MT and TX were in the oil industry

WI, PA, NH, OH, IA don't have oil

[S019]

This seat is much more likely to flip than D's winning NC or FL since Cheri Beasley is gonna win the Primary in NC not JACKSON

Lolololololololololololololololololololololol


Imagine being so delusional that you actually have faith in Ohio still lol. The Republicans will win this by like 15, and then everyone will pretend that they saw it coming.

S019 doesn't believe in blue waves, the reason why we didn't have one in 2020 AK,, KS, MT and TX were in the oil industry

WI, PA, NH, OH, IA don't have oil

Lol, explain ME and NC then.

[BuckeyeNut]

Wow, that ad was terrible. The awkward, obviously scripted dialogue...the "trying to explain complex issues to a child in a way that he could understand and still failing" angle...the obviously green-screened factory shot...felt more like a Tim Robinson sketch than an actual ad. People won't care about the nitty gritty of this thing, but Tim Ryan has got to be one of the most awkward people in politics.

One, it's not an ad. It's a launch video. You cut 30-second spots from it for ads.

Two, the factory shot was great. Youngstown Sheet + Tube is iconic, and watching it come back to life is powerful symbolism.

The biggest problem with the launch video is the length, but nobody other than the most diehard politicos watches launch videos in the first place.

[BuckeyeNut]

For some context about Ryan's seat being gerrymandered - it was a D pack when it was created in 2012, and has moved extremely far to the right. In 2020 he only won by like 52/47. Even without redistricting, there would be a real chance of this seat flipping in 2022.

Slightly off, Tim won the district 52-45 while Biden carried it 51-48, but it's still a monumental change from when Tim won the district 72-28 in 2012.

[Not Me, Us]

I suppose Ryan works as a wave insurance candidate, but Democrats shouldn't waste their money here. Put the money into PA, NH, NV, AZ, and GA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If it's a 54/46 Senate D's win WI, PA, IA, NH, GA and OH, the Ds, D's are gonna nominate Beasley whom is a Socialisic Afro American instead of nominating Jackson, Sand would be a better wave insurance candidate

Kelly doesn't need help, just like last time, he has record fundraising, I would donate to Ryan and Sand

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/dsamuelsohn/status/1392264844938723329

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/dsamuelsohn/status/1392264844938723329

Anyone who launches an exploratory committee and isn’t running for POTUS is an absolute goober.