OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[If my soul was made of stone]

This thread should not have 16 (now 17) pages. This is not a competitive race.

I mean, the Kansas 2020 race got over 45 pages of discussion and we all know how that turned out

Kansas is at least trending towards competitiveness, if somewhat more slowly than ideal. Ohio hasn't been remotely worth observing since 2014 unless Sherrod Brown is involved.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This thread should not have 16 (now 17) pages. This is not a competitive race.

Anything can happen, democrats have won statewide in 2018. Atlasians just love to declare races non competive.

[MarkD]

I think too many posters in this thread are underestimating the Democrats' chances at flipping this seat. I think the Democratic Party in Ohio has a strong floor of at least 46% to work with -- all of their candidates in 2018 for state executive offices got at least that much. In the 16 races for the U.S. House, the Democrats collectively got a little over 47%. And I think the GOP is going to have poor voter turnout in 2022, because of Trump emphasizing his belief in massive voter fraud, causing a sizable portion of the GOP base to stay home out of distrust in the integrity of the election system. I expect there to be lower voter turnout in 2022 than there was in 2018 because of Trump poisoning his party's trust in the electoral process.

Plus, we don't know yet who will be the two nominees, or where will Biden's popularity be at by October 2022.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This thread should not have 16 (now 17) pages. This is not a competitive race.

I mean even if the general isn't competitive we're looking at potentially two highly contested primaries which'll be interesting

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This thread should not have 16 (now 17) pages. This is not a competitive race.

I mean even if the general isn't competitive we're looking at potentially two highly contested primaries which'll be interesting

Dems should not think that OH, FL and IA and NC aren't compete

Biden won them in 2008/12 as Veep

Our House races are in 50 states not 306, 279 or 278

1400 and more stimulus checks penetrate Red states too
We got to get to 218 in the House if we only concentrate on certain races we may fall short, FL and TX have Biden at 51 percent and they are netting 6 new districts that are in Latino Terroritories

As long as Biden keep giving out stimulus checks we should be fine

You see DeSANTIS is in trouble too

We netted TX seats in 2018 in Latino Districts

Don't pay attention to ratings, the Election is in 600 days

[MT Treasurer]

I think too many posters in this thread are underestimating the Democrats' chances at flipping this seat. I think the Democratic Party in Ohio has a strong floor of at least 46% to work with -- all of their candidates in 2018 for state executive offices got at least that much. In the 16 races for the U.S. House, the Democrats collectively got a little over 47%.

I don’t think anyone denies that OH Democrats have a somewhat high floor in massive Democratic wave years (of which 2018 was one), although I still disagree that Cordray's showing was the D floor in OH.

And I think the GOP is going to have poor voter turnout in 2022, because of Trump emphasizing his belief in massive voter fraud, causing a sizable portion of the GOP base to stay home out of distrust in the integrity of the election system.

There is literally zero evidence of this, to say nothing of the fact that Trump has made it clear that he will help the party retake Congress. He might not actually campaign for Republican candidates that much, but he’s not encourage his base to stay home.

Also, even a GA-type 'drop-off' in R turnout wouldn’t be enough to make OH or IA competitive.

Plus, we don't know yet who will be the two nominees, or where will Biden's popularity be at by October 2022.

The last time the party holding the White House picked up an open seat in a state it lost by nearly double digits in the last presidential election in a midterm election was... when? IN-SEN 1998 probably comes pretty close, but that’s pretty much it. It’s possible for Democrats to gain Senate seats if 2022 indeed turns out to be an 'atypical' midterm, but they’re not flipping anything beyond WI/PA/NC.

[prag_prog]

Based on whatever polling data I've seen so far, Dems best chance in this race seems to be Amy Action vs Mandel and even then, Dems have at max like 10% chance to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Based on whatever polling data I've seen so far, Dems best chance in this race seems to be Amy Action vs Mandel and even then, Dems have at max like 10% chance to win.

No they don't, stop being a naysayer

D's have to win OH since GA maybe a gonnwe

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think too many posters in this thread are underestimating the Democrats' chances at flipping this seat. I think the Democratic Party in Ohio has a strong floor of at least 46% to work with -- all of their candidates in 2018 for state executive offices got at least that much. In the 16 races for the U.S. House, the Democrats collectively got a little over 47%.

I don’t think anyone denies that OH Democrats have a somewhat high floor in massive Democratic wave years (of which 2018 was one), although I still disagree that Cordray's showing was the D floor in OH.

And I think the GOP is going to have poor voter turnout in 2022, because of Trump emphasizing his belief in massive voter fraud, causing a sizable portion of the GOP base to stay home out of distrust in the integrity of the election system.

There is literally zero evidence of this, to say nothing of the fact that Trump has made it clear that he will help the party retake Congress. He might not actually campaign for Republican candidates that much, but he’s not encourage his base to stay home.

Also, even a GA-type 'drop-off' in R turnout wouldn’t be enough to make OH or IA competitive.

Plus, we don't know yet who will be the two nominees, or where will Biden's popularity be at by October 2022.

The last time the party holding the White House picked up an open seat in a state it lost by nearly double digits in the last presidential election in a midterm election was... when? IN-SEN 1998 probably comes pretty close, but that’s pretty much it. It’s possible for Democrats to gain Senate seats if 2022 indeed turns out to be an 'atypical' midterm, but they’re not flipping anything beyond WI/PA/NC.

Why do you keep comparing Yrs Obama won by 6 and 4 pts and we won OH, FL, NC and IA in 2008/12

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I think too many posters in this thread are underestimating the Democrats' chances at flipping this seat. I think the Democratic Party in Ohio has a strong floor of at least 46% to work with -- all of their candidates in 2018 for state executive offices got at least that much. In the 16 races for the U.S. House, the Democrats collectively got a little over 47%. And I think the GOP is going to have poor voter turnout in 2022, because of Trump emphasizing his belief in massive voter fraud, causing a sizable portion of the GOP base to stay home out of distrust in the integrity of the election system. I expect there to be lower voter turnout in 2022 than there was in 2018 because of Trump poisoning his party's trust in the electoral process.

Plus, we don't know yet who will be the two nominees, or where will Biden's popularity be at by October 2022.

The floor for the Democrats is way lower than that. Probably the 37% Strickland got in 2016.

[Frenchrepublican]

This thread should not have 16 (now 17) pages. This is not a competitive race.

Anything can happen, democrats have won statewide in 2018. Atlasians just love to declare races non competive.

In 2018 democrats won 1 statewide race (and they lost 5), and it was the race where they had an incumbent and where the GOP candidate did not even bother to campaign, so I'm not sure that you should be brag about it.

Also it is unlikely that 2022 is going to be a D+8 year, contrary to 2018.

So yeah, this race is not really competitive.

[Frenchrepublican]

I think too many posters in this thread are underestimating the Democrats' chances at flipping this seat. I think the Democratic Party in Ohio has a strong floor of at least 46% to work with -- all of their candidates in 2018 for state executive offices got at least that much. In the 16 races for the U.S. House, the Democrats collectively got a little over 47%. And I think the GOP is going to have poor voter turnout in 2022, because of Trump emphasizing his belief in massive voter fraud, causing a sizable portion of the GOP base to stay home out of distrust in the integrity of the election system. I expect there to be lower voter turnout in 2022 than there was in 2018 because of Trump poisoning his party's trust in the electoral process.

Plus, we don't know yet who will be the two nominees, or where will Biden's popularity be at by October 2022.

This is the most absurd post I have read on this forum over the past three months. The Ohio democrats don't have a 46% floor, it's absurd, in 2020 House democrats got less than 43% of the statewide vote, in 2016 Strickland got 37% and in 2014 many democratic candidates were under 40%, the dem floor is probably around 38%, not 46%. 2018 was a great year for democrats and they largely overperformed their ''normal'' numbers in most states, pretending that Cordray  numbers are the real dem floor is absurd, it's like arguing that Gillespie 2014 numbers are the GOP floor in VA. The remaining part of your post is just some wishful thinking not backed by any data.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's unlikely that WI is gonna go R and many Rs have WI still going to Johnson and he is at 35 percent Approvals, lol Rs have lose state and federal Legislatures seats since they peaked in W8, MI and PA and that yr Trump won on Hillary and Gary Johnson

Lol, Acton is leading in the polls, let it be, let D's want to believe if they want, OH will eventually be won by D, Rs don't have a monopoly on OH, FL, IA and NC which was won in 2008/12

[It’s so Joever]

Spicy hot take: This senate race will be much closer than expected (although the GOPer will win in the end) and will trick Atlas into thinking Ohio is still a swing state in 2024.

Quote this in a year and a half.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Spicy hot take: This senate race will be much closer than expected (although the GOPer will win in the end) and will trick Atlas into thinking Ohio is still a swing state in 2024.

Quote this in a year and a half.

This.  Right now, Brown has about a 40% chance of winning.  However, that could easily go up or down quite a bit depending on several factors:

1) What does the national mood/Biden’s popularity look like? 

2) Who do Republicans nominate?  If it’s someone like Jordan, Davidson, Faber, or (albeit to a somewhat lesser degree) Bill Johnson then Brown is probably slightly favored all things being equal.  Someone like Dolan, Yost, Turner, Stivers, or LaRose would be a much tougher opponent.  Weinstrup, Joyce, Gibbs, or Sprague would probably be a wash.

3) Who is the Republican POTUS nominee?  If it’s Trump, then that’s bad for Brown.  If not then Brown may actually benefit from a less energized GOP base. 

4) What, if any, reversion to the norm is there w/o Trump in 2022 in places like Trumbull County if Tim Ryan is the Democratic nominee?

5) Does Brown’s campaign realize that he needs a new winning coalition compared to even 2018?  This one, at least, is probably a yes, so that’s good.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Acton or Ryan can be the next Senators

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I had a dream last night that Amy Acton lost the primary with around 12% of the vote and an older state senator white man won in a blowout.

The prophecy has been laid

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I also dreamed that Tim Ryan won the primary and Dems won the Senate got 53 votes with OH and NC without GA

WARNOCK is the most likely Senator to lose and substitute him with Tim Ryan and/ or Jackson, 53 is probably out max not 55 or 57 seats due to winning the PVI by 3.1 not 8

[BuckeyeNut]

The latest scuttlebutt is that Acton won't run at all. 314 Acton has been rather desperately trying to get her to run--having pledged $5 million in the primary if she does--and they've gotten nothing for it.

Planned Parenthood and NARAL have both said they won't support Acton if she does get in, given her execution of DeWine's pro-life policies as Director of the Ohio Department of Health, and she evidently blew off a meeting with EMILY's List.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think having Tim Ryan as the Senate candidate and someone like Kevin Boyce as the gubernatorial candidate would boost the fortunes of both.  Maybe not enough to push either over the finish line, but still...I like Ryan's odds a lot more if he's running alongside a complementary candidate for governor.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think having Tim Ryan as the Senate candidate and someone like Kevin Boyce as the gubernatorial candidate would boost the fortunes of both.  Maybe not enough to push either over the finish line, but still...I like Ryan's odds a lot more if he's running alongside a complementary candidate for governor.

Trust me, you don't want Boyce anywhere near the statewide ticket.  The guy is an Ed FitzGerald waiting to happen.  Of the folks who've been discussed as candidates, John Cranley seems like our best bet as insurance in case DeWine loses his primary to some clown like Renacci or even Warren Davidson.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think having Tim Ryan as the Senate candidate and someone like Kevin Boyce as the gubernatorial candidate would boost the fortunes of both.  Maybe not enough to push either over the finish line, but still...I like Ryan's odds a lot more if he's running alongside a complementary candidate for governor.

Trust me, you don't want Boyce anywhere near the statewide ticket.  The guy is an Ed FitzGerald waiting to happen.  Of the folks who've been discussed as candidates, John Cranley seems like our best bet as insurance in case DeWine loses his primary to some clown like Renacci or even Warren Davidson.

How about John Boccieri?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think having Tim Ryan as the Senate candidate and someone like Kevin Boyce as the gubernatorial candidate would boost the fortunes of both.  Maybe not enough to push either over the finish line, but still...I like Ryan's odds a lot more if he's running alongside a complementary candidate for governor.

Trust me, you don't want Boyce anywhere near the statewide ticket.  The guy is an Ed FitzGerald waiting to happen.  Of the folks who've been discussed as candidates, John Cranley seems like our best bet as insurance in case DeWine loses his primary to some clown like Renacci or even Warren Davidson.

How about John Boccieri?

Boccieri couldn’t even win his own state senate district in 2018, his career in elected office is over.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think having Tim Ryan as the Senate candidate and someone like Kevin Boyce as the gubernatorial candidate would boost the fortunes of both.  Maybe not enough to push either over the finish line, but still...I like Ryan's odds a lot more if he's running alongside a complementary candidate for governor.

Trust me, you don't want Boyce anywhere near the statewide ticket.  The guy is an Ed FitzGerald waiting to happen.  Of the folks who've been discussed as candidates, John Cranley seems like our best bet as insurance in case DeWine loses his primary to some clown like Renacci or even Warren Davidson.

How about John Boccieri?

Boccieri couldn’t even win his own state senate district in 2018, his career in elected office is over.

Man, Ohio Democrats are in sorry shape.  It's hard to even identify promising up-and-comers.  Yech!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't in sorry shape we have WI, NH and PA and GA, IA, FL, OH and NC as wave insurance

Tim Ryan is great candidate and can win and watch FL for backlash for Gaetz story

Tim Ryan is statistically tied with MANDEL