OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hogwash, anything can happen in 600 days, it's wave insurence like NC and GA are after NH, WI and PA

[WIResident]

If it's Timken Vs Ryan, I could see a path towards a D Win. If it's Vance vs Ryan or Mandel vs Ryan, Ds won't win.

I see it as the opposite, Timken would beat Ryan easily while Mandel and Vance would both struggle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Acton is leading Ryan in the primary, she is a better candidate, glad I didn't donate to Ryan yet, he is losing

I am confident that Fetterman and Jackson will win their primaries, Fetterman was confident on MSNBC he was gonna beat Keyenatta and he has been endorsed by Bob Casey Jr

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If it's Timken Vs Ryan, I could see a path towards a D Win. If it's Vance vs Ryan or Mandel vs Ryan, Ds won't win.

I see it as the opposite, Timken would beat Ryan easily while Mandel and Vance would both struggle.

Vance would struggle and is capable of blowing the race.  Mandel might win by an underwhelming margin (or not ) and Republicans might get tricked into wasting some money, but he’d almost certainly beat Ryan.

[ElectionsGuy]

Tim Ryan outperformed Biden in his district by 5.2% (winning by 8.6% vs Biden's 3.4%). If we carry that through the entire state (which is generous) he would've lost to a generic Republican opponent by 2.8% statewide in 2020. Not to mention, this race was thought to be "Safe D" so the Republican didn't receive any national attention. Why does anybody believe with that set of facts that Mandel or anybody would "struggle" against him?

[Left Wing]

Tim Ryan outperformed Biden in his district by 5.2% (winning by 8.6% vs Biden's 3.4%). If we carry that through the entire state (which is generous) he would've lost to a generic Republican opponent by 2.8% statewide in 2020. Not to mention, this race was thought to be "Safe D" so the Republican didn't receive any national attention. Why does anybody believe with that set of facts that Mandel or anybody would "struggle" against him?

I mean, I don’t think it will be competitive either, but Mandel did underperform Kasich by quite a bit in 2014 and Romney in 2012 by a couple points (though most of that was probably because of Sherrod Brown being an exceptional candidate) so I can see where people are coming from when they say Mandel is weak. Ryan v. Mandel is Democrats best scenario likely, but it would still take a D leaning environment which is unlikely to occur.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tim Ryan outperformed Biden in his district by 5.2% (winning by 8.6% vs Biden's 3.4%). If we carry that through the entire state (which is generous) he would've lost to a generic Republican opponent by 2.8% statewide in 2020. Not to mention, this race was thought to be "Safe D" so the Republican didn't receive any national attention. Why does anybody believe with that set of facts that Mandel or anybody would "struggle" against him?

Define “struggle.”  Mandel is an awful and pretty widely despised candidate.  There’s every reason to think he *might* win by an underwhelming margin if Ryan runs a strong campaign.  Now, if you mean “will Mandel lose to Ryan absent a ginormous Democratic wave and/or career-ending scandal,” then of course not.  However, I’d argue the latter is way too narrow a definition of “struggle” and it’s easy to imagine Republicans wasting some money here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tim Ryan outperformed Biden in his district by 5.2% (winning by 8.6% vs Biden's 3.4%). If we carry that through the entire state (which is generous) he would've lost to a generic Republican opponent by 2.8% statewide in 2020. Not to mention, this race was thought to be "Safe D" so the Republican didn't receive any national attention. Why does anybody believe with that set of facts that Mandel or anybody would "struggle" against him?

Define “struggle.”  Mandel is an awful and pretty widely despised candidate.  There’s every reason to think he *might* win by an underwhelming margin if Ryan runs a strong campaign.  Now, if you mean “will Mandel lose to Ryan absent a ginormous Democratic wave and/or career-ending scandal,” then of course not.  However, I’d argue the latter is way too narrow a definition of “struggle” and it’s easy to imagine Republicans wasting some money here.

Amy Acton is a good candidate and is leading Tim Ryan by 5, I am so glad I didn't rush to donate to Tim Ryan

[SnowLabrador]

There's literally no way this flips. Even against Donald Trump in 2020, in the best possible national environment for Democrats thanks to COVID, Dems couldn't even come close. Mandel (or the eventual R nominee) might be trailing in the polls, but they'll still win by at least 10 points in the general election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's literally no way this flips. Even against Donald Trump in 2020, in the best possible national environment for Democrats thanks to COVID, Dems couldn't even come close. Mandel (or the eventual R nominee) might be trailing in the polls, but they'll still win by at least 10 points in the general election.

The election is in 600 days, not today and Biden has a 54% Approvals, Sherrod Brown won when DeWine easily beat Cordray in 2018

Sen Amy Acton and I will donate to her, she has a 1/3 chance unlike in each state of WI and PA we have a 2/3 chance

Mandel isn't gonna win by 10 pts

[Frenchrepublican]

Tim Ryan outperformed Biden in his district by 5.2% (winning by 8.6% vs Biden's 3.4%). If we carry that through the entire state (which is generous) he would've lost to a generic Republican opponent by 2.8% statewide in 2020. Not to mention, this race was thought to be "Safe D" so the Republican didn't receive any national attention. Why does anybody believe with that set of facts that Mandel or anybody would "struggle" against him?

I mean, I don’t think it will be competitive either, but Mandel did underperform Kasich by quite a bit in 2014 and Romney in 2012 by a couple points (though most of that was probably because of Sherrod Brown being an exceptional candidate) so I can see where people are coming from when they say Mandel is weak. Ryan v. Mandel is Democrats best scenario likely, but it would still take a D leaning environment which is unlikely to occur.

Do you remember who was Kasich's opponent in 2014 ? Fitzgerald was one of the weakest democratic gubernatorial candidate of that year.

[Left Wing]

Tim Ryan outperformed Biden in his district by 5.2% (winning by 8.6% vs Biden's 3.4%). If we carry that through the entire state (which is generous) he would've lost to a generic Republican opponent by 2.8% statewide in 2020. Not to mention, this race was thought to be "Safe D" so the Republican didn't receive any national attention. Why does anybody believe with that set of facts that Mandel or anybody would "struggle" against him?

I mean, I don’t think it will be competitive either, but Mandel did underperform Kasich by quite a bit in 2014 and Romney in 2012 by a couple points (though most of that was probably because of Sherrod Brown being an exceptional candidate) so I can see where people are coming from when they say Mandel is weak. Ryan v. Mandel is Democrats best scenario likely, but it would still take a D leaning environment which is unlikely to occur.

Do you remember who was Kasich's opponent in 2014 ? Fitzgerald was one of the weakest democratic gubernatorial candidate of that year.

Well Mandel also underperformed the entire statewide GOP ticket, it was a pretty awful year for OH dems overall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowlabrador never thinks about a wave insurence, there are many opportunities to have a wave, it's not a 278 map it's a 50 state strategy

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

A bunch of polls dropped showing a tight race with a lot of undecided. Acton outperforms Tim Ryan and is ahead of Vance who seems to be the weekest republican.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1374145628129914887

[AncestralDemocrat.]

A bunch of polls dropped showing a tight race with a lot of undecided. Acton outperforms Tim Ryan and is ahead of Vance who seems to be the weekest republican.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1374145628129914887

PPP..

Junk it.

[Left Wing]

https://theintercept.com/2021/03/22/ohio-abortion-amy-acton/
I know it's the Intercept, but this could really be something Ryan could use to attack Acton on in the primary, if these polls sorta take away the electability argument. (Not that it matters for the general ofc)

[KaiserDave]

This race is Likely R closer to Safe than Lean, not worth any attention

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mandel is a weak opponent just like D's hoped

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is Likely R closer to Safe than Lean, not worth any attention

A wave is building, go Amy Acton, but Mandel is a weak opponent

A 54/46 is indeed possible WI, PA, NC and OH net seats, bye,bye Filibuster

[SnowLabrador]

I don't care what polling says, it's not happening.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://theintercept.com/2021/03/22/ohio-abortion-amy-acton/
I know it's the Intercept, but this could really be something Ryan could use to attack Acton on in the primary, if these polls sorta take away the electability argument. (Not that it matters for the general ofc)

I have it on good authority that if Acton gets in, which seems increasingly unlikely, neither Planned Parenthood nor NARAL will support her in the primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't care what polling says, it's not happening.

Wave insurance

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

A bunch of polls dropped showing a tight race with a lot of undecided. Acton outperforms Tim Ryan and is ahead of Vance who seems to be the weekest republican.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1374145628129914887

Hello false hope my old friend

[KaiserDave]

There's literally nothing to see here

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna win OH, Kaiser Dave is a Sherrod Brown supporter and he won OH 3x if he can do it so can Amy Acton or Tim Ryan can, just watch
.
Go Amy or Tim Ryan 🌊🌊🌊🌊 blue wave, evidently Kaiser Dave don't believe in waves don't forget Biden won 2008/12 OH, PA, IA, WI, FL and NC and even IN
.
That's why Obama stuck with Biden and now he is Prez

Don't forget Cranley and Crist and Downing can all win OH, FL and MA Govs even some D's like NY Express believe Baker can lose