OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am glad Jordan is out he has the same problem as D Hassert a wrestling sex scandal

[Progressive Pessimist]

Thank goodness that Jordan won't be in the Senate! I'm sure that whomever the inevitable Republican Senator ends up being won't be much better, but even a 1% improvement in sanity, when it comes to what the GOP has become, still makes a world of difference. It's a Roger Marshall situation.

[tosk]

Gomez also says she's being encouraged by the local Dem establishment, so bad news for Tim Ryan. Meanwhile on the GOP side...

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1354910436337061892

anyone have insights on timken?

[ProgressiveModerate]

God this is such an overrated race already. I guess it could flip if everything goes right for Democrats, as 2018 proves it’s still POSSIBLE for them to win in OH statewide, but does anyone seriously think they’ll flip a Senate seat in a Trump + 8 state that voted 13 points to the nation in an national in a Biden midterm?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

God this is such an overrated race already. I guess it could flip if everything goes right for Democrats, as 2018 proves it’s still POSSIBLE for them to win in OH statewide, but does anyone seriously think they’ll flip a Senate seat in a Trump + 8 state that voted 13 points to the nation in an national in a Biden midterm?

You keep saying a Biden midterm and it's only goes against Inc party when Prez Approvals are 40 percent we have two yrs to get the Economy back and D's are much better off in OH with Tim Ryan than with Val Deming's in FL

2018 Brown won in a Midterm Environment where Rs picked up MO, IN and ND, and DeWine was Elected Gov

Biden approvals are 52 Percent

If D's nominate Tim Ryan they will win James Harrison said he is putting money into Ohio

[ProgressiveModerate]

God this is such an overrated race already. I guess it could flip if everything goes right for Democrats, as 2018 proves it’s still POSSIBLE for them to win in OH statewide, but does anyone seriously think they’ll flip a Senate seat in a Trump + 8 state that voted 13 points to the nation in an national in a Biden midterm?

You keep saying a Biden midterm and it's only goes against Inc party when Prez Approvals are 40 percent we have two yrs to get the Economy back and D's are much better off in OH with Tim Ryan than with Val Deming's in FL

2018 Brown won in a Midterm Environment where Rs picked up MO, IN and ND, and DeWine was Elected Gov

Biden approvals are 52 Percent

If D's nominate Tim Ryan they will win James Harrison said he is putting money into Ohio

I’ve said there’s a lot of uncertainty, but OH-Sen flipping seems no more on the fringe end of outcomes than say CO-Sen flipping; if either flop the losing party is having a terrible night

[Neptunium]

God this is such an overrated race already. I guess it could flip if everything goes right for Democrats, as 2018 proves it’s still POSSIBLE for them to win in OH statewide, but does anyone seriously think they’ll flip a Senate seat in a Trump + 8 state that voted 13 points to the nation in an national in a Biden midterm?

This is atlas, how you expect from those who think 2022 would be Dem year?

[wbrocks67]

God this is such an overrated race already. I guess it could flip if everything goes right for Democrats, as 2018 proves it’s still POSSIBLE for them to win in OH statewide, but does anyone seriously think they’ll flip a Senate seat in a Trump + 8 state that voted 13 points to the nation in an national in a Biden midterm?

That was with Trump on the ticket. I'm not saying Dems have an amazing chance here, but as we've seen in many places, Trump being on the ticket matters. I'd like to see what the margins are like here when he's not.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gomez also says she's being encouraged by the local Dem establishment, so bad news for Tim Ryan. Meanwhile on the GOP side...

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1354910436337061892

anyone have insights on timken?

OH GOP chair, Harvard and American University Law, well connected and well liked by all factions of the party. I think she's the front runner for the seat.

I don't see what's so special about her. She's just a state chair. From what I understand these are rarely launching pads for Senate races.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Folks...

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1355327958790139910

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Folks...

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1355327958790139910

Even Harris was a better debater than Tim Ryan.

[Badger]

Gomez also says she's being encouraged by the local Dem establishment, so bad news for Tim Ryan. Meanwhile on the GOP side...

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1354910436337061892

anyone have insights on timken?

OH GOP chair, Harvard and American University Law, well connected and well liked by all factions of the party. I think she's the front runner for the seat.

I think it's between her and Mandel since Jordan isn't running. The latter was admittedly a big surprise to me , but I suppose he understands he has more capacity for inflicting the maximum amount of evil in the world likely taking over as house Judiciary chair in 2 years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jim Jordan isnt running due to fact he has a sex issue like Hassert does with wrestling, he is a terrible candidate other than for where he is at now. Users on this site need to realize that.

The Rs criticized Cunningham

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Gomez also says she's being encouraged by the local Dem establishment, so bad news for Tim Ryan. Meanwhile on the GOP side...

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1354910436337061892

anyone have insights on timken?

OH GOP chair, Harvard and American University Law, well connected and well liked by all factions of the party. I think she's the front runner for the seat.

I think it's between her and Mandel since Jordan isn't running. The latter was admittedly a big surprise to me , but I suppose he understands he has more capacity for inflicting the maximum amount of evil in the world likely taking over as house Judiciary chair in 2 years.

Eh, I’m admittedly not as in the loop as I used to be, but Timken seems like a generic Trumpist imo.  I doubt she gets very far if Davison runs (although she could be a spoiler).  Regardless of whether Timken runs or not, I think Mandel’s main competition will be from one of the House members still considering the race.  The nomination is probably still Stivers’ if he wants it and I could also see Warren Davison (a.k.a. bargain basement Jim Jordan) being a strong contender in the primary if he runs b/c without Jordan, he’s probably the best-positioned to out-Trumpist the other candidates.  I don’t see a path to the nomination for Dolan, especially if Mandel runs.

David Joyce is definitely interested although he might (rightly imo) decide he needs a more fractured primary field to win.  Bill Johnson is apparently also considering a run, but he has the Joyce problem of needing a clown-car primary field (although his path is a little less narrow than Joyce’s).  And that’s assuming LaRose, Yost, Faber (ROTFL) sit things out.

I do wonder what happens if Mandel doesn’t run.  He probably will, but I wonder if folks aren’t sleeping on that possibility a bit. 

As for the Dems, I think Tim Ryan missed his shot.  We’re better off running Dr. Acton or Nan Whaley for Senate (assuming Cordray is done with elected politics, if not then we should obviously run him) and then run John Cranley for Governor.  Cranley would be a great wave insurance candidate here, but IIRC he’s pretty set on running for Governor.

Tim Ryan could be LG (Whaley would be a better choice imo), but even then, his whole thing was supposed to be unique appeal to WWC voters in places like Trumbull, Mahoning, Portage, and to a lesser degree Summit counties.  He had an embarrassingly weak showing in 2020 against an unheralded C-list Trump cultist former state representative, so I don’t think he has any special appeal with those folks. 

Plus, IIRC, Ryan doesn’t have much money in his campaign accounts, so he doesn’t help there either.  At least Whaley is fairly popular in the biggest city of a competitive region.  At this point, Tim Ryan should probably be our nominee for Auditor since Faber is the weak link of the Republican row officers and if he’ll over-perform against anyone in NE Ohio, it’ll be against Faber. 

TL; DR: This starts off Likely R with the potential to shift to Lean R if the Republicans nominate a clown like Warren Davison.  Honestly, the Democrats probably need Jim Renacci or John Becker (LOL) to somehow win the Republican nomination to actually have a real chance of flipping, but I suppose it’s not impossible to imagine Warren Davison at least giving Republicans a scare if he’s the nominee (I doubt he’d actually lose though).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tim Ryan, I signed up for his emails fully intends on going for Senate, he said that if I donated during his campaign season, he will have the money to win the seat

We need Tim Ryan to run for this seat, a Betty Sutton candidate, lost many times already, eventhough I would welcome another female in the Senate

Tim Ryan wants the job of Senator

[tosk]

Gomez also says she's being encouraged by the local Dem establishment, so bad news for Tim Ryan. Meanwhile on the GOP side...

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1354910436337061892

anyone have insights on timken?

OH GOP chair, Harvard and American University Law, well connected and well liked by all factions of the party. I think she's the front runner for the seat.

I think it's between her and Mandel since Jordan isn't running. The latter was admittedly a big surprise to me , but I suppose he understands he has more capacity for inflicting the maximum amount of evil in the world likely taking over as house Judiciary chair in 2 years.

Eh, I’m admittedly not as in the loop as I used to be, but Timken seems like a generic Trumpist imo.  I doubt she gets very far if Davison runs (although she could be a spoiler).  Regardless of whether Timken runs or not, I think Mandel’s main competition will be from one of the House members still considering the race.  The nomination is probably still Stivers’ if he wants it and I could also see Warren Davison (a.k.a. bargain basement Jim Jordan) being a strong contender in the primary if he runs b/c without Jordan, he’s probably the best-positioned to out-Trumpist the other candidates.  I don’t see a path to the nomination for Dolan, especially if Mandel runs.

David Joyce is definitely interested although he might (rightly imo) decide he needs a more fractured primary field to win.  Bill Johnson is apparently also considering a run, but he has the Joyce problem of needing a clown-car primary field (although his path is a little less narrow than Joyce’s).  And that’s assuming LaRose, Yost, Faber (ROTFL) sit things out.

I do wonder what happens if Mandel doesn’t run.  He probably will, but I wonder if folks aren’t sleeping on that possibility a bit. 

As for the Dems, I think Tim Ryan missed his shot.  We’re better off running Dr. Acton or Nan Whaley for Senate (assuming Cordray is done with elected politics, if not then we should obviously run him) and then run John Cranley for Governor.  Cranley would be a great wave insurance candidate here, but IIRC he’s pretty set on running for Governor.

Tim Ryan could be LG (Whaley would be a better choice imo), but even then, his whole thing was supposed to be unique appeal to WWC voters in places like Trumbull, Mahoning, Portage, and to a lesser degree Summit counties.  He had an embarrassingly weak showing in 2020 against an unheralded C-list Trump cultist former state representative, so I don’t think he has any special appeal with those folks. 

Plus, IIRC, Ryan doesn’t have much money in his campaign accounts, so he doesn’t help there either.  At least Whaley is fairly popular in the biggest city of a competitive region.  At this point, Tim Ryan should probably be our nominee for Auditor since Faber is the weak link of the Republican row officers and if he’ll over-perform against anyone in NE Ohio, it’ll be against Faber. 

TL; DR: This starts off Likely R with the potential to shift to Lean R if the Republicans nominate a clown like Warren Davison.  Honestly, the Democrats probably need Jim Renacci or John Becker (LOL) to somehow win the Republican nomination to actually have a real chance of flipping, but I suppose it’s not impossible to imagine Warren Davison at least giving Republicans a scare if he’s the nominee (I doubt he’d actually lose though).

My first thought was about this davison:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djfDZrm9KZs&ab_channel=StephenGebhardt

but this is a very well thought out post. I'm hoping someone takes on madel in the primary. Timken I barely know anything about, but I'm a fan of Stivers.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1355346379170848768

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hillary calls on Tim Ryan to run for Portman seat

https://news.yahoo.com/hillary-clinton-calls-rep-tim-171518130.html

[Not Me, Us]

Is Mandel confirmed to be running? IIRC he dropped out of the 2018 race for some reason.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs know that they won't win with Mandel so they are trying to recruit a business donor especially if Tim Ryan enters the race, but if Tim Ryan runs it's a competetive race no matter what

[Blair]

Is Mandel confirmed to be running? IIRC he dropped out of the 2018 race for some reason.

He dropped out for health reasons relating to his wife but the buzzfeed article (earlier in this thread) said that they'd divorced.

[Suburbia]

Tim Ryan would be the best OHDP candidate that they have.

LeBron does not live in OH anymore, and even if he ran, he would lose rural Ohio badly.

[Bootes Void]

Tim Ryan would be the best OHDP candidate that they have.

LeBron does not live in OH anymore, and even if he ran, he would lose rural Ohio badly.

1.Well LeBron is still in the NBA for another 4-5 years anyway so he wouldn't be running
2. Rural Ohio is very heavily republican, most of the ancestral dem areas have fully switched
3. LeBron is well liked in Ohio. He bought the Cavaliers a championship and is a local hero
4. LeBron wouldn't do any worse in rural areas than most Dems anyway
5. If anything if he did run he might do better considering that he is not a politician and an outsider to politics. he is also a local celebrity so that would help. He has an inspiring life story so he might appeal to alot of working class folks.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I am glad Jordan is out he has the same problem as D Hassert a wrestling sex scandal

Gym Jordan.

[Calthrina950]

I am glad Jordan is out he has the same problem as D Hassert a wrestling sex scandal

Gym Jordan.

The difference between Jordan and Hastert is that Jordan is accused of covering up a team physician's sexual assaults, while Hastert was the assailant and paid hush money to silence his victims. Nevertheless, Jordan is an odious character, and I think he recognized that it would be easier for him to keep his Safe House seat then go for a potentially risky Senate bid (a bid which I think he still would have been the favorite for, unfortunately; Ohio is slipping away from Democrats).