Is South Carolina a future swing state?

[Motorcity]

Percentage wise, it’s the 7th most black state. It’s one of the fastest growing states. Obama was able to get 45% both in 2008 and 2012. Basically Georgia in 2012 levels. Some polls this year had Biden getting 47% but he only got 43%

Still, he did better than in Kansas and Alaska, and the forum keeps calling them future swing states.

Since 2010, South Carolina has gained roughly the same amount of people as Georgia despite only having half the population

I think it’ll become a swing states in 2028

[EastwoodS]

If big tech moves there, or snowbirds from the NE continue moving there maybe, buts it’s  also been pretty stagnant at ab 15-20 points right of the nation for awhile now. But right now, hoping SC will flip is like Republicans hoping Illinois flips, both could happen just can’t see a major trend at the moment. Except maybe Greenville or Rock Hill. But that’s canceled out by the Republicans moving to Myrtle Beach.

[TheReckoning]

South Carolina has been extremely inelastic for a while now. Here it is compared to the rest of the country since 1988, the year it arguably became safe for the GOP:

1988: R+16.2

1992: R+13.7

1996: R+14.6

2000: R+16.4

2004: R+14.6

2008: R+16.2

2012: R+14.3

2016: R+16.4

2020: R+16.1

You can blame this on “counteracting trends” or whatever, but honestly, it doesn’t show any clear trend anywhere. Both Republicans and Democrats have a lot of ground to gain and lose in the state, so while it might be competitive in the future, I have no idea where 2028 is coming from.

[lfromnj]

Its literally one of the few states that's getting more WHITE each year. .

[Roll Roons]

Maybe. Based on Biden's performance, Democrats may have some room to grow in Charleston, Berkeley, Beaufort, Dorchester, Greenville, York, Richland and Lexington. And like in most of the Deep South, Republicans have probably maxed out with rural whites.

But the problem for them is that a lot of the population growth is from conservative retirees moving to Horry County. At least for the next couple cycles, these trends will probably cancel each other out and largely keep the state where it is.

[EastwoodS]

Better question: I’m deeply curious to know if Beaufort county will stay red or what the margin will be in 2022 and 2024?

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

No, next question.

[Motorcity]

So, the consensus is that South Carolina is too inelastic to swing D. Because the population growth is coming from the other southern states unlike Georgia. Also because the minority population is actually decreasing and like Mississippi the white population is too far republican

So, does that make currently SC the democrats best state that they have no chance of winning in the near future?

[Tartarus Sauce]

Maybe. Based on Biden's performance, Democrats may have some room to grow in Charleston, Berkeley, Beaufort, Dorchester, Greenville, Richland and Lexington. And like in most of the Deep South, Republicans have probably maxed out with rural whites.

But the problem for them is that a lot of the population growth is from conservative retirees moving to Horry County. At least for the next couple cycles, these trends will probably cancel each other out and largely keep the state where it is.

Not to mention the conservative, evangelical influx into the Upland region.

[Xing]

Maybe a somewhat distant future one, since some states like AZ didn’t show too many signs of trending Democratic, and then it became a swing state in a hurry. I don’t see that happening for at least a couple of cycles in SC, though, and it might not happen.

[Roronoa D. Law]

My roots are originally from South Carolina so I think I can speak on this subject. All though I do find it hilarious that Kiawah and Seabrook Island arguably the richest communities in the state went from Trump+28 and Trump+15 to Trump respectively to Trump+5 and Trump+3.

Its literally one of the few states that's getting more WHITE each year. .

Yeah, but the white population moving in is more Democratic than the native white population. Charleston county is actually at its Whitest it been for a while and it voted for Biden by 13 points.

But the problem for them is that a lot of the population growth is from conservative retirees moving to Horry County. At least for the next couple cycles, these trends will probably cancel each other out and largely keep the state where it is.

Yep, Horry County is the problem. If it wasn't for its growth SC's trend wouldn't look so stagnant. The same problem is happening on the NC side. Greenville and York look like they're returning to earth from their Republican sugar high and might be competitive in the next decade.

Better question: I’m deeply curious to know if Beaufort county will stay red or what the margin will be in 2022 and 2024?

I doubt it will deviate more than 2 points either way. I'm not really familiar with the Beaufort area. IMO Berkley and Dorchester are more similar to other counties Democrats have flipped. The Charleston area is arguably the most expensive non-Florida metro in the South so I'm sure most newcomers are from more expensive Blue cities.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, GA is along with NC and FL. Jolly is gonna run as an indie and there won't be any D running and Rick Scott is vulnerable in 2024, it's still a future swing state

Forget TX, D's aren't wing TX

[TML]

As soon as I can see Democrats making serious inroads in upstate SC, that’s when I’ll consider this state purple. But as long as Republicans continue to win 60+% of the vote in this region overall, SC will remain a solid red state overall.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

People have been saying this for years now.