If Trump Lost in 2016...

[libertpaulian]

Does the GOP rebound in the suburbs in 2018?  Or is it still doomed, given the suburban leftward trend across the Anglosphere from the 2010s-present?

[VAR]

Trump losing in 2016 means President Hillary Clinton, which means 2018 would've been a Clinton midterm, so yes. It's not inconceivable that Rs might've done quite a bit worse than Romney in fast-growing suburbs (e.g. Tarrant, Cobb, Gwinnett Counties), though. I mean, they would've certainly underperformed Romney in my region (NoVA) because I doubt Hillary would've been that unpopular here.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Yes, in 2016, Trump was viewed as an aberration.  In many suburbs that swung against Trump, downballot Republicans in 2016 met or even exceeded Romney's numbers.  Many still viewed Trump as distinct from the Republican Party.  I don't know what 2020 would have looked like, but there's no guarantee that the GOP wouldn't still be in the 70s here in Williamson County, for instance.

I am of the belief that there's still some level of this phenomenon in many suburbs.  It won't mean 2012 numbers anymore, but I could see the suburbs looking more like 2016 than 2020 in 2024.

[It’s so Joever]

You should compare the downballot races to the downballot races, trends lag in downballot races compared to presidential races and that is well documented.

[dw93]

It depends on what they do after a Trump lost. If Trump loses by Romney 2012 or McCain 2008 margins, than I think after three consecutive decisive losses, they dump the nationalism/tea party stuff and go back to a pre 2008 Republicanism (or even better a pre 1994 Republicanism) and win them back handily. If it's a close loss, I think the GOP, in one form or another, continues to go off the rails as they did under Trump, and at best only win a handful of the burbs back while maintaining rural strength.

[Chips]

The GOP wins huge in 2018 and then wins the 2020 election comfortably is my guess.

[Skill and Chance]

It would get slowed down like it did in 2012, but still continue in the long run.

[Agonized-Statism]

The Republican decline in the suburbs would likely continue. There are long-term demographic shifts at play, and politics would look pretty similar anyway. Either Trump would run again in 2020 or the party would continue the trajectory it had been on from the Tea Party to Trump under some new banner, maybe having to do with anti-masking and anti-vaxxing.

[Del Tachi]

Republicans would have seen a big win that would have resulted in most of their suburban incumbents (i.e., Roskam, Coffman, Comstock, etc.) being reelected, but those districts would have trended Democrat relative to the national environment.  Suburbs swung much less R in 2010 than rural/exurban seats, too.