MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« on: January 24, 2021, 08:24:33 PM » |
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Yes, and by a slightly wider PV margin than in 2020 (holds WI/MI/PA, flips NE-02, FL is a razor-thin margin either way but my guess would be Biden, AZ and NC are Trump +1 or so). Popularity levels still matter, and Trump was significantly more unpopular in 2016 than in 2020 (while having none of the strategic benefits of presidential incumbency) while Biden did not generate the kind of intense hatred among large parts of the electorate as Clinton, who was historically unpopular for a Democratic nominee. The fact that Clinton kept it this close in 2016 only proves how beatable Trump was. Not everything has to fit into some overarching narrative of a 'populist backlash.'
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