Biden vs. Trump 2016
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  Biden vs. Trump 2016
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Author Topic: Biden vs. Trump 2016  (Read 407 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: January 22, 2021, 05:50:45 PM »

Does Biden win?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2021, 06:11:44 PM »
« Edited: January 22, 2021, 06:45:50 PM by Alben Barkley »

Yes. Probably the 2012 map minus OH and IA. Maybe FL.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2021, 06:20:38 PM »

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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2021, 06:33:52 PM »



Joe Biden/Elizabeth Warren 50%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 47%
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2021, 07:46:36 PM »

Biden would have won.  Trump would have won FL, but Biden would have won PA, WI, and MI.  2016 was before he celebrated his first week of the Presidency by putting thousands of members of a union that endorsed him in 2020 out of work.

I would have voted for him, too.  I would have regretted it later.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2021, 08:24:33 PM »

Yes, and by a slightly wider PV margin than in 2020 (holds WI/MI/PA, flips NE-02, FL is a razor-thin margin either way but my guess would be Biden, AZ and NC are Trump +1 or so). Popularity levels still matter, and Trump was significantly more unpopular in 2016 than in 2020 (while having none of the strategic benefits of presidential incumbency) while Biden did not generate the kind of intense hatred among large parts of the electorate as Clinton, who was historically unpopular for a Democratic nominee. The fact that Clinton kept it this close in 2016 only proves how beatable Trump was. Not everything has to fit into some overarching narrative of a 'populist backlash.'
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