Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[kaoras]

Current JCP strength in Tokyo assembly seems totally unsustainable (although they always seem to overperform in Tokyo prefecturals). With how many seats you think they will end up with, will they work with CDP?

[kaoras]

You have said that the Tokyo prefecture election is very prestigious. I know that this is probably a stretch but do you know what was the reaction to JCP placing second in the 1997 election?

[kaoras]

Are Tokyo Shimbun and JX using a different methodology or something? It seems weird that they apparently don't have "shy JCP voters" (those are really high vote shares right?) but they are still under polling Komeito.

[kaoras]

Meguro City (目黒区) is the only district left that KP has a seat uncalled.  It is 3 members and right now the count is TPFA KP JCP CDP LDP LDP.  Most likely KP will win for a clean sweep of 23 seat and defying exit polls.

In 北多摩三 3 member (Kitatama?) district NHK and Yomiuri still haven't called the final seat between JCP and KP. JCP candidate is actually second on what's counted so far.

[kaoras]

Current 3- member Meguro City (目黒区) is pretty comical. With 95% of the vote in it is

TPFA    23.51%
KP       16.72%
JCP      16.51%
CDP     16.20%
LDP     13.90%
LDP     10.45%

Many thought that the LDP made a mistake in nominating 2 candidate and will miss out the top 3.  It was always assumed the top 3 would be JCP KP TPFA with CDP voters tactically voting for JCP.  It seems CDP tactical voting for JCP did not take place but that did not hand LDP a seat.  In fact the 2 LDP candidate were pushed to 5th and 6th with TPFA clearly eating into LDP votes.  CDP and JCP now pose the greatest danger to KP holding its last and 23rd seat.

Apparently CDP won the final seat with 6 votes difference against JCP. I wonder if Japan has recounts or someting.

[kaoras]

Even if Suga manages to stay on for the elections, isn't almost sure that he will be kicked out mid-term? What incentives does he have to stay on?

[kaoras]

Considering that most japanese don't want the LDP to actually lose, could this result scare them into voting LDP?

[kaoras]

Another longshot seat for JCP I heard was Tokyo 12th. A pro-JCP guy I know said it was closer in polling than Kyoto 1st