Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Okinawa-4 is tied, lol.

[Lachi]

Holy sh**t, the LDP leaked polling was right, Ozawa is actually in trouble in Iwate 3

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

(NHK)
No points for seeing which preferecture is Osaka here.

[jaichind]

My result chart so far which is a union of NHK and Ashai calls

           District         PR          Total                 
LDP          129            64          193         
KP               6            18            24             
JRP            15            16            31             
DPP             6              2              8             
CDP           24            33            57           
RS              0              0              0           
SDP            1              0              1             
JCP             1              8              9             
Ind.          10                              8  (4 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP?)
--------------------------------------------------
              191            141         332
       (98 uncalled)  (35 uncalled)         
 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a website to follow the official count?

[jaichind]

Is there a website to follow the official count?

https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/shugiin/2021/
https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/shuinsen/

[jaichind]

Now it really downs down to the large number of LDP-CDP marginals which will take some time to count and figure who won.

[jaichind]

In 東京(Tokyo) 8th in seems CDP takes it over LDP's Ishihara who heads up the small Ishihara faction.

[Lachi]

CDP down to only 4 seats in Aichi, including losing two in Nagoya itself

[Logical]

JRP has a good chance of winning a district seat outside Osaka, most likely in Hyogo. There are 4 seats there where they are ahead on exits or just behind.

[jaichind]

CDP seems to be underperforming in 北海道(Hokkaido).  A lot of what I would consider safe seats are not called yet.

[jaichind]

It seems the JRP PR vote is fairly large and they are decisive in deciding who wins in the marginals. So far the pattern seems to be: if the main alternative to LDP is a non-CDP candidate they vote for that non-LDP candidate. If the alternative to LDP is CDP then they split the vote or even lean LDP.  A lot of what many would consider safe CDP is not called must be because of this.

[Mike88]

The seats that are left to count are more aligned with the Government or the Opposition? Or are they too close to call? Because, the results so far, 212-97, look pretty good for the LDP-Komeito government.

[jaichind]

The seats that are left to count are more aligned with the Government or the Opposition? Or are they too close to call? Because, the results so far, 212-97, look pretty good for the LDP-Komeito government.

Most of the uncalled seats lean CDP in pre-election projections.   You can read that as CDP will get a bunch of seats to come OR LDP is doing better than CDP in the marginals.  The pre-election CW was that CDP will win more of the marginals.  What we can say this them not called is that there is no LDP meltdown.  LDP seems in good shape to win 233 seats for the majority unless these marginals lean CDP in the count to come.

[Mike88]

The seats that are left to count are more aligned with the Government or the Opposition? Or are they too close to call? Because, the results so far, 212-97, look pretty good for the LDP-Komeito government.

Most of the uncalled seats lean CDP in pre-election projections.   You can read that as CDP will get a bunch of seats to come OR LDP is doing better than CDP in the marginals.  The pre-election CW was that CDP will win more of the marginals.  What we can say this them not called is that there is no LDP meltdown.  LDP seems in good shape to win 233 seats for the majority unless these marginals lean CDP in the count to come.

Right. A lot of seats yet to count or be projected, around 100.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Did the Rengo vote in Aichi go more LDP than expected?

[jaichind]

Did the Rengo vote in Aichi go more LDP than expected?

I suspect so.  On paper, CDP should be sweeping Aichi but I projected that LDP will overperform.  Not clear by how much.  May be more than I had expected.

[jaichind]

My result chart so far is a union of NHK and Ashai calls.  Not much changed

           District         PR          Total                
LDP          131            64          195        
KP               6            18            24            
JRP            15            16            31            
DPP             6              2              8            
CDP           25            33            58          
RS              0              0              0          
SDP            1              0              1            
JCP             1              8              9            
Ind.          10                              8  (4 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP)
--------------------------------------------------
              194            141         335
       (95 uncalled)  (35 uncalled)        

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Did the Rengo vote in Aichi go more LDP than expected?

I suspect so.  On paper, CDP should be sweeping Aichi but I projected that LDP will overperform.  Not clear by how much.  May be more than I had expected.

Which seats have the biggest "Rengo vote"? Aichi-11?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

CDP down to only 4 seats in Aichi, including losing two in Nagoya itself

Why did this happen ?

[Lachi]

CDP down to only 4 seats in Aichi, including losing two in Nagoya itself

Why did this happen ?

Rengo mostly

[jaichind]

Another surprise.  Pro-DPP independent wins 京都(Kyoto) 5th.  The LDP was expected to win due to JCP being in the fray.  As the campaign ended this seat was being viewed as more competitive.  It seems the JRP vote shifted over to him to defeat the incumbent.

[jaichind]

Did the Rengo vote in Aichi go more LDP than expected?

I suspect so.  On paper, CDP should be sweeping Aichi but I projected that LDP will overperform.  Not clear by how much.  May be more than I had expected.

Which seats have the biggest "Rengo vote"? Aichi-11?

I guess so in the sense that the pro-DPP incumbent was very close to Rengo and retired last minute to protest the CDP-JCP alliance.  The Opposition had no time to get a good candidate in there and the LDP wiins easily.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CDP down to only 4 seats in Aichi, including losing two in Nagoya itself

Why did this happen ?

CDP ran in alliance with the JCP. The JCP and Rengo are very different politically.

[jaichind]

I guess not much will take place for a while until the votes are actually counted