Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASPBT533HPBHUZPS003.html

Asahi projection finally come out and it is very positive for LDP.  It has LDP potentially hitting 261 seats.  Reading their superficial writeup you can construct this rough chart

             District         PR          Total
LDP          190            70          260
KP               8            21            29
JRP            10            19            29
DPP             4              4              8
CDP           65            49          114
RS              0              1              1
SDP            1              0              1
JCP             1             12           13
Ind.           10                            10 (5 pro-LDP 5 pro-Opposition?)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

Roughly the same as Mainichi on the district seats but more pro-LDP on the PR seats.  This projection, I feel, is more consistent than Mainichi.  Mainichi had a large LDP win in district seats but doing poorly on the PR slate which I find hard to believe.  The projection has a solid LDP performance on the PR slate and with likely pro-LDP tactical voting from JRP PR voters gives LDP a solid win on the district seats.

One criticism for this poll is their district seat projection is all internet-based polls.  If so given the youth bais in favor of LDP it will overestimate LDP. 

Hopefully, they release seat by seat details.

[jaichind]

Asahi also boldly proclaims that 岩手(Iwate) 3rd (Ozawa's district) and 宮城(Miyagi) 5th (CDP incumbent win 63% of the vote in 2017) are very close.  At least for 岩手(Iwate) 3rd it seems to match that LDP leaked poll from early Oct.  Still all the other media polls have both seats as solidly in the opposition camp.

[Logical]

New NHK poll out (Oct 22-24)

Party ID (changes from Oct 15-17 poll)
LDP     38.6 (-0.2)
KP        4.3 (+0.5)
CDP      8.0 (+1.2)
JCP       2.9 (+0.1)
JRP       3.5 (+1.2)
DPP      0.8 (-0.2)
RS        0.8 (+0.2)
SDP      0.7 (+0.1)
NP        0.2 (+0.1)
None   31.4 (-4.8 )

Cabinet approvals
Approve      48 (+2)
Disapprove  27 (-1)

Already voted           9
Will definitely vote   52
Total                       61 (+5)

Implies turnout will be around 57-60%.
Interesting crosstabs on the turnout question; 68% of LDP-KP supporters, 78% of Opposition supporters and 47% of independents answered "Will definitely vote" or "Voted early". Shows that the opposition base is more enthused this time.

[Logical]

For some reason Asahi usually releases the best projections for the LDP while Yomiuri and Nikkei does the opposite.

[jaichind]

For some reason Asahi usually releases the best projections for the LDP while Yomiuri and Nikkei does the opposite.

Was going to write about this.  It happens in almost every election.  The right-wing media (Nikkei, Yomiuri, FNN) always have the most anti-LDP projections while the left-wing media (Kyodo, Mainichi, Asahi) always have the most pro-LDP projection.

This is because of
a) Mostly overcompensation for house effects 
b) Perhaps try to create a sense of crisis in the minds of their readers so they go out and out and vote although I think it usually has the opposite effect for anti-LDP voters

There is a story from the 2014 Lower House election that shows b) is unlikely to be a big factor.  After the Ashai people crunched their numbers which shows a LDP landslide victory the editor of Ashai was so depressed that he considered not printing the projection and had to be talked into it by his staff.

[jaichind]

Asahi also boldly proclaims that 岩手(Iwate) 3rd (Ozawa's district) and 宮城(Miyagi) 5th (CDP incumbent win 63% of the vote in 2017) are very close.  At least for 岩手(Iwate) 3rd it seems to match that LDP leaked poll from early Oct.  Still all the other media polls have both seats as solidly in the opposition camp.

Oh, they also has CDP leader Edano neck to neck in his own 埼玉(Saitama) 5th district.  Am, sorry, while I agree never say never but it is very unlikely Edano is anywhere close to neck-to-neck in his district.

[jaichind]

NHK polls on "Certain to vote" have moved from 52% 3 weeks before the election to 61% one week before the election.   60-70- age range surged the most from 55 to 68.  This age group is the most anti-LDP.  18-29 age group only rose from 25 to 28 which is a problem for LDP as that is the most pro-LDP age group (along with 70+).

[CumbrianLefty]

Over-70s are the most pro-LDP, but 60-70 year olds the most anti? How does that work exactly??

[Tintrlvr]

Over-70s are the most pro-LDP, but 60-70 year olds the most anti? How does that work exactly??

My understanding is that a lot of it has to do with the crash in the early 1990s. People who are now in their 50s and 60s were affected the worst by the crash happening just as they were starting their careers and have consistently much less wealth and lower peak career achievement than people in their 70s and older, many of whom made fortunes in the 1980s. The LDP is also especially inclined to cater to the interests of pensioners, and not so many Japanese retire before 70.

The more questionable idea is that the young people are especially inclined to support the LDP. It's true that those 18-29 year olds who vote are less anti-LDP than, say 50-59-year-olds, mainly due to nationalist issues like amending the Constitution. But turnout among young voters is absolutely dreadful in Japan (much worse than in any Western democracy), and it's unclear that the voters would be representative of the non-voters if the non-voters actually started to turn out.

[jaichind]

Over-70s are the most pro-LDP, but 60-70 year olds the most anti? How does that work exactly??

Frankly, I am not sure why this is.  I would say that LDP is strong with youth, middle-aged, and very old.  For middle-aged people, JRP has cut into both LDP and Center-Left Opposition support so that age group is not a strength for LDP anymore.  The youth are conformist and attracted to a party with a vision. LDP under Abe gives them both.  The very old are more about people that grew up under LDP domination.  And I guess for the old but not very old they came of age at an era when the LDP was beginning to decline so they align more with the Center-Left Opposition.

[kaoras]

Another longshot seat for JCP I heard was Tokyo 12th. A pro-JCP guy I know said it was closer in polling than Kyoto 1st

[jaichind]

Another longshot seat for JCP I heard was Tokyo 12th. A pro-JCP guy I know said it was closer in polling than Kyoto 1st

Correct.  Both are long shots though.  One can argue about which one is the longer shot

The case for Kyoto 1st is: its LDP vs JRP vs JCP which is good for JCP as the anti-JCP vote is split.  Also the LDP incumbent is stepping down which takes away the incumbent advantage for LDP

The case for Tokyo 12th is similar: it is KP vs JRP vs JCP which is good for JCP as the anti-JCP vote is split. The KP incumbent is stepping down which takes away the incumbent advantage for KP

The dynamic of KP is interesting.  On the one hand, the social stigma of KP is just as large if not larger than JCP which makes a case for Tokyo 12th since one would expect many LDP voters to vote JRP or even JCP over KP.  On the flip side, KP also can appeal to CDP and DPP voters who are turned off by LDP so the JCP cannot count all of  CDP supporters to vote JCP.  Also, Tokyo Rengo came out in favor of KP in this case which means whatever  DPP vote is out there will be voting for KP.

[jaichind]

More detailed Asahi projections




If you take the median of their projection ranges you get

             District         PR          Total
LDP          193            71          264
KP               8            23            31
JRP            13            19            32
DPP             5              3              8
CDP           62            45          107
RS              0              1              1
SDP            1              0              1
JCP             1             14           15
Ind.            6                             6 (3 pro-LDP 3 pro-Opposition?)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

Most favorable LDP projection to date.

[jaichind]

JX PR poll (change from a week ago)


                              2021 poll           2019          2017
LDP                         32.0 (-1.1)         35.4           33.3
KP                            8.4 (+1.8 )       13.1           12.5
PNHK                        0.9 (+0.4)         2.0
JRP                         12.3 (+3.3)         9.8              6.1
DPP                          2.4 (-0.2)          7.0            17.4
CDP                        21.3 (+0.3)       15.8            19.9
RS                            1.6 (+0.2)         4.6
SDP                          1.4 (+0.1)         2.1              1.7
JCP                           7.6 (-0.6)          9.0              7.9

LDP-KP                   40.4(+0.7)        48.5             45.8
Center Left-JCP        34.3(-0.2)        38.5             46.9 (if we count 2017 HP as Center-Left)

The real winner of the week seems to be JRP which had a huge surge to 12.3.  If you take into account the 2017 HP -> JRP move then 2021 seems to be closer to 2017 than 2019.  Still, LDP-KP gained ground relative to Center Left-JCP United Opposition.

[Logical]

Turnout by age in 2017, for reference.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Turnout by age in 2017, for reference.

30% for 20-24 is almost surprisingly high.
Why the huge drop from 75-79 to 80-84?
(It's almost as bad as the DPJ's seat fall from 2009 to 2012 )

[jaichind]

Sankei(FNN) projection

LDP           237
KP              26 !!!! (this sounds like a disaster for KP)
JRP            30
DPP             6
CDP          136
RS               1
SDP             2 (they won a PR seat)
JCP            17
Ind.           10 (5 pro-LDP 5 anti-LDP?)

Too bad they did not break out the seat projections by district and PR

[Logical]

For some reason Asahi usually releases the best projections for the LDP while Yomiuri and Nikkei does the opposite.

Was going to write about this.  It happens in almost every election.  The right-wing media (Nikkei, Yomiuri, FNN) always have the most anti-LDP projections while the left-wing media (Kyodo, Mainichi, Asahi) always have the most pro-LDP projection.

This is because of
a) Mostly overcompensation for house effects  
b) Perhaps try to create a sense of crisis in the minds of their readers so they go out and out and vote although I think it usually has the opposite effect for anti-LDP voters

There is a story from the 2014 Lower House election that shows b) is unlikely to be a big factor.  After the Ashai people crunched their numbers which shows a LDP landslide victory the editor of Ashai was so depressed that he considered not printing the projection and had to be talked into it by his staff.

A theory from me. The respondents are purposely trolling the media companies. At the start of every survey the survey taker would say for which news media the survey taken for. When an LDP inclined media company is listed, opposition supporters would exaggerate their likelihood to vote and is more motivated to complete the survey until the end to "own the cons" so to speak. This works both ways. It could explain why the error is so persistent throughout the years.

[jaichind]

For some reason Asahi usually releases the best projections for the LDP while Yomiuri and Nikkei does the opposite.

Was going to write about this.  It happens in almost every election.  The right-wing media (Nikkei, Yomiuri, FNN) always have the most anti-LDP projections while the left-wing media (Kyodo, Mainichi, Asahi) always have the most pro-LDP projection.

This is because of
a) Mostly overcompensation for house effects  
b) Perhaps try to create a sense of crisis in the minds of their readers so they go out and out and vote although I think it usually has the opposite effect for anti-LDP voters

There is a story from the 2014 Lower House election that shows b) is unlikely to be a big factor.  After the Ashai people crunched their numbers which shows a LDP landslide victory the editor of Ashai was so depressed that he considered not printing the projection and had to be talked into it by his staff.

A theory from me. The respondents are purposely trolling the media companies. At the start of every survey the survey taker would say for which news media the survey taken for. When an LDP inclined media company is listed, opposition supporters would exaggerate their likelihood to vote and is more motivated to complete the survey until the end to "own the cons" so to speak. This works both ways. It could explain why the error is so persistent throughout the years.

I doubt this theory.  As I mentioned before the source of all these projections is just one mega poll, most likely being done by local media on behalf of the national media outlets.  In order words the pollers is most likely to identify themselves as the local media so there is no chance for those being polled to troll the pollester.

[jaichind]

Turnout by age in 2017, for reference.

30% for 20-24 is almost surprisingly high.
Why the huge drop from 75-79 to 80-84?
(It's almost as bad as the DPJ's seat fall from 2009 to 2012 )

One theory.  If the 80-84 bloc is really 80+ so many people in this bloc will not be able to vote for medical reasons.  Also, the reality is that some of the 80+ people are already dead.  This seems to be a scam in Japan where the families of very old people would not announce their death when they died so they can continue to collect the national pension payment (up to $8000 a person a year) on behalf of their elderly parent.  Since voting is in person (including early voting) then turnout of this group will be artificially low. 

[Tintrlvr]

Turnout by age in 2017, for reference.

30% for 20-24 is almost surprisingly high.
Why the huge drop from 75-79 to 80-84?
(It's almost as bad as the DPJ's seat fall from 2009 to 2012 )

One theory.  If the 80-84 bloc is really 80+ so many people in this bloc will not be able to vote for medical reasons.  Also, the reality is that some of the 80+ people are already dead.  This seems to be a scam in Japan where the families of very old people would not announce their death when they died so they can continue to collect the national pension payment (up to $8000 a person a year) on behalf of their elderly parent.  Since voting is in person (including early voting) then turnout of this group will be artificially low.  

Japan is also not very good about purging its voter and other statistical rolls for the deceased generally. But I think the main factor is that Japan has no ability to vote by mail at all unless you have a very specific dispensation granted extremely sparingly to only the most severely disabled, which means that many mobility-impaired elderly voters just don't get to vote.

There was some discussion about expanding mail-in voting earlier this year, but I'm not sure whether it ended up happening. Even then, the discussion was mainly around whether those who were quarantining for COVID/exposure at the time of the election could get a special allowance to vote by mail just this one time or whether it was just too bad, so sad, they can't vote. So the Japanese attitude to mail voting is unlikely to change radically any time soon.

[jaichind]

5 days into early voting turnout is at 5.37% which easily beats 2017.  There has been a trend toward more early voting so I am not sure this necessarily means a higher turnout than 2017.  Of course there was a storm coming election day in 2017 which also artificially pushed up early voting. So 2021 early voting exceeds 2017 then turnout for sure will exceed 2017.

[Continential]

What would be the best and worst case scenarios for the LDP and the CDP, (and some minor parties/rebels/groups if you are willing to elaborate)?

[jaichind]

What would be the best and worst case scenarios for the LDP and the CDP, (and some minor parties/rebels/groups if you are willing to elaborate)?

If you go by the media outlets projections then best/worst case scenarios would be something like

LDP      225-265
KP         26-32
DPP         6-9
JRP        28-33
CDP     115-150
JCP        14-18

[jaichind]

Of course the Asahi and FNN projections are contradictory.




Asahi LDP  251-279
FNN  LDP   218-246

Asahi CDP    94-120
FNN   CDP  126-151

The 静岡(Shizuoka) by-election results over the weekend seem to imply the FNN is more likely to be true.  One way or another these two projections do not jive.