Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I had to ask myself, "who is this Youtuber?"
So I put 'Yamaguchi House of Councilors special election" in Google Translate and searched what I got.
https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/%E3%81%B8%E3%81%9A%E3%81%BE%E3%82%8A%E3%82%85%E3%81%86
What a truly wild character. No wonder PNHK was the party that nominated him...

[jaichind]

I had to ask myself, "who is this Youtuber?"
So I put 'Yamaguchi House of Councilors special election" in Google Translate and searched what I got.
https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/%E3%81%B8%E3%81%9A%E3%81%BE%E3%82%8A%E3%82%85%E3%81%86
What a truly wild character. No wonder PNHK was the party that nominated him...

Yes, I looked him up last night.  His videos are wild absurd and to many offensives.  On the other hand he has over 1 million subscribers.  He is really not a fit for 山口(Yamaguchi).  PNHK should have ran him in a prefecture with a greater youth profile.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election (18% of the vote counted) (still mostly rural, some urban vote)
LDP-KP                         47.3%
CDP-DPP independent    41.0%
JCP                              11.7%

Once more urban votes come in this will shift


山口(Yamaguchi) Upper House by-election (29% of the vote counted) (mostly rural some urban votes)
LDP-KP                         78.5%
JCP                               19.7%
PNHK                              1.7% (famous Youtuber for childish practical jokes)

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election (46% of the vote counted) (urban vote beginning to come in in sizable numbers)
LDP-KP                         45.9%
CDP-DPP independent    44.3%
JCP                                9.8%

Over CDP-DPP backed independent overtaking LDP-KP will take place soon
 
山口(Yamaguchi) Upper House by-election (61% of the vote counted) (mostly rural some urban votes)
LDP-KP                         73.4%
JCP                               24.6%
PNHK                              2.0% (famous Youtuber for childish practical jokes)

Converging toward exit polls

[Lachi]

NHK has called it for Yamazaki

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election (64% of the vote counted) 
LDP-KP                         46.5%
CDP-DPP independent    44.5%
JCP                                9.0%

NHK calls it for CDP-DPP backed independent despite him being behind in the count as a lot of the outstanding vote are from urban Westen part of the prefecture
 
山口(Yamaguchi) Upper House by-election (70% of the vote counted) (mostly rural some urban votes)
LDP-KP                         72.6%
JCP                               25.5%
PNHK                              1.8% (famous Youtuber for childish practical jokes)

Converging toward exit polls

[CascadianIndy]

https://twitter.com/oohamazaki/status/1452273410600439808

NHK calls it for YAMAZAKI, the CDP+DPFP endorsed Independent in the Shizuoka Upper House by-election.



Who wants to take bets on how many knives are sticking out of Kishida's back two weeks from now?

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/oohamazaki/status/1452273410600439808

NHK calls it for YAMAZAKI, the CDP+DPFP endorsed Independent in the Shizuoka Upper House by-election.



Who wants to take bets on how many knives are sticking out of Kishida's back two weeks from now?

After FL 2000 the USA media no longer has the guts like the Japanese media to call a race even if the projected winner is behind on the official count.

[Lachi]

and there it is, Yamazaki takes the lead

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election (77% of the vote counted)
CDP-DPP independent    45.8% (called by NHK as winner)
LDP-KP                         45.5%
JCP                                8.7%

CDP-DPP backed independent takes the lead

山口(Yamaguchi) Upper House by-election (91% of the vote counted) 
LDP-KP                         74.9%
JCP                               23.5%
PNHK                              1.6% (famous Youtuber for childish practical jokes)

The PNHK candidate totally bombs.  He ran in the wrong prefecture.  He would do much better in Tokyo.

[jaichind]

It seems the LDP candidate in 静岡(Shizuoka) is likely to beat the exit polls by 1%-2% so the result I guess is not as disastrous for LDP as when the exit polls came out.  Still very bad and they must be worried about next Sunday.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election (93% of the vote counted)
CDP-DPP independent    46.4% (called by NHK as the winner)
LDP-KP                         45.2%
JCP                                8.5%

I expect the lead to widen by another 1%-2% as the remaining votes are all heavy lean CDP-DPP backed independent areas

山口(Yamaguchi) Upper House by-election (91% of the vote counted)
LDP-KP                         74.9%
JCP                               23.5%
PNHK                              1.6% (famous Youtuber for childish practical jokes)

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll by party support in 静岡(Shizuoka)

When compared to 2019 NHK exit poll in terms of party support

          2019     2021
LDP       44        43
KP           6         5
JRP          2         3
DPP         8         3
CDP       11       17
RS           0         1
SDP         1         1
JCP          4         4


Fits the overall narrative that LDP-KP support fell 2%-3% from 2019 and most likely is comparable to 2017.

The new info is the anti-LDP lean of independents is growing stronger.

Also this exit poll is very bad news for DPP and their prospects on the PR slate.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election (99% of the vote counted)
CDP-DPP independent    47.3% (called by NHK as the winner)
LDP-KP                         44.2%
JCP                                8.5%

The gap grew as I thought.  Most likely this will be close to the final result.

山口(Yamaguchi) Upper House by-election (98% of the vote counted)
LDP-KP                         75.6%
JCP                               22.8%
PNHK                              1.6% (famous Youtuber for childish practical jokes)

In both races, the LDP candidate did about 1% better than the exit polls projected.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) winner by city/township/village.  The East (LDP)-West (Opposition) divide is strark.

[jaichind]

The 静岡(Shizuoka) defeat comes at the worst time for the LDP.  In the last week before the Lower House elections, the media coverage will be all about "crisis for LDP" "crisis for Kishida" with pictures of LDP kingpins with long faces while coverage of the CDP will be "could CDP come to power?" with pictures of beaming CDP leaders.

The main danger of the media narrative is it could activate the long-dormant anti-LDP independent bloc.  This group of voters came out in 2007 and 2009 to vote for DPJ and in 2012 partially came out to vote JRP.  After Abe returned to power this group of voters gave up and disengaged from politics.  This media narrative could trigger their return next Sunday.

The LDP lost 静岡(Shizuoka) by 3.5%.  I think they rather lose by 6% but lose it back in August than lose by 3.5% now.  They could have swept the result under the rug and blamed Suga if it had been in August.  A defeat, however narrow, will be reported in the media as a defeat and now the media narrative for the last week is set.

What can LDP do:  I think they can only double down on "Communist !! Communist !! Communist !!".  It is too late to come up with some positive messages such as economic growth or economic redistribution or make Japan influential on the world stage.  To come out with a new theme like that the last week of the election will seem fake and opportunist.  They can only go after CDP on their alliance with JCP which they have been doing the last couple of weeks and hope that the 静岡(Shizuoka) result shows that there is a significant anti-LDP anti-JCP vote out there that voted against the LDP in 静岡(Shizuoka) because the JCP ran separately but would vote LDP once they see that the CDP and JCP are in alliance in said district.

[jaichind]

All eyes will now focus on the 静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election this Sunday (山口(Yamaguchi) Upper House by-election is a foregone conclusion.)   It will be LDP vs CDP-DPP backed independent vs JCP.    It is sort of like the VA governor race later in early Nov.  If the LDP wins by less than 3% it will be a morale booster for the Opposition.  If CDP-DPP wins it will be a shock result and hit LDP hard right before the Lower House election.  If the LDP can win by more than 5%-6% it will show that the national environment is still solidly in favor of the LDP and gives them confidence heading in the Lower House elections next Sunday.

A premonition for the Nov 2nd VA gubernatorial election?

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election (counting done)
CDP-DPP independent    47.5% 
LDP-KP                         44.0%
JCP                                8.5%

山口(Yamaguchi) Upper House by-election (counting done)
LDP-KP                         75.6%
JCP                               22.7%
PNHK                              1.7% (famous Youtuber for childish practical jokes)

[Logical]

What can LDP do:  I think they can only double down on "Communist !! Communist !! Communist !!".  It is too late to come up with some positive messages such as economic growth or economic redistribution or make Japan influential on the world stage.  To come out with a new theme like that the last week of the election will seem fake and opportunist.  They can only go after CDP on their alliance with JCP which they have been doing the last couple of weeks and hope that the 静岡(Shizuoka) result shows that there is a significant anti-LDP anti-JCP vote out there that voted against the LDP in 静岡(Shizuoka) because the JCP ran separately but would vote LDP once they see that the CDP and JCP are in alliance in said district.

They've been endlessly screaming "RIKKEN KYOSANTO! KYOSANTO!! KYOSANTO!!!" for weeks now but the needle has actually moved against them. So I doubt doing it louder would help. The only hope for the LDP is another foreign policy crisis like a provocation by North Korea or China.

[jaichind]

One outstanding mystery is: Where is the Asahi poll and projection?   It is already past Sunday night of the weekend before the election and there is still nothing from now.  Either their projection is very positive or very negative for the LDP and they are debating internally before they release it.  Or they are cheating and waiting for the result of the 静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election results before they pick the version of their projection to release tomorrow.

[Tintrlvr]

静岡(Shizuoka) winner by city/township/village.  The East (LDP)-West (Opposition) divide is strark.

This is really an urban-rural divide. The eastern part of Shizuoka-ken is rural but the western part is the cities of Shizuoka and Hamamatsu.

[CascadianIndy]

JX out with some new polls today:

Osaka City PR Voting Intention

JRP：30.1% (+4.8%)
LDP：17.3% (-0.3%)
CDP：9.3% (+3.8%)
JCP：6.8% (-1.2%)
KP：5.3% (-3.2%)

Kyoto City PR Voting Intention

LDP：23.9% (-1.8%)
JCP：15.1% (+2.8%)
CDP：12.4% (-1.9%)
JRP：11.7% (+5.6%)
KP：5.3% (+1.8%)

Kobe City PR Voting Intention

LDP：23.4%(-0.8%)
JRP：17.4%(+1.9%)
CDP：16.2%(+2.1%)
JCP：6.3%(-0.2%)
KP：5.4%(-0.4%)

https://www.asahi.co.jp/abc-jx-shuinsen2021/

[CascadianIndy]

Fuji News Network has results after they conducted a survey at the midway point of the campaign.

LDP → Chances to have a simple majority (233 seats) alone is small.
KP → Maintaining the predicted number of seats before election began.

CDP → Possibility of adding 30 seats (potential end result around 140 in seat count, total).
JCP → Growth primarily concentrated in PR Bloc seats.
JRP → Tripled the strength before the election began.
DPFP → Struggling hard in FPTP districts, impossible to imagine them maintaining their 8 seats pre-election.
SDP → Maintaining their seat in the FPTP district.
Reiwa → Doing as expected in the PR Bloc vote.
PNHK → Nowhere for them to get a seat.

[CascadianIndy]

Not sure if those factor in the Shizouka HoC by-election result.

Anyways, here's my current judgement of the campaigns so far at the midway point!

LDP: Midding, bleh campaign until yesterday's by-election. Seems like the problem might not just be Suga, but the party itself. After Shizuoka, I think it's gone from middling to subpar, though the floor hasn't fallen out yet. Expect Abe, Amari, and Aso to spend the next week yelling RIKKEN KYOSAN so loudly that someone tries to sue them for defamation. Floor of 200 seats, ceiling of 255, leaning towards the former more than the latter now.

KP: No big jumps forward but not getting dragged down by extension of the LDP either. Might end this election with more leverage than they had coming into it, especially if it gets really bad for Kishida on election night and he has to form an actual coalition. I expect them to get mid-20s to low 30s in the seat count (exciting, I know)

CDP: Seems to be doing well in the FPTP districts (oppo. consolidation goes brrrrrrr) but meh in PR Bloc. Still likely to gain seats nevertheless, and after Shizouka's bloody nose, might outperform my originally low expectations of around 120 seats. Floor of 120-something, ceiling of 160 on their realistic best night.

JCP: Almost guaranteed to take a hit in the national FPTP vote because of pulling out so many candidates it makes the 2009 roster look whole. That being said, they're gambling that the PR Bloc seats they'll get as a result of FPTP United Opposition, PR JCP voters will get them in a better position compared to where they started from. Floor of 14, ceiling in low 20s. Personally, I'm keeping an eye on Kyoto's 1st for a potential (semi) long shot pickup.

DPFP: The rump of a rump party ain't doing so hot. Shizuoka might be a good morale booster but I'm skeptical they end the election with more seats than they came in with. Maybe a future merger with the JRP is in the cards? I don't know, I'm just spitballing. Floor at 4 seats, ceiling at 6.

JRP: On track for a really good night if all things hold up. Looks like they might wipe everyone else off the map barring a few stragglers in Osaka, and seem to be doing surprisingly well in the Kinki (and to an extent Chugoku??) PR Bloc vote. May be vital to the plans of anybody looking to form government if Kishida somehow manages to screw the pooch to hell and back. Floor of 24, ceiling in the mid-30s.

SDP: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. They'll keep Okinawa's 2nd but that's basically it. Bets on when they might fold into the CDP?

RS: After Taro Yamamoto nearly kamikazed the hopes and dreams of the Opposition in Tokyo's 8th, he seems to have undergone some character development and pulled back a lot. I think he'll make it into the HoR by way of PR Bloc in Tokyo, and maybe one or two more people follow him along. Floor of 0, ceiling of 3 on their best night.

PNHK: Genuinely no idea what these guys have been up to. Regardless, almost certainly not getting a seat, district or PR-wise.

[jaichind]

Fuji News Network has results after they conducted a survey at the midway point of the campaign.

LDP → Chances to have a simple majority (233 seats) alone is small.
KP → Maintaining the predicted number of seats before election began.

CDP → Possibility of adding 30 seats (potential end result around 140 in seat count, total).
JCP → Growth primarily concentrated in PR Bloc seats.
JRP → Tripled the strength before the election began.
DPFP → Struggling hard in FPTP districts, impossible to imagine them maintaining their 8 seats pre-election.
SDP → Maintaining their seat in the FPTP district.
Reiwa → Doing as expected in the PR Bloc vote.
PNHK → Nowhere for them to get a seat.

They are using the same underlying data that forms the basis of the Yomiuri, Nikkei, and Mainichi.  If you go seat by seat and PR bloc by PR bloc and take the median projection of these 3 media outfits you get

             District         PR          Total
LDP          161            67          228
KP               8            23            31
JRP            14            17            31
DPP             5              1              6
CDP           89            51          140
RS              0              1              1
SDP            1              0              1
JCP             1             16           17
Ind.           10                           10 (5 pro-LDP 5 pro-Opposition)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

Which matches the FNN projection almost exactly.  All this shows is that FNN is reading the data roughly the same way as  Yomiuri and Nikkei while deviating from the way Mainichi is reading the data.