Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

A bunch of local 長野(Nagano) media polls for the prefecture done by JX over time gives a sense of the shifting fortunes of the LDP

PR vote
                   LDP      KP       CDP       JCP
July 2-4       22.5     3.7      28.3       9.5      (Suga led LDP on the eve of Tokyo assembly elections)
Sept 3-5      24.9     3.0      28.1      10.0     (Right after Suga steps down)
Oct 10-12    26.3     5.0      26.8      10.0     (Right after Kishida becomes PM)
Oct 19-20    22.6     5.1      27.3       9.7      (Election campaign kicks off)

It seems by the second half of Oct most of the bounce from Suga stepping down has dissipated but not completely gone.  But the momentum seems to be running against LDP.  Still, it seems LDP is still better off with Kishida than with Suga.

[CascadianIndy]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/local/kanagawa/news/20211021-OYTNT50109/

Yomiuri Shimbun Kanagawa Poll, October 19th-20th

Kishida Cabinet Approval/Disapproval

Approval 40
Disapproval 38

Party Approval

LDP 38
CDP 18
JCP 6
KP 5
JRP 3

PR Bloc Voting Intention

LDP 37
CDP 25
JCP 9
KP 7
JRP 6

Voting Intention Among Independents

CDP 25
LDP 14
JRP 8
JCP 8
Won't Disclose 10

Will you go and vote?

Definitely will vote 79
Somewhat will 13

For CDP, Komeito, and JCP supporters, all of them had more than 85% of them answering that they would definitely go vote. The number was 79% amongst LDP supporters. 69% of non-partisan respondents also answered that they would definitely go (54% in the previous election). By age group, 83% who answered they would definitely go vote were 70 years old or older, and the lowest were 18-29 years old, which was at 66%.

[Logical]

Shizuoka byelection turnout

Early voting 15.04%

Up to 11 00   9.91%
Up to 14 00  17.98%
Up to 16 00  22.37%

Looks like turnout will exceed 40%. Last time in 2019 final turnout was 50.49%.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election turnout as of 6PM

                    2021          2019
6PM             26.91%      30.35%
8PM                              35.95%
Early vote    15.04%      14.53%
Total                             50.48%

Looks like we are headed toward 46%-47% which is reasonably high given that it is a by-election.  Note that in 2019 the turnout was a near-record low for an Upper House election.  

I suspect when polls close at 8 PM exit polls will have it too close to call but if you eyeball their projection LDP is slightly ahead.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll from 10/19-10/20 of Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval by prefecture

Urban prefectures in the Greater Tokyo area like 東京(Tokyo) 埼玉(Saitama) 神奈川(Kanagawa) do not look that good especially 東京(Tokyo).  They look more like old lean opposition prefectures like 宮城(Miyagi), 福島(Fukushima), 新潟(Niigata) and 愛知(Aichi).  東京(Tokyo)  looks more like 京都(Kyoto) which is really bad news for the LDP.  They have to hope that the JRP will split off some of the anti-LDP vote.

The rural and Southern areas look much better for him, especially his home prefecture of 広島(Hiroshima) where it looks more and more like a LDP sweep there.

[jaichind]

Voting over. Exit polls out.  CDP-DPP backed independent ahead by 4%-5%.  Huge blow to LDP if true.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) News exit poll has 20% of the LDP and KP supporters voting for the CDP-DPP backed independent while CDP and DPP supporters voted en bloc for the CDP-DPP backed independent.  Independent voters also voted strongly for the  CDP-DPP backed independent.  JCP voters voted for the JCP candidate of course. 

LDP headquarters must be freaking out.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll has  CDP-DPP backed independent ahead but does not call the race yet.

[Lachi]

Jesus and this is WITH JCP in the race as well?

[jaichind]

In super LDP stronghold 山口(Yamaguchi) Upper House by-election it is LDP 75 JCP 25.  Actually given that it is 山口(Yamaguchi) it is not a bad result for JCP.  It seems some of the CDP votes did come out for JCP.

[Logical]

Hamamatsu City and Western Shizuoka where the pro opposition governor was strong in May had 3-4% higher turnout so I'm not too surprised. What should frighten the LDP is they only won about 20% of the independent vote.

[jaichind]

Jesus and this is WITH JCP in the race as well?

I think that was a feature and not a bug.  静岡(Shizuoka) is right next to 愛知(Aichi) where the anti-JCP Rengo is pretty strong.  DPP in his region is fairly anti-JCP.  So had there been a CDP-JCP alliance and DPP persuaded not to run a candidate a good part of the DPP/Rengo vote might have gone LDP.  If the CDP-DPP backed candidate beat the LDP candidate by 5% with JCP in the race I assume they would have won with JCP not running.  But I am not sure the gap would have been that different.  The local CDP made a call to secure the DPP-Rengo vote over winning the JCP vote.  It actually worked.

[jaichind]

Hamamatsu City and Western Shizuoka where the pro opposition governor was strong in May had 3-4% higher turnout so I'm not too surprised. What should frighten the LDP is they only won about 20% of the independent vote.

Agreed on the independent vote going 72% for the CDP-DPP backed independent is the thing LDP has to worry about the most.  The governor race had an anti-LDP incumbent running.  Incumbency advantage is pretty strong in Japan especially for governor and mayor races so the fact that LDP lost that race earlier this year should in no way imply they should have lost this race.  This is a race the LDP should have won, especially with JCP in the fray.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One has to wonder how inefficient the LDP vote might be this time around. Doing better in Chugoku doesn't do much when you are losing most of the key marginals.

[jaichind]

One has to wonder how inefficient the LDP vote might be this time around. Doing better in Chugoku doesn't do much when you are losing most of the key marginals.

Which was the case I sort of made during the LDP Prez race that LDP better elect Kono if they want to avoid losing a bunch of seats.  The exact argument is that Kono is a good fit for helping LDP win urban Northern marginal seats.   That is separate from the fact that I also personally back Kono.  We will see next weekend what the damage is.

[jaichind]

It seems that the local 静岡(Shizuoka) News exit polls have the CDP-DPP backed independent ahead by 5%-6% while the national media exit polls have it more like 2%-3%.  We will have to count the vote to be sure that he has won.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) exit poll has an east-west divide with LDP ahead in the East and way behind in the West.

In terms of Lower House district seats

East - 4th 5th 6th
Center - 1st 2nd 4th
West - 3rd 7th 8th

6th is considered competitive but CDP was expected to win.  8th is considered a tossup with LDP slight edge.  It seems LDP is likely to lose the 8th and have a shot at winning 6th.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for 静岡(Shizuoka) also has CDP-DPP backed independent by 5% or so.  It seems as some of the early counts comes in that confirm this trend NHK will call it for him.

[jaichind]

I think in retrospect one advantage for the CDP-DPP backed independent is that early voting for the Lower House election next week took place at the same time as early voting for this week.  So many anti-LDP voters that choose to do early voting for the Lower House election also voted in the Upper House by-election.  But if that helps explain this upset it is also very ominous news for LDP on what the enthusiasm gap will look like for early voting and most likely election day next Sunday.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll from 10/19-10/20 of Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval by prefecture

Urban prefectures in the Greater Tokyo area like 東京(Tokyo) 埼玉(Saitama) 神奈川(Kanagawa) do not look that good especially 東京(Tokyo).  They look more like old lean opposition prefectures like 宮城(Miyagi), 福島(Fukushima), 新潟(Niigata) and 愛知(Aichi).  東京(Tokyo)  looks more like 京都(Kyoto) which is really bad news for the LDP.  They have to hope that the JRP will split off some of the anti-LDP vote.

The rural and Southern areas look much better for him, especially his home prefecture of 広島(Hiroshima) where it looks more and more like a LDP sweep there.

So in 静岡(Shizuoka)  where it seems the LDP will be upset by a margin of most likely around 5% the Kishida cabinet approval is 43/35.  If so and if we can ignore any personal factors in this race (which is very risky in Japan since the personal factor of the candidates plays a huge role) then this seems disastrous news for other marginal prefectures where the Kishida cabinet approval numbers are worse than 静岡(Shizuoka).

[jaichind]

There is already growing speculation on the Japanese internet that next week will see LDP well below majority by itself and even though LDP-KP along with pro-LDP independents should get a majority.   They further speculate that suchlosses suffered by the LDP would mean that Kishida might have to resign making him the shortest tenured PM in modern Japanese history.

[kaoras]

Considering that most japanese don't want the LDP to actually lose, could this result scare them into voting LDP?

[jaichind]

Considering that most japanese don't want the LDP to actually lose, could this result scare them into voting LDP?

This is very possible and would be the reason not to over extrapolate this result.  On the other hand in Japan, there is also a fairly high conformity bias, which means that marginal anti-LDP voters might be activated to come out Sunday once they discover they are not alone.

[jaichind]

If 静岡(Shizuoka) exit polls end up being the result then the LDP has lost ground even though a lower turnout by-election should favor them

2019 results
LDP       38.6% (elected)
DPP       29.4% (elected)
CDP       19.9%
JCP          9.0%
PNHK       3.2%

Note here the dynamics of the race are different with 2 winners elected.  With the LDP candidate being the top vote-getter for sure the race was really a DPP vs CDP race for second place with LDP, KP, and JRP voters tactically voting for one of the two they favor.

2016 results
LDP           44.3%  (elected)
DP             41.0%  (elected)
JCP            10.2%
Ind(Left)      3.2%
HRP             1.2%
 
This seems a better comparison to the by-election with one Center-Left candidate.  Still, the dynamics of the race with 2 winners also meant that some of the LDP, JRP, and KP vote most likely tactically vote for the DP candidate to ensure the JCP does not make it into the top two.  Even with this dynamic its seems LDP today will underperform its 2016 result.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election (3% of the vote counted) (all rural)
LDP-KP                         50.1%
CDP-DPP independent    41.3%
JCP                                8.7%

Once the urban votes come in this will shift


山口(Yamaguchi) Upper House by-election (14% of the vote counted) (mostly rural)
LDP-KP                         79.6%
JCP                               19.0%
PNHK                              1.4% (famous Youtuber for childish practical jokes)