Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election count (62% in)

Center-Left     65.2%
LDP                24.2%
JCP                  7.5%
Independent     0.9%
PNHK               0.8%  (COVID-19 denialist, COVID-19 vaccine conspiracist)
Independent     0.7% (promises to be Chiba's Biden and proposed to Tokyo governor Koike on live TV)
Independent     0.5% (promises to to make all of Chiba into Disneyland)
Independent     0.4% (proposed to actress on live TV)

Outstanding vote heavy lean 千葉市(Chiba City) where the Center-Left candidate was mayor.  When that comes in the Center-Left candidate will most likely be above 70% matching exit polls.  What a blowout.

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election exit polls

Electorate party support

LDP         42
KP            3
JRP           2
DPP          1
CDP        12
SDP          1
JCP           4

KP should be at least 13 it not 15.  Most of them are hiding out as LDP voters. 

Center-Left candidate who was 千葉市(Chiba City) mayor and have cross-partisan appeal won 60% of the LDP vote.

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election count (87% in)

Center-Left     69.0%
LDP                20.8%
JCP                  6.2%
Independent     1.0%
PNHK               1.0%  (COVID-19 denialist, COVID-19 vaccine conspiracist)
Independent     0.8% (promises to be Chiba's Biden and proposed to Tokyo governor Koike on live TV)
Independent     0.7% (promises to to make all of Chiba into Disneyland)
Independent     0.5% (proposed to actress on live TV)

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election count (94% in)

Center-Left     69.9%
LDP                19.9%
JCP                  6.3%
Independent     1.0%
PNHK               0.9%  (COVID-19 denialist, COVID-19 vaccine conspiracist)
Independent     0.8% (promises to be Chiba's Biden and proposed to Tokyo governor Koike on live TV)
Independent     0.7% (promises to to make all of Chiba into Disneyland)
Independent     0.6% (proposed to actress on live TV)

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election count done (turnout 39%)

Center-Left     70.5%
LDP                19.2%
JCP                  6.1%
Independent     1.0%
PNHK               1.0%  (COVID-19 denialist, COVID-19 vaccine conspiracist)
Independent     0.8% (promises to be Chiba's Biden and proposed to Tokyo governor Koike on live TV)
Independent     0.8% (promises to to make all of Chiba into Disneyland)
Independent     0.6% (proposed to actress on live TV)

So the "4 clowns" of the 千葉(Chiba) governor election together got around 3.2% of the total vote.

In  千葉市(Chiba City) mayor where it is an open seat as the current mayor ran for governor it is

Center-Left      59.7%
LDP                 27.6%
JCP                 12.6%

The coattails of the current  千葉市(Chiba City) mayor and now governor are quite impressive.

[jaichind]

Party alignment by age

LDP (dark purple) is strongest with the 80+ group
CDP (dark blue) is strongest with the 70s group
JCP (light blue) is strongest with the 70s and 80+ group
KP (light purple) is strongest with 80+ group
JRP (yellow) is strongest with the 30s group
RS (light green) is strongest with the 20s group

youth which usually votes LDP (voting wise the most anti-LDP group is 60s) is fairly non-aligned

[jaichind]

ex-LDP MP and old crony of Abe 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) from 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd district admitted to vote buying in court.  He did reject conspiracy charges that he conspired with his wife, former Upper House MP for 広島(Hiroshima) (who has already been convicted for vote buying).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I've been to Chiba Prefecture and it's not what I'd call natural turf for the post-2012 remnants of the Japanese left. I get that Kumagai was an extremely strong candidate and forged a lot of political alliances, though; did he have an especially good COVID record as Mayor of Chiba City or something?

[jaichind]

I've been to Chiba Prefecture and it's not what I'd call natural turf for the post-2012 remnants of the Japanese left. I get that Kumagai was an extremely strong candidate and forged a lot of political alliances, though; did he have an especially good COVID record as Mayor of Chiba City or something?

熊谷俊人(Kumagaya Tosh**to) as mayor of  千葉市(Chiba City) had a lot of cross partisan appeal. He was especially skilled in making deals with KP and the 竹下(Takesh**ta) faction of LDP.   In the governor race the KP did not endorse the the LDP candidate which is de facto endorsement of  熊谷俊人(Kumagaya Tosh**to).  Also a 千葉(Chiba) LDP Upper House MP from the 竹下(Takesh**ta) faction also endorsed 熊谷俊人(Kumagaya Tosh**to).  Since prefecture governor races are in theory non-partisan the LDP Upper House MP was able to get away with this without party discipline.

Of course the scale of the defeat is a complete failure of the 千葉(Chiba) LDP and post election there is a great sense of fear and unease in the LDP in 千葉(Chiba) about what awaits them in the general election later this year.

[jaichind]

More governor election news.

The news governor race will be April 4th for 秋田(Akita).  This is a must win for Suga since he is himself from 秋田(Akita).  The pro-LDP incumbent if facing off against pro-Center-Left former MP and JCP candidate.  The non-JCP opposition candidate 村岡敏英 (Muraoka Toshihide) has a LDP background and is the son of a local LDP MP.  When he was not nominated by the LDP for his father's seat he bolt from the LDP, joined the extreme Right nationalist SPJ which in turn merged into JRP.   He was elected on a best loser PR slate in 2012 and 2014.  After JRP split up he went to the short lived rightist JRP splinter VOR before joining HP and losing in 2017 on the HP ticket.   He is now a pro-DPP independent.  The pro-LDP incumbent will most likely win but it would be interesting to see what vot share 村岡敏英 (Muraoka Toshihide) can win.

The April 11th 福岡(Fukuoka) governor race for an open seat will turn out to be boring as the LDP got its act together and consolidated around one pro-LDP candidate and will face off against a pro-JCP candidate.  There was a risk of several LDP rebels jumping in but the 福岡(Fukuoka) LDP managed to talk them out of it.

In July there will be a governor race in 兵庫(Hyōgo).  It is not clear if the pro-LDP incumbent will run for re-election but there is already a splint in the LDP.  The pro-LDP lieutenant governor has resigned and announce that he will run no matter what which pretty much says there will be a split in the LDP.  11 members of the prefecture LDP caucus resigned from LDP to form their separate bloc to support the lieutenant governor



The good news for the LDP is that  兵庫(Hyōgo) is one of its safest prefecture.  Its proximity to Osaka means JRP is strong here.  This means the non-LDPKP non-JCP  space is evenly split between JPR and the Center-Left opposition leaving LDP to sweep all races.  Before the rise of JRP  兵庫(Hyōgo) was one of the weaker LDP prefectures but now it is one of the strongest due to the split opposition.

[jaichind]

長野(Nagano) is due to have an Upper House by-election April 25th due to death of CDP incumbent due to COVID-19 back in Dec 2020.  

A PR poll by a local media house for 長野(Nagano) is not good for LDP

LDP    29%
KP       5%
JRP      4%
DPP     2%
CDP   34%
RS       1%
SDP     2%
JCP    10%

The 2019 Upper House PR vote was

LDP               31.95%   
KP                 10.51%   
JRP                 5.27%
Center-Left    37.96%   
JCP               11.09%

The Center-Left (mainly CDP) are clearly outperforming their 2019 numbers where LDP-KP seems to have fallen a bunch since 2019.  JCP also seems to be outperforming as well.

[jaichind]

Map of opposition candidates under the tactical CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP alliance

Background colors = represents the de facto joint opposition candidate  
Blue - CDP
Orange - DPP
Purple - SDP
Red - JCP (almost all unwinnable seats)
Grey - pro-Opposition independent
White - no joint opposition candidate yet (usually because LDP is so strong even JCP does not seem to want to bother coming up with a candidate)

In reality the alliance does not hold in many non-marginal seats where the LDP is going to win anyway.  The color of the district name shows places where an alliance partner is in the fray against the "official" joint opposition candidate.

So a square where it is Blue have have red colored name of the district means CDP is the "official" joint opposition candidate but JCP will also run.

[jaichind]

Voting ends in 秋田(Akita) governor election.  Election called right away for pro-LDP incumbent.  Center-Right leaning opposition candidate did not seem to have come close.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for 秋田(Akita) governor election shows pro-LDP incumbent won by a narrow margin over pro-DPP Center-Right opposition candidate and failed to cross 50%.   Its a victory for Suga in the prefecture he is originally from but not a great looking victory

[jaichind]

Exit poll for 秋田市(Akita City) mayor election also shows pro-LDP incumbent barely beating pro-CDP challenger and also failing to clear 50%.  Third party candidate actually leans anti-LDP.   


All things equal these exit polls are not good news for LDP.

[jaichind]

秋田(Akita) governor count (13% in)

pro-LDP incumbent      53.1%
pro-DPP center-right    34.9%
JCP                              7.6%
pro-wind power ind.      4.4%

Count so far lean rural areas.  Once urban vote comes in the LDP edge will decrease.

[jaichind]

秋田(Akita) governor count (35% in)

pro-LDP incumbent      53.9%
pro-DPP center-right    36.8%
JCP                              6.1%
pro-wind power ind.      3.2%

Still mostly rural or town, nothing from  秋田市(Akita City) yet.

[jaichind]

秋田(Akita) governor count (71% in)

pro-LDP incumbent      49.3%
pro-DPP center-right    39.7%
JCP                              6.1%
pro-wind power ind.      4.9%

More urban votes came in, pro-LDP incumbent below 50%.  Some 秋田市(Akita City) votes came in but not a lot.

[jaichind]

秋田(Akita) governor count (84% in)

pro-LDP incumbent      48.6%
pro-DPP center-right    41.1%
JCP                              5.7%
pro-wind power ind.      4.6%

More 秋田市(Akita City) votes came in.  Pretty all that is left are 秋田市(Akita City) votes.

[jaichind]

秋田(Akita) governor count (95% in)

pro-LDP incumbent      48.3%
pro-DPP center-right    42.2%
JCP                              5.1%
pro-wind power ind.      4.5%

More 秋田市(Akita City) votes came in.  秋田市(Akita City) mostly done.  Results mostly matches exit polls.

[jaichind]

NHK 秋田(Akita) governor exit poll had party support at

LDP    47
KP       3
JRP      2
DPP     1
CDP   10
SDP     1
JCP      2

There are clear defections from the LDP-KP vote base away from the pro-LDP incumbant.

[Lachi]

United opposition candidate wins in Kodaira

https://twitter.com/STcdp0511/status/1378714451776471045?s=20

[xelas81]

秋田(Akita) governor count (13% in)

pro-LDP incumbent      53.1%
pro-DPP center-right    34.9%
JCP                              7.6%
pro-wind power ind.      4.4%

Count so far lean rural areas.  Once urban vote comes in the LDP edge will decrease.

Is the pro-wind power candidate also anti nuclear?

[jaichind]

秋田(Akita) governor count (13% in)

pro-LDP incumbent      53.1%
pro-DPP center-right    34.9%
JCP                              7.6%
pro-wind power ind.      4.4%

Count so far lean rural areas.  Once urban vote comes in the LDP edge will decrease.

Is the pro-wind power candidate also anti nuclear?

Yes, implicitly

[jaichind]

United opposition candidate wins in Kodaira

https://twitter.com/STcdp0511/status/1378714451776471045?s=20

小平市(Kodaira) is in Tokyo.  This was a mayor by-election.  What is key is the opposition candidate was backed by a CDP-DPP-JCP alliance.  DPP and JCP being in the same alliance is much more rare these days since the split of the DPP last year when DPP became an anti-JCP pro-JRP rump.