Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[Conservatopia]

Why does Rengo back DPP when they would have more influence if aligned with CDP?
Plus DPP seems somewhat right-leaning so why would a union prefer them to the centre-left?

[jaichind]

Why does Rengo back DPP when they would have more influence if aligned with CDP?
Plus DPP seems somewhat right-leaning so why would a union prefer them to the centre-left?

Because Rengo is fairly conservative on social issues and very anti-JCP.  Rengo often competes with the JCP unions to recruit workers into their respective unions.  The analogy is not perfect but imagine

DPP/Rengo - Joe Manchin
CDP - Kamala Harris-AOC
JCP - Bernie Sanders

Rengo already have grave concerns about the Left wing of CDP on social issues but the CDP-JCP alliance is a deal breaker for backing the merger of the rump DPP into CDP.  In fact the reason why rump DPP even survives is because it has support of anti-JCP Rengo.  Without Rengo rump DPP would have become nil and absorbed into CDP.

The thing that is weird is DPP working on a separate alliance with Right Libertarian JRP whose free market economic position would conflict with Rengo union.  But I guess JRP fits the bill of non-LDP and anti-JCP for Rengo as an ally.

[jaichind]

One critical factor in CDP's attempt to flip seats this coming election is to get JCP to stand down and back the CDP candidate in marginal districts.  There are clear reasons why this helps.  The JCP PR voter is much more likely by large margins to vote for CDP than LDP.  

But the reasons go beyond that.  Back in 2017 I did an analysis of PR vote share in every district and tried to map them to district level results.  I took candidate quality into account to come up with a model on how vote shares flowed.  What I found (detailed writeup below) was:

a) If a quality Center-Left/Centrist opposition candidate ran against LDP without JCP in the fray, as expected, the JCP PR vote went to the opposition candidate AND there are signs that LDP-KP PR voters also would defect in small numbers to the opposition
b) But even if you put a quality Center/Center-Left/ opposition candidate ran against LDP with JCP in the fray not only does the opposition candidate miss out on the JCP PR vote but the level of LDP-KP PR defection to the opposition candidate is nearly nil.  In fact in such cases Center-Left PR votes sometimes defect to LDP

I think what is going on is what the Chinese call 鯰魚效應(Catfish effect  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catfish_effect ) where Chinese fishermen in order to keep fish they caught fresh inject a catfish into the other fish.  The catfish being a predator of the fish caught chases around the fish and the act of trying to escape the catfish actually keeps the fish alive longer.

In this case the LDP-KP and even sometimes Center-Left PR see red when the JCP candidate is in the fray.  So in such cases when a JCP candidate is in the fray they just rush to vote LDP "to defeat JCP" even though the JCP candidate had no chance anyway and the race is between the LDP and Center/Center-Left candidate.  So in this case the JCP candidate is the catfish that "activates" LDP support.

Given this CDP has to prioritize giving no hope seats to JCP to run so JCP backs out in marginal seats.

There are a bunch of interesting takeaways that any opposition party should take away from this PR based fair value vote share.

1) Avoid battles like LDP vs Centrist Opposition vs JCP as much as possible.  In fact LDP vs Center-Right Opposition vs Center-Left opposition is actually better in many cases.  This is counter-intuitive since if there is only one Centrist opposition and JCP is not viable then there should be tactical voting for the Centrist opposition to defeat LDP.   In fact what seems to take place is the JCP brand is so toxic that JCP running means that many anti-JCP Centrist voters are so scared that the Centrist opposition is a dud and that as a result JCP could win that they all rush to vote LDP knowing that the LDP has a solid base and can be counted to to defeat LDP.

2) Try to have LDP vs Centrist opposition.  This is obvious since the Centrist opposition needs to consolidate the entire anti-JCP vote.  But this combination also avoids dealing with anti-JCP tactical voting for LDP from 1).  In fact even if it is LDP vs Centrist opposition (backed by JCP) it seems to work out well for the opposition.  It seems the Centrist and Center-Right anti-JCP electorate is negative on the JCP brand but not really the JCP policies.  It seems that even if the Centrist opposition candidate adopted policies to attract JCP support it does not seem to impact his or her ability to capture these anti-JCP voters.

3) As mentioned before LDP vs Center-Right Opposition vs Center-Left Opposition (backed by JCP) seems to work to the benefit of the opposition, more likely the Center-Left Opposition.  It is the same theme, not having JCP  in the fray keeps the anti-JCP tactical vote for LDP away.

4) The worst combination is LDP vs Centrist party but with Right wing candidate vs JCP. Here on paper the Right wing candidate from a Centrist Party should be in a strong position to win since he or she can appeal to LDP-KP marginal voters.  In fact it works the other way.  A Right-wing opposition candidate means that Center-Left opposition party voters will vote JCP.  The anti-JCP vote knows that this will take place and a) loses faith that Right-wing opposition candidate  can even win and b) is freaked out by the fact the JCP vote share will go up and becomes even more determined to vote LDP.  The result is a complete collapse of the Right-wing opposition candidate vote as it loses support on both sides to LDP and JCP.

5) KP might be a source of seats for the opposition if the Centrist opposition has the guts to take it on.  KP's brand seems to be even more toxic than JCP. KP always loses a large chunk of  LDP votes when it runs.  The reason KP wins is because it has connections to various Center-Right and Centrist opposition parties so they do not run against KP.   Often it just become KP vs JCP where because the KP base it can draw upon (LDP KP and other Center-Right and even Centrist opposition votes) is much larger than JCP and the JCP toxic brand does not help.  But if the Center-Left or even Centrist Opposition parties decides to take on KP in a seat that KP decides to run in where it is not a LDP-KP stronghold KP could be beaten.

So net net , the opposition jobs next round of elections is to by hook or crook make sure JCP does not run in single seat districts.  In 2016 that worked out well for the opposition and could have benefited the Centrist opposition more if it was more successful in 2017 to do this in more districts.  

[jaichind]

Latest 毎日(Mainichi) poll has Suga cabinet approval stabilizing around the mid 30s but its PR vote intentions results are not good for LDP

LDP   28
KP      3
JRP     8
DPP    2
CDP  13
RS      2
JCP     5

For the LDP poll below the mid 30s the PR vote is fairly problematic.  The good news for the LDP is that other than JRP the rest of the parties are polling where they should be so most of the LDP fall in support are going to JRP and mostly to undecided.  LDP could still get these votes back.

[jaichind]

朝日 (Asahi) poll has Suga cabinet approval/disapproval steady at 34/43



PR vote intentions has LDP dropping back a bit but still good for an implied LDP-KP PR vote of around 45-46 which should be enough for a solid victory although not 2/3 majority

Change from Jan poll

LDP    37 (-2)
KP        6 (--)
JRP       8 (--)
PNHK    1 (--)
DPP      2 (--)
CDP    16 (--)
RS       2 (--)
SDP     1 (+1)
JCP      7 (+2)

[jaichind]

In another blow to the LDP, LDP MP for 千葉(Chiba) 13th district, 白須賀貴樹(Shirasuka Takaki), resigned from LDP for the most recent scandal where he went out to a restaurant with a women (who I guess is not his wife) for two hours after the recommended hour during lockdown.  Just to be clear the scandal is being out during lockdown and not being out with a women that is not his wife.

千葉(Chiba) 13th district was expected by many including myself to flip to CDP this time around but this made it more likely.  I guess at one level the winners out of all this might be other LDP MPs 南関東(South Kanto) region that might lose their own race.  Now there will be one less LDP district loser to compete with them for a PR seat under the best loser method.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Does Nippon Ishin have any growth potential or are they doomed to remain the Kansai Party? Also, how does their foreign and economic policy compare with that of the LDP? I was under the impression that the biggest differences are geographic but are there major areas of disagreement?

[jaichind]

Does Nippon Ishin have any growth potential or are they doomed to remain the Kansai Party? Also, how does their foreign and economic policy compare with that of the LDP? I was under the impression that the biggest differences are geographic but are there major areas of disagreement?

JRP is right wing Libertarian but are hawkish when it comes to North Korea.  Think of a Rand Paul with a hawkish foreign policy.    They are different from LDP in term of a) they are anti-nuclear power vs pro-nuclear power for LDP b) they are very strong for decentralization of federal power c) that are fairly socially liberal.  

These are the positions of the national JRP.  But the core of JRP is of course based in 大阪(Osaka) and their long term vision is to work for decentralization of power followed by a JRP controlled 大阪(Osaka) becoming the capital of Western Japan followed by JRP becoming the main ruling party in Western Japan.  

The 大阪(Osaka) tilt of JRP makes it hard to expand outside of that prefecture. They are able, on the PR slate, pick up some Right libertarian votes as well as some disgruntled LDP voters but for now it is no more then that.  JRP polling tends to go up when LDP geos down so on the long run their goal should be the smashing of the LDP even though ideologically they are on the opposite side of parties like CDP and JCP.  

[jaichind]

City assembly election for 大分市(Ōita City) which is the largest city in 大分(Ōita) today.  Another setback for LDP losing 3 seats (15->12) while CDP (2->3) and JRP (0->1) gain one each.  The independents which were evenly split between pro-LDP and non-LDP forces it seem shifted slightly toward non-LDP.  LDP-KP should still control the city assembly after adding in the pro-LDP independents but the margin of control will be much smaller.



大分市(Ōita City) is in 大分(Ōita) 1st district and this result bodes well for pro-CDP independent to flip back this seat which he held in 2003 2005 2005 2009 and 2014 but lost in 2012 and 2017.  This time around he seems fairly confident of winning that he is giving up running as CDP which means giving up being elected on the CDP PR slate as part of the best loser method.

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election will take place 3/21.  This will be an open seat.  So far there are many protest party candidates but the 3 mains one are a pro-LDP (LDP member of the prefecture assembly) vs pro-Center-Left (current mayor of the capital 千葉市(Chiba City) vs JCP candidate.

The outgoing governor is pro-LDP even though he was originally from the JSP Right wing splinter DSP (think of it as a non-Osaka proto-JRP) and had defected to LDP back in the late 1990s.  It seems the outgoing governor became unpopular toward the end of his term (mostly likely related to dealing with COVID-19) and that is impacting the chances of the pro-LDP candidate.

The Center-Left candidate as mayor of 千葉市(Chiba City) was fairly popular and was able to get support from the LDP voters there seems to been able to also get some cross partisan support from the LDP. 

As a result this race so far seems like leans Center-Left over LDP despite JCP being in the fray.  LDP will have its work cut out for it to avoid another embarrassment for Suga in 千葉(Chiba) governor election.

[jaichind]

pro-JRP おとな研究所 (Adult Research Institute) projection for next Lower House elections

             District        PR         Total
LDP          191          64          255
KP               9          22            31
JRP              9          19           28
DPP             6            1             7
CDP           67          56          123
RS              0            2              2
SDP            1            0              1
JCP             1           12           13
IND             5                           5  (4 Opposition, 1 LDP rebel)
----------------------------------------------
               289         176         465

Their take is that JRP will gain from LDP CDP and DPP in terms of PR vote just like CDP will gain PR votes from JCP.


Their Dec 2020 projection was

             District        PR         Total
LDP          209          68          277
KP               9          23            32
JRP            10          21            31
DPP             6            0             6
CDP           51          48            99
RS              0            3              3
SDP            1            0              1
JCP             1           13           14
IND             2                           2  (both opposition)
----------------------------------------------
               289         176         465

[jaichind]

Looks like there will be an election for 福岡(Fukuoka) governor 4/11.  The pro-LDP incumbent which was re-elected in 2019 stepped down very recently due to health reasons.  This unexpected election is provoking conflict between different LDP factions (mostly between 麻生(Aso) faction and non-Aso factions) in the prefecture and it seems we are headed toward an election where there will likely be 2 or more pro-LDP candidates.  The good news for the LDP is that the opposition lack a face to take on the LDP so the election will be mostly a between different pro-LDP rivals.

[jaichind]

Latest polling averages has Suga Cabinet approval stopping its fall and rebounding a bit


Approval of dealing with COVID-19 also rising from very low levels


LDP support (Green) also rebounding a bit


CDP support(light blue) also rising while JRP support (light green) falling.  It seems LDP rebound is clawing back support it lost to JRP last couple of months

[jaichind]

4/25 there will be a by-election for 長野(Nagano) Upper House seat.  The incumbent 羽田 雄一郎(Hata Yūichirō) who was elected in 2019 in the DPP ticket but had joined CDP as part of CDP-DPP merger passed away due to COVID-19.  羽田 雄一郎(Hata Yūichirō) was the son of former JRP (pro-Ozawa LDP splinter Japan Renewal Party) PM 羽田 孜(Hata Tsutomu).

It seems CDP will nominate 羽田次郎(Hat Jirō), younger brother of the incumbent.  It seems that the politics of dynasty is alive and well in the opposition camp as the LDP camp.  Most likely 羽田次郎(Hat Jirō) will win over the LDP candidate due to sympathy factor and the power of the Hata family in 長野(Nagano).

[jaichind]

社会調査研究 (Social Research Center) poll in several Northeastern prefectures on party support

福島(Fukushima)

LDP    32
KP       4
JRP      3
DPP     1
CDP   18
RS       1
SDP     1
JCP      8


宮城(Miyagi)

LDP    32
KP       6
JRP      3
DPP     1
CDP   16
RS       1
SDP     1
JCP      6


岩手(Iwate)

LDP    31
KP       3
JRP      2
PNHK   1
DPP     1
CDP   14
RS       1
SDP     3
JCP      6

If true then other than 岩手(Iwate) these numbers are problematic for LDP especially  福島(Fukushima) where HP was strong in 2017 and it seems in 2019 part of the 2017 HP vote shifted to LDP.  This poll seems to show that the 2017 HP vote is swinging away from LDP again.

[jaichind]

Suga cabinet approval curve continues to get better and he will most likely above water soon


LDP support (Green) going up but so is CDP support(Blue)

[jaichind]

日経(Nikkei) poll on PR vote.  47% would consider voting for LDP on PR.  18% would consider voting for JRP, 16% would consider voting for CDP, 12% would consider voting for KP, 6% would consider voting for JCP, and 6% would consider voting for DPP

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election a week from now.  In theory this is a 3 way race between pro-Center Left candidate, pro-LDP candidate and JCP.   It seems the pro-Center Left candidate has the edge and should win over the pro-LDP candidate which is rare in an open seat.

There are 5 minor party candidates with 4 of them being fairly colorful candidates in the mix.

2 of these minor party candidates actually proclaimed their love for a women and proposed to them on their official election statement on NHK.

First we have 河合悠祐(Kawai Yusuke) who decided to give his statement dress as a clown and promised that if elected he will turn 千葉(Chiba) in Disneyland
 



Then we have 加藤健一郎(Kato Kenichiro) who ran warning Japan about getting involved in a future USA-PRC conflict and promised to be the Biden of 千葉(Chiba).  He also proclaimed his love for current Tokyo governor Koike and proposed to her in his official campaign statement




A third candidate 平塚正幸(Hiratsuka Masayuki) is mostly running on a COVID-19 vaccine conspiracy theory claiming that all vaccines are poisonous.




A forth candidate 後藤輝樹(Goto Teruki) also proclaimed his love to and proposed to an actress in his official campaign statement.

[jaichind]

Political analyst 松田馨(Matsuda Kaori) came out with his current projection of election if held right now

         District   PR      Total
LDP    188       68      256
KP         6       22        28
JRP        9       17        26
DPP       6         2          8
CDP     72       52      124
RS         0        1          1
SDP       0        0          0
JCP       1       14        15
Ind       7                     7 (I suspect 3 pro-LDP, 2 pro-DPP, 2 pro-CDP)

KP down to 6 district seats is a shock.  This project has JRP surging in the PR vote while RS surge of 2019 dissipating while SDP completely washed out.  JCP also falls in support which benefits CDP.

LDP + KP + JRP is just around 2/3 majority.

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election voting done.  Center-Left candidate called as the winner by NHK as polls closed so it was not even close.

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election exit polls show a missive landslide for the Center-Left candidate at over 70% of the vote and the pro-LDP candidate at below 20%.  Turnout was very low so it seems pro-LDP vote did not bother coming out in what many saw as an foregone conclusion.

The various controversial minor party candidates got almost nothing between them despite high level of media coverage.

[jaichind]

For the LDP to be beaten in an open seat for a governor election by such a margin is very unusual.

[jaichind]

Exit polls for 千葉市(Chiba City) also shows a defeat of the LDP candidate by the Center-Left candidate by a wide margin even though JCP is in the mix to split the anti-LDP vote.

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election count (21% in)

Center-Left     61.8%
LDP                28.3%
JCP                  7.8%
PNHK               0.5%  (COVID-19 denialist, COVID-19 vaccine conspiracist)
Independent     0.4%
Independent     0.4% (promises to to make all of Chiba into Disneyland)
Independent     0.3% (promises to be Chiba's Biden and proposed to Tokyo governor Koike on live TV)
Independent     0.3% (proposed to actress on live TV)

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election count (49% in)

Center-Left     63.6%
LDP                25.2%
JCP                  7.6%
Independent     1.0%
PNHK               1.0%  (COVID-19 denialist, COVID-19 vaccine conspiracist)
Independent     0.7% (promises to be Chiba's Biden and proposed to Tokyo governor Koike on live TV)
Independent     0.5% (promises to to make all of Chiba into Disneyland)
Independent     0.4% (proposed to actress on live TV)

Since the prelim count only report result if a candidate is above a certain vote threshold in a district the later the early count tends to underestimate minor party candidates.  So now the minor candidate vote count has risen from earlier in the count.