Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

For 8 member Setagaya City (世田谷区) exit polls has a TPFA surge and LDP-KP dip but mostly along expected lines

TPFA JCP LDP CDP CDP TSN KP LDP.  With JRP RS and LDP in 9th 10th and 11th trying to get into the top 8. 

[jaichind]

Shibuya City (渋谷区) (2- member) was expect to be LDP CDP but a TPFA surge make it TPFA CDP according to exit polls where LDP was pushed to 4th place.  TPFA nominating 2 candidates did not work but did to seem to hurt them.  Amazing.

[Lachi]

Have you got a working live stream link? the one on the NHK site is still saying that it'll be live once the program starts

[jaichind]

Have you got a working live stream link? the one on the NHK site is still saying that it'll be live once the program starts

Nope, ended for me as well.  They are just going over exit poll by district is what I am guessing.  But I have access to them anyway

https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/togisen/2021/exitpoll/?utm_int=detail_contents_news-link_001

[jaichind]

Unless there was a massive exit poll miss I think KP could lose up to 6-7 seats.  This is a historic disaster for KP.  Remember that  Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections are the MOST important election for KP.  Heads are going to roll in KP high command if these are the result. 

[jaichind]

Asahi exit poll has

LDP     30-40
KP       17-23
TPFA    25-34
JCP      16-23
CDP     11-19
TSN       0-2
JRP        0-2
Ind        3-5   (most likely 1-2 for Minor Left and 2-3 for pro-TPFA ind)



What is worse for LDP-KP is that there are a lot of LDP-KP marginal seats so LDP-KP will end up with a seat count of the 50s, well below majority. 

[Logical]

From the NHK exit poll

Koike Approval
64% Approve
36% Disapprove

Olympics
38% No spectators
26% Cancelled
21% Agree with current policy
10% Postponed again
5% No restriction on audiences

Cabinet approval
39% Approve
61% Disapprove

Looks like the fundamentals win out in the end.

[jaichind]

If you just take the NHK exit polls by district and take who is ahead in them you get

LDP               39
LDP rebel        1
KP                10 !!!!
JRP                 2
TPFA             32
Pro-TPFA Ind   3  (or TPFA rebel)
CDP              16
TSN                2
Minor Left       1
JCP              21

So even NHK does not believe their own district results which has KP at 10 seat.  They seems to also factor in a shy KP vote effect. The main problem is if KP is to get more seats it is mostly at the expense of LDP so LDP seat count could be lower than 39.

[Lachi]

Wtf is happening, this is nothing like what I was expecting to see coming into tonight?

[jaichind]

Wtf is happening, this is nothing like what I was expecting to see coming into tonight?

I think Koike being "ill" and going into the hospital had the opposite effect than I expected.  I thought it would be seen a a cynical ploy to avoid offending LDP-KP which means the the anti-Olympics vote will go to CDP-JCP while LDP voters would see this as an abandonment of TPFA and vote LDP.  Instead it created a sympathy factor for Koike which got reflected onto TPFA.  Also the anti-Olympics crowd did end up seeing TPFA as a viable anti-LDP alternative and the CDP base did partly vote for TPFA.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

Asahi now has it at  28 out of 127 called


LDP-KP          9
LDP                 4
KP                   5

TPFA+            9
TPFA                8
pro-TPFA Ind    1

Opposition    10
CDP                5
TSN                1
Minor Left       1
JCP                3


3 main blocs around the same.  In the end LDP-KP will be bigger than Opposition alliance which will be bigger than TPFA bloc but the gap will not be that large between the three of them if exit polls are believed.

[jaichind]

One deviation from NHK exit poll already

Chiyoda City (千代田区) - this is where the Imperial Palace is located and the most prestigious district. LDP should have the edge here but it is said that not all LDP factions are behind the LDP candidate and some might defect to TPFA.

NHK exit poll has LDP ahead of TPFA by a small but significant margin
 

But Asahi already called it for TPFA as polls closed. So the two exit polls clearly have different views on this.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll on party support 2017 vs 2021



LDP went from 32 to 31 while CDP went from 8 (DP in 2017) to 11. TPFA went from 14 to 8 while KP went from 6 to 7 and JCP stayed at 8.  If anything with LDP-KP alliance this should mean LDP-KP solid victory.  It seems a lot of the LDP vote went over to TPFA.

[jaichind]

In 7- member Nerima City (練馬区) the NHK projection seems to be even worse that exit polls

Exit poll had CDP TPFA JCP LDP KP TPFA LDP with minor Left and LDP in 8th and 9th place



But so far NHK has called CDP TPFA PTFA KP JCP as winners and the LDP candidates are not called.  LDP nominated 3 candidates and if the minor Left surges ahead might end up with 1 seat.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

Asahi now has it at  36 out of 127 called


LDP-KP           14
LDP                   9
KP                    5

TPFA+            10
TPFA                 9
pro-TPFA Ind     1

Opposition     12
CDP                6
TSN                1
Minor Left       1
JCP                4

[jaichind]

From the NHK exit poll

Koike Approval
64% Approve
36% Disapprove

Olympics
38% No spectators
26% Cancelled
21% Agree with current policy
10% Postponed again
5% No restriction on audiences

Cabinet approval
39% Approve
61% Disapprove

Looks like the fundamentals win out in the end.

No spectator position which is TPFA position is larger than expected which partly explains TPFA overperformance.

[jaichind]

Toshima City (豊島区) called by Asahi as TPFA JCP KP.

NHK exit poll had it as TPFA JCP LDP


So we can be sure that NHK exit poll is to negative for KP.  if so this will be a bad but not catastrophic night for KP but the night is going very badly for LDP.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

Asahi now has it at  49 out of 127 called


LDP-KP           20
LDP                 11
KP                    9

TPFA+            14
TPFA                13
pro-TPFA Ind      1

Opposition      15
CDP                 6
TSN                 1
Minor Left        1
JCP                 7

[jaichind]

https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/togisen/2021/

NHK has 50 out of 127 called

LDP-KP           17
LDP                 13
KP                    4

TPFA+            15
TPFA                14
pro-TPFA Ind      1

Opposition      18
CDP                 6
TSN                 1
Minor Left        1
JCP                10

[Lachi]

JRP lose out in Kita, Komei win the last seat

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

Asahi now has it at  63 out of 127 called


LDP-KP           27
LDP                 15
KP                   12

TPFA+            17
TPFA                16
pro-TPFA Ind      1

Opposition      19
CDP                 7
TSN                 1
Minor Left        1
JCP               10

KP doing better than exit polls, mostly at the expense of LDP and in some cases JRP and JCP.

[Lachi]

LDP out of Bunkyo, JCP gain there

[jaichind]

NHK now also has Akishima (昭島市) and Chiyoda City (千代田区) both going to TPFA. Both are big blows to LDP.

[jaichind]

LDP out of Bunkyo, JCP gain there

The big surprise here is that TPFA winning.  CW has JCP somewhat ahead of TPFA for the second seat but LDP will win one for sure.  Instead it is TPFA and JCP winning. Another disaster for LDP

[Lachi]

CDP seems scared of another Koike national party forming

立憲民主党幹部は「小池百合子、恐るべし」と語り、都民ファーストの勢いが予想以上だったことを強調